Do you think we get three more KU storms before this winter is over

[ORH_wxman]

I left out 12/19/09....10.0" at BOS...def a KU. But the point remains the same.

[famartin]

I think it has to do with ariel coverage. Some of those southern storms still killed VA and further south and west...the BOS storms get such a small area they can't get on the scale.

I might agree if their NESIS was higher. But two of the 1987 events have NESIS values below 2. Meanwhile, their 10+ coverage is similar to some other storms on the moderate list (compare Jan 25-27 1987 with Feb 2-4 1996... the coverage is almost identical (with isolated higher totals in 1996 and a wider are of 4-10" coverage in the urban corridor, and a higher NESIS).

If there's any storm that should be dropped from the KU main list and dumped in either "near miss" or "moderate", its Jan 25-27 1987. It really doesn't belong on the main list. It was just grandfathered in.

[A-L-E-X]

Wow, some of the near miss and moderate are ranked higher than the proper list-- more disorganized than I thought. Thanks for the list, Ray. Jan 1987 and Feb 1987 are two lower "outliers" lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow, some of the near miss and moderate are ranked higher than the proper list-- more disorganized than I thought. Thanks for the list, Ray.

Keep in mind that its the NESIS site and its different than the KU book. Its weird that they are different because KU came up with all of this, but they rank the storms a bit differently. The maps in the KU book are different too. The NESIS site is very conservative for their snow amounts and do not always match the Kocin snow amounts. Frequently they are less. They have a horrific amount of coverage for some of these New England storms while Kocin's maps are much better in the book.

[famartin]

Keep in mind that its the NESIS site and its different than the KU book. Its weird that they are different because KU came up with all of this, but they rank the storms a bit differently. The maps in the KU book are different too. The NESIS site is very conservative for their snow amounts and do not always match the Kocin snow amounts. Frequently they are less. They have a horrific amount of coverage for some of these New England storms while Kocin's maps are much better in the book.

No, all the NESIS values I listed are taken from KU verbatim.

[ORH_wxman]

No, all the NESIS values I listed are taken from KU verbatim.

I've seen major differences in the maps....snowfall wise. I think someone posted earlier that the original KU paper had slightly different rankings, but most of them were the same.

But the maps are definitely different, make no mistake about it. The NESIS maps are much more conservative.

[A-L-E-X]

Keep in mind that its the NESIS site and its different than the KU book. Its weird that they are different because KU came up with all of this, but they rank the storms a bit differently. The maps in the KU book are different too. The NESIS site is very conservative for their snow amounts and do not always match the Kocin snow amounts. Frequently they are less. They have a horrific amount of coverage for some of these New England storms while Kocin's maps are much better in the book.

Hopefully one of these days Kocin will publish the list on his website with the correct snowfall amounts mapped out (they were conservative on the last storm too.)

If I had made that list I would be pissed off that someone else was using it and messed up the numbers (thereby making me look bad) lol.

[famartin]

I've seen major differences in the maps....snowfall wise. I think someone posted earlier that the original KU paper had slightly different rankings, but most of them were the same.

But the maps are definitely different, make no mistake about it. The NESIS maps are much more conservative.

That's nice, but what I'm saying is that the list I just made was ripped right out of KU volume 2. Pure copying from paper.

[ORH_wxman]

That's nice, but what I'm saying is that the list I just made was ripped right out of KU volume 2. Pure copying from paper.

Oh ok, well I wasn't disputing your ranking...I was commenting on the snowfall amounts to ALEX....they are lower on the NESIS maps than the KU book. The rankings generally do not change (except a couple tweaks from the original KU paper)....because the amounts are low on every storm for the NESIS site compared to the KU book.So most storms get bumped up the same amount, so the ranking won't change.

[famartin]

I might agree if their NESIS was higher. But two of the 1987 events have NESIS values below 2. Meanwhile, their 10+ coverage is similar to some other storms on the moderate list (compare Jan 25-27 1987 with Feb 2-4 1996... the coverage is almost identical (with isolated higher totals in 1996 and a wider are of 4-10" coverage in the urban corridor, and a higher NESIS).

If there's any storm that should be dropped from the KU main list and dumped in either "near miss" or "moderate", its Jan 25-27 1987. It really doesn't belong on the main list. It was just grandfathered in.

