Do you think we get three more KU storms before this winter is over

[Mikehobbyst]

Hypothetical how we get there: Just WAG but who knows it might come true.

For NYC/LI area

Dec: 15-25" realized

Jan: 15-20" IF 1/7 and 1/12 events over perform to full potential and we get the 300 hour MECS that keeps showing on the GFS fantasy hype - Who knows with -AO and -NAO in control indefinately.

Feb: 20-30" IF blocking and sustainable -NAO continues all month which is very likely with it staying in control and not giving up. Can't find any model getting rid of this. 2 HECS month

Mar: 15-20" Get the finale HECS to close out the winter. Bet it delivers too and will be memorable !

Arctic airmass around the 1/17-1/23 range that will rival 77 and 94 and own them. -26C 850's and 490 dm 1000-500 thickness invasion will get us to -5F lows and single digit low teen highs for three days. I would take a hedge that this is very possible with Siberian connection. Deep Snow cover 95 percent confident to enhance it. Models all over the Siberian express for intermountain west, high plains of Dakotas, midwest and northeast taking brunt of it, but the intermountain west and high plains is the first area to receive brunt.

Who knows if spring does not start until early May with blocking likely continuing to hold and extemely cold near shore temperatures delaying true spring until May this year ? Last year was a very early green up and leaf out. This year will probably be the latest greenup in decades with trees just budding out around Memorial Day this time. It might be like living at 50 North this year, with the sun angle the only thing saving us this time for a very comfortable summer with 75-80 for weeks on end for the hottest months. I am willing to bet only 5-10 80 degree days and no 90's this summer at all.

Historic winter in progress

Miserable spring that starts in early April and goes until Memorial Day with 40-45 degree weather for weeks on end and cloudy times too. Backdoors a constant risk with cold water and residual blocking. Last spring was a treat for warm. Forget !!!! it this time. No way in @#$% it happens this year. Everything is stacked against a nice spring this year. -NAO; -AO; Cold near shore waters, and Frozen ground which will take an eternity to wake up this spring and delaying green earth severely. When it is time to verify let's see if I hit the bulls eye or completely miss. I am alright if I miss, would like to be wrong on this whole post honestly.

[famartin]

The odds of having 8 KU storms in the space of 2 years (more like 15 or 16 months) are astronomically low... particularly with the ongoing mod/strong La Nina. Its amazing that we had 1 with the La Nina as strong as it is (and of course, its all due to the blocking). Yes, I suppose another KU storm isn't impossible given the blocking... but 3? My frank opinion is, "Uh yeah nooooooooooooooooooooo..... "

[A-L-E-X]

The odds of having 8 KU storms in the space of 2 years (more like 15 or 16 months) are astronomically low... particularly with the ongoing mod/strong La Nina. Its amazing that we had 1 with the La Nina as strong as it is (and of course, its all due to the blocking). Yes, I suppose another KU storm isn't impossible given the blocking... but 3? My frank opinion is, "Uh yeah nooooooooooooooooooooo..... "

You just dont want to keep flying out here

[cleetussnow]

The odds of having 8 KU storms in the space of 2 years (more like 15 or 16 months) are astronomically low... particularly with the ongoing mod/strong La Nina. Its amazing that we had 1 with the La Nina as strong as it is (and of course, its all due to the blocking). Yes, I suppose another KU storm isn't impossible given the blocking... but 3? My frank opinion is, "Uh yeah nooooooooooooooooooooo..... "

Statistical clumping, then we see another KU in 2015

[uncle W]

From 12/19/2009 to 12/26/2010 NYC saw four major snowstorms...From 3/4/1960 to 2/4/1961 NYC saw four major snowstorms and a major hurricane...another major storm is not out of the question...the more the merrier as far as I'm concerned...

[SnowGoose69]

If I had to guess, NYC will see about 35-40 inches this winter...I think there will be 2 more minor events and one big one....so maybe a 3-4, 3-4, and then a 6-12....I still think the La Nina will make for a hostile environment as far as the overall pattern for a real big event most of the time.

[nzucker]

If I had to guess, NYC will see about 35-40 inches this winter...I think there will be 2 more minor events and one big one....so maybe a 3-4, 3-4, and then a 6-12....I still think the La Nina will make for a hostile environment as far as the overall pattern for a real big event most of the time.

I don't think so...NYC could easily hit 40" by mid January in my opinion with light snows tomorrow, a Miller A threat Wednesday, and then a SW flow threat with the arctic front towards next weekend. The long-range looks good with a -NAO block despite the Pacific blocking eventually breaking down. I think 50"+ is highly possible for Central Park this winter.

And what negative effect is the La Niña having? We just had a Miller A storm December 26th, we're getting another one early next week with a Gulf Low potentially phasing in the northern stream over the Plains. We're looking at one of the coldest winters in recent memory with December finishing at -4.5F and January looking frigid with big-time arctic air. We're getting lucky and cashing in on nickel-and-dime events that don't usually affect us from a climo standpoint. If anything, this is acting like a weak El Niño winter.