<New Jersey punk-ass voice>

"Yeah, yeah, that's right, I had "the bible" right here in front of me when I was writing this, comparing them directly. Wanna make something of it???"</New Jersey punk-ass voice>

[A-L-E-X]

<New Jersey punk-ass voice>

"Yeah, yeah, that's right, I had "the bible" right here in front of me when I was writing this, comparing them directly. Wanna make something of it???"</New Jersey punk-ass voice>

lol ok Mister Situation

[famartin]

Added in individual city airport snowfall totals:

The KU list "proper":

18-20 March 1956
NESIS - 2.23
BOS: 13.2"   LGA:  9.3"   NYC: 11.6"   JFK:  N/A	PHL:  8.7"   BWI:  5.5"   DCA:  1.7"   IAD:  N/A

14-17 February 1958
NESIS - 5.98
BOS: 19.4"   LGA: 10.1"   NYC:  7.9"   JFK:  N/A	PHL: 13.0"   BWI: 15.5"   DCA: 14.4"   IAD:  N/A

18-21 March 1958
NESIS - 3.92
BOS:  6.7"   LGA: 10.5"   NYC: 11.8"   JFK:  N/A	PHL: 11.4"   BWI:  8.4"   DCA:  4.8"   IAD:  N/A

2-5 March 1960
NESIS - 7.63
BOS: 19.8"   LGA: 15.5"   NYC: 14.6"   JFK: 14.3"   PHL:  8.4"   BWI: 10.5"   DCA:  7.9"   IAD:  N/A

10-13 December 1960
NESIS - 4.47
BOS: 13.0"   LGA: 11.0"   NYC: 15.2"   JFK: 12.2"   PHL: 14.6"   BWI: 14.1"   DCA:  8.5"   IAD:  N/A

19-20 January 1961
NESIS - 3.47
BOS: 12.3"   LGA:  8.6"   NYC:  9.9"   JFK:  8.0"   PHL: 13.2"   BWI:  8.4"   DCA:  7.7"   IAD:  N/A

2-5 February 1961
NESIS - 6.24
BOS: 14.4"   LGA: 19.0"   NYC: 17.4"   JFK: 24.1"   PHL: 10.3"   BWI: 10.7"   DCA:  8.3"   IAD:  N/A

11-14 January 1964
NESIS - 5.74
BOS:  9.2"   LGA:  9.9"   NYC: 12.5"   JFK: 13.6"   PHL:  7.2"   BWI:  9.9"   DCA:  8.5"   IAD: 10.2"

29-31 January 1966
NESIS - 5.05
BOS:  6.3"   LGA:  5.5"   NYC:  6.8"   JFK:  6.0"   PHL:  8.3"   BWI: 12.1"   DCA: 13.8"   IAD:  9.8"

23-25 December 1966
NESIS - 3.79
BOS:  5.7"   LGA:  5.6"   NYC:  7.1"   JFK:  6.7"   PHL: 12.7"   BWI:  8.5"   DCA:  7.0"   IAD:  9.2"

5-7 February 1967
NESIS - 3.82
BOS:  9.5"   LGA: 12.9"   NYC: 15.2"   JFK: 10.9"   PHL:  9.9"   BWI: 10.6"   DCA: 10.3"   IAD: 11.8"

8-10 February 1969
NESIS - 3.34
BOS: 11.1"   LGA: 16.1"   NYC: 15.3"   JFK: 20.2"   PHL:  2.9"   BWI:  3.3"   DCA:  1.0"   IAD:  5.0"

22-28 February 1969
NESIS - 4.01
BOS: 26.3"   LGA:  2.0"   NYC:  1.3"   JFK:  1.6"   PHL:  1.9"   BWI:  0.3"   DCA:	T	IAD:  1.5"

25-28 December 1969
NESIS - 5.19
BOS:  4.2"   LGA:  7.4"   NYC:  6.8"   JFK:  6.1"   PHL:  5.1"   BWI:  6.1"   DCA:  5.1"   IAD: 12.1"

18-20 February 1972
NESIS - 4.19
BOS:  6.3"   LGA:  6.3"   NYC:  5.7"   JFK:  3.4"   PHL:  3.7"   BWI:  3.2"   DCA:  5.5"   IAD: 10.0"

19-21 January 1978
NESIS - 5.90
BOS: 21.4"   LGA: 11.0"   NYC: 13.6"   JFK: 14.2"   PHL: 13.2"   BWI:  5.6"   DCA:  4.1"   IAD:  7.5"

5-7 February 1978
NESIS - 6.25
BOS: 27.1"   LGA: 14.4"   NYC: 17.7"   JFK: 13.7"   PHL: 14.1"   BWI:  9.1"   DCA:  2.2"   IAD:  1.2"

18-20 February 1979
NESIS - 4.42
BOS:  0.0"   LGA:  9.0"   NYC: 12.7"   JFK: 10.2"   PHL: 14.3"   BWI: 20.0"   DCA: 18.7"   IAD: 16.3"

5-7 April 1982
NESIS - 3.75
BOS: 13.3"   LGA:  8.2"   NYC:  9.6"   JFK:  8.0"   PHL:  3.5"   BWI:	T	DCA:	T	IAD:	T 

10-12 February 1983
NESIS - 6.28
BOS: 13.5"   LGA: 22.0"   NYC: 17.6"   JFK: 21.7"   PHL: 21.3"   BWI: 22.8"   DCA: 16.6"   IAD: 22.8"

21-23 January 1987
NESIS - 4.93
BOS:  5.3"   LGA: 11.3"   NYC:  8.1"   JFK:  7.7"   PHL:  8.8"   BWI: 12.3"   DCA: 10.8"   IAD: 11.1"

25-27 January 1987
NESIS - 1.70
BOS:  3.3"   LGA:  2.8"   NYC:  3.5"   JFK:  3.4"   PHL:  4.1"   BWI:  9.6"   DCA:  9.2"   IAD: 10.2"

22-24 February 1987
NESIS - 1.46
BOS:	T	LGA:  3.5"   NYC:  4.2"   JFK:  6.1"   PHL:  6.8"   BWI: 10.1"   DCA: 10.3"   IAD: 12.0"

12-14 March 1993
NESIS - 12.52
BOS: 12.8"   LGA: 12.3"   NYC: 10.6"   JFK:  9.3"   PHL: 12.0"   BWI: 11.9"   DCA:  6.6"   IAD: 14.1"

8-11 February 1994
NESIS - 4.81
BOS: 26.7"   LGA: 20.1"   NYC: 21.8"   JFK: 19.7"   PHL: 10.3"   BWI:  4.6"   DCA:  3.1"   IAD:  3.5"

3-5 February 1995
NESIS - 3.51
BOS:  6.6"   LGA: 10.4"   NYC: 10.8"   JFK:  7.0"   PHL:  8.8"   BWI:  7.2"   DCA:  4.5"   IAD:  6.2"

6-8 January 1996
NESIS - 11.54
BOS: 18.2"   LGA: 23.8"   NYC: 20.2"   JFK: 20.7"   PHL: 30.7"   BWI: 22.5"   DCA: 17.1"   IAD: 24.6"

31 March-1 April 1997
NESIS 2.37
BOS: 25.4"   LGA:  0.4"   NYC:	T	JFK:  1.7"   PHL:  3.9"   BWI:  1.4"   DCA:	T	IAD:	T 

24-26 January 2000
NESIS - 3.14
BOS:  3.5"   LGA:  5.9"   NYC:  5.5"   JFK:  6.4"   PHL:  8.5"   BWI: 14.9"   DCA:  9.3"   IAD: 10.3"

30-31 December 2000
NESIS - 2.48
BOS:  0.5"   LGA: 13.7"   NYC: 12.0"   JFK: 10.5"   PHL:  9.0"   BWI:  0.0"   DCA:  0.0"   IAD:  0.0"

15-18 February 2003
NESIS - 8.91
BOS: 27.6"   LGA: 17.6"   NYC: 19.8"   JFK: 26.0"   PHL: 20.8"   BWI: 28.2"   DCA: 16.7"   IAD: 22.4"

5-7 December 2003
NESIS - 4.63
BOS: 16.9"   LGA: 13.2"   NYC: 14.0"   JFK: 12.7"   PHL:  4.8"   BWI:  6.8"   DCA:  1.7"   IAD:  6.8"

Here's the "near miss" list:

17-18 February 1952
NESIS - 2.17
BOS: 10.3"   LGA:  1.5"   NYC:  2.1"   JFK:  N/A	PHL:  0.0"   BWI:  0.0"   DCA:  0.0"   IAD:  N/A

16-17 March 1956
NESIS - 2.93
BOS:  6.7"   LGA:  7.4"   NYC:  6.7"   JFK:  N/A	PHL:  1.3"   BWI:  0.5"   DCA:  0.3"   IAD:  N/A