[lindywx]

I hope all of the younger posters/hobbyists/weenies are enjoying this decade in these parts because if history repeats itself there will be one or two eight year periods where you might not see a snowfall over 8". From 1970 - 1977 and from 1984- 1992 there were only a handful of 6" storms and one honorable mention KU storm in 1987. The 1972 KU storm turned to rain along the coast. So the 2000's has turned out to be one helluva decade, especially along the coast.

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

The fact that we've had a lot recently doesn't reduce the chance that we'll get another...

[uncle W]

from 3/4/1960 to 2/4/1961 (11 months) NYC saw four blizzard type storms...from 12/19/2009 to 12/26/2010 it got four storms...The pattern is ripe for another storm this week...

[uncle W]

I hope all of the younger posters/hobbyists/weenies are enjoying this decade in these parts because if history repeats itself there will be one or two eight year periods where you might not see a snowfall over 8". From 1970 - 1977 and from 1984- 1992 there were only a handful of 6" storms and one honorable mention KU storm in 1987. The 1972 KU storm turned to rain along the coast. So the 2000's has turned out to be one helluva decade, especially along the coast.

the last 11 years saw many a great snowstorm...Up until 1993 NYC averaged a 10" storm about every three years...Since 1993 we have 15 10" snowfalls in 18 years...Since 1996 NYC has five storms 20" or more...That's a 20" storm every three years on average......

[famartin]

I may eat my words... but I'm not enthused about a BIG storm next week. I think its a fringe. Several inches, sure... KU? I really doubt it.

But again, I may eat my words...

[uncle W]

I may eat my words... but I'm not enthused about a BIG storm next week. I think its a fringe. Several inches, sure... KU? I really doubt it.

But again, I may eat my words...

it's to early to forecast amounts...the odds are greatly against another major storm...1909-10 had major storms on 12/26 and 1/13...It was a la nina year...The blocking wasn't like we have this year...The last two years have been insane for snow lovers and now we want more...It's like doing coke...It's addictive...I like the chances and if it's not this week it will come later on...

[_AR_]

I may eat my words... but I'm not enthused about a BIG storm next week. I think its a fringe. Several inches, sure... KU? I really doubt it.

But again, I may eat my words...

[Isotherm]

[famartin]

Much as some would have you believe, the EC is NOT depicting a KU for Tuesday. Its a decent storm, sure... 6-10". But its not a KU. 1" QPF reports are exaggerated by those not factoring in the system today. For PHL and NYC the EC has 0.65-0.75" QPF for Tuesday.

[A-L-E-X]

Much as some would have you believe, the EC is NOT depicting a KU for Tuesday. Its a decent storm, sure... 6-10". But its not a KU. 1" QPF reports are exaggerated by those not factoring in the system today. For PHL and NYC the EC has 0.65-0.75" QPF for Tuesday.

Ray, what is the weakest KU event on the list? I've always wondered what the minimum qualifiers for that are.

[A-L-E-X]

If I had to guess, NYC will see about 35-40 inches this winter...I think there will be 2 more minor events and one big one....so maybe a 3-4, 3-4, and then a 6-12....I still think the La Nina will make for a hostile environment as far as the overall pattern for a real big event most of the time.

that big one might come in March a la 1956

[famartin]

Ray, what is the weakest KU event on the list? I've always wondered what the minimum qualifiers for that are.

There are some storms which were grandfathered in which probably shouldn't be on the list, because of the original (early 90s) monograph. For example, December 1969 is really a near miss since none of the cities really had 10+ (Dulles had 12 but National had like 5 and all the other cities had less than 10). Feb 1972 was along the same lines... Dulles had 10, but National had 6 and the other cities were less than 10. Januayy 25-27 1987 is another one like that, except that most of the snow was SE of the cities instead of NW.

KU has a bunch of events where BOS got 10+ but not much more under the "near miss" listings... that's probably where I think this storm will end up. Decent, but not KU.Then there are a number of storms where several cities got around 10 but not much more, but the 10+ area wasn't very large... they're in the moderate column. This storm could end up there too.

[A-L-E-X]

There are some storms which were grandfathered in which probably shouldn't be on the list, because of the original (early 90s) monograph. For example, December 1969 is really a near miss since none of the cities really had 10+ (Dulles had 12 but National had like 5 and all the other cities had less than 10). Feb 1972 was along the same lines... Dulles had 10, but National had 6 and the other cities were less than 10. Januayy 25-27 1987 is another one like that, except that most of the snow was SE of the cities instead of NW.

KU has a bunch of events where BOS got 10+ but not much more under the "near miss" listings... that's probably where I think this storm will end up. Decent, but not KU.Then there are a number of storms where several cities got around 10 but not much more, but the 10+ area wasn't very large... they're in the moderate column. This storm could end up there too.

I think they should define some sort of minimum limit-- something like, lets take the 5 major metro areas in the region DC