12-13 March 1959
NESIS - 3.64
BOS:  6.4"   LGA:  7.4"   NYC:  5.5"   JFK:  5.0"   PHL:  1.2"   BWI:	T	DCA:	T	IAD:  N/A

13-15 February 1960
NESIS - 4.17
BOS:  0.6"   LGA:  2.7"   NYC:  1.0"   JFK:  1.6"   PHL:  1.4"   BWI:  8.2"   DCA:  6.2"   IAD:  N/A

6-7 March 1962
NESIS - 2.76
BOS:  0.4"   LGA:  0.7"   NYC:  0.2"   JFK:  0.8"   PHL:  6.8"   BWI: 10.0"   DCA:  3.3"   IAD:  N/A

18-19 February 1964
NESIS - 2.39
BOS:  9.1"   LGA:  3.7"   NYC:  6.4"   JFK:  3.3"   PHL:  2.2"   BWI:  7.0"   DCA:  0.4"   IAD:  4.9"

22-24 January 1966
NESIS - 4.45
BOS:  8.5"   LGA:  1.7"   NYC:  2.4"   JFK:  1.8"   PHL:  3.5"   BWI:  2.1"   DCA:	T	IAD:  3.2"

3-5 March 1971
NESIS - 3.73
BOS:  2.2"   LGA:  2.3"   NYC:  1.3"   JFK:  2.8"   PHL:  4.3"   BWI:  2.0"   DCA:  1.1"   IAD:  1.6"

25-27 November 1971
NESIS - 2.33
BOS:	T	LGA:	T	NYC:	T	JFK:	T	PHL:	T	BWI:  0.3"   DCA:  1.0"   IAD:	T

16-18 January 1978
NESIS - 4.10
BOS:  2.9"   LGA:  2.2"   NYC:  1.7"   JFK:  1.9"   PHL:  4.4"   BWI:  2.4"   DCA:  1.0"   IAD:  1.3"

28-29 March 1984
NESIS - 1.86
BOS:  9.1"   LGA:  2.5"   NYC:  3.3"   JFK:  2.5"   PHL:  0.6"   BWI:	T	DCA:	T	IAD:  4.2"

1-2 January 1987
NESIS - 2.26
BOS:  3.1"   LGA:  0.8"   NYC:  0.5"   JFK:  0.2"   PHL:  0.7"   BWI:  0.3"   DCA:	T	IAD:  5.1"

11-12 December 1992
NESIS - 3.10
BOS:  9.2"   LGA:  0.5"   NYC:  0.4"   JFK:  0.8"   PHL:  0.0"   BWI:  0.0"   DCA:	T	IAD:  0.2"

3-4 January 1994
NESIS - 2.87
BOS:  8.9"   LGA:  1.1"   NYC:  1.0"   JFK:  0.8"   PHL:  0.6"   BWI:  0.4"   DCA:  0.5"   IAD:  1.4"

2-4 March 1994
NESIS - 3.46
BOS:  8.0"   LGA:  5.5"   NYC:  5.0"   JFK:  3.7"   PHL:  3.8"   BWI:  3.1"   DCA:  2.1"   IAD:  5.3"

Here's the "moderate" list:

4-5 December 1957
NESIS - 1.32
BOS:	T	LGA:  7.5"   NYC:  7.5"   JFK:  N/A	PHL:  5.5"   BWI:  7.8"   DCA: 11.1"   IAD:  N/A

23-25 December 1961
NESIS - 1.37
BOS: 10.0"   LGA:  3.0"   NYC:  6.2"   JFK:  4.5"   PHL:  3.2"   BWI:  5.9"   DCA:  0.5"   IAD:  N/A

14-15 February 1962
NESIS - 1.59
BOS:  7.6"   LGA:  2.4"   NYC:  2.7"   JFK:  2.1"   PHL:  4.4"   BWI:  2.1"   DCA:  0.5"   IAD:  N/A

22-24 December 1963
NESIS - 3.17
BOS:  5.4"   LGA:  7.5"   NYC:  6.6"   JFK:  3.7"   PHL:  5.2"   BWI:  8.0"   DCA:  5.6"   IAD:  7.5"

16-17 January 1965
NESIS - 1.95
BOS:  7.3"   LGA:  4.6"   NYC:  4.6"   JFK:  6.1"   PHL:  3.7"   BWI:  2.7"   DCA:  2.5"   IAD:  2.3"

21-22 March 1967
NESIS - 1.20
BOS:  1.7"   LGA:  9.0"   NYC:  9.8"   JFK:  8.6"   PHL:  4.2"   BWI:  2.0"   DCA:  0.7"   IAD:  0.7"

31 December 1970-1 January 1971
NESIS - 2.10
BOS:  4.9"   LGA:  5.7"   NYC:  6.4"   JFK:  6.0"   PHL:  5.5"   BWI:  6.0"   DCA:  9.3"   IAD: 15.4"

13-15 January 1982
NESIS - 3.08
BOS: 12.7"   LGA:  9.9"   NYC:  9.3"   JFK:  9.5"   PHL:  9.2"   BWI:  7.6"   DCA:  7.1"   IAD:  5.7"

8-9 March 1984
NESIS - 1.29
BOS:  2.1"   LGA:  8.7"   NYC:  6.9"   JFK:  6.9"   PHL:  7.3"   BWI:  4.8"   DCA:  1.5"   IAD:  4.7"

7-8 January 1988
NESIS - 4.85
BOS:  9.0"   LGA:  6.9"   NYC:  5.2"   JFK:  9.6"   PHL:  3.9"   BWI:  8.4"   DCA:  8.0"   IAD:  5.5"

27-28 December 1990
NESIS - 1.56
BOS:  1.2"   LGA:  7.3"   NYC:  7.2"   JFK:  6.1"   PHL:  6.4"   BWI:  4.8"   DCA:  3.0"   IAD:  4.7"

19-21 December 1995
NESIS - 3.32
BOS: 12.0"   LGA: 14.9"   NYC:  7.8"   JFK:  8.2"   PHL:  2.3"   BWI:  1.2"   DCA:  0.2"   IAD:  0.6"

2-4 February 1996
NESIS - 2.03
BOS:  5.0"   LGA:  8.1"   NYC:  7.5"   JFK:  8.0"   PHL:  5.1"   BWI:  8.0"   DCA:  8.4"   IAD:  8.2"

16-17 February 1996
NESIS - 1.65
BOS:  7.1"   LGA:  8.6"   NYC: 10.7"   JFK:  8.3"   PHL:  7.5"   BWI:  9.8"   DCA:  6.8"   IAD:  7.5"

14-15 March 1999
NESIS - 2.20
BOS:  4.2"   LGA:  4.6"   NYC:  4.5"   JFK:  4.4"   PHL:  4.8"   BWI:  2.7"   DCA:  0.3"   IAD:  5.4"

[earthlight]

GFS at 180 hours says we are probably headed towards a second one

[nzucker]

GFS at 180 hours says we are probably headed towards a second one

I think we could evolve an interesting gradient pattern starting next weekend, with an arctic front moving through and a potential wave forming on that front. The CPC shows the PNA going positive in that time frame which may support a larger system, especially given the cold air in place with the PV over central Canada:

I also think the arctic front may trend a little stronger with 850s approaching -20C, or at least -15C. That's a monster PV to our northwest with a core of 850s <-35C, so I'm thinking we're going to get some very cold temperatures. Given the snowpack over the region, we could see some really bitter nights if we manage to clear out following the arctic front.

[Stormlover74]

I wonder why they combined the Feb 8th and 11th event into one. I mean there was at least a 24 to 36 hour break between events to qualify as separate to me.

[famartin]

I wonder why they combined the Feb 8th and 11th event into one. I mean there was at least a 24 to 36 hour break between events to qualify as separate to me.

In NJ, yes... further south it was shorter... since KU covers all the way down to NoVa, I guess they decided to put them together (otherwise it'd probably just be two "moderate" events)

[famartin]

I may eat my words... but I'm not enthused about a BIG storm next week. I think its a fringe. Several inches, sure... KU? I really doubt it.

But again, I may eat my words...

Well I guess I'm partly eating my words. It wasn't KU in Philly, Jersey or NYC... but certainly up in SNE, it was.

[tamarack]

I wonder why they combined the Feb 8th and 11th event into one. I mean there was at least a 24 to 36 hour break between events to qualify as separate to me.

The Feb 5-7,1967 totals, for NYC anyway, are two separate events, too. The first was a several-hour heavy burst of about 3-4" (in NNJ) the morning of 6th, with the sun out that aft and stars in the evening. Act II began about 4 AM on 2/7 and continued much of the day. Coldest +SNof my NJ experience; the heaviest fell at mid singles, and wouldn't pack at all under the tires o my Dad's big Pontiac. Don't have my NYC numbers handy, but I know 2/7 was 12.5" there so 2/6 must be 2.7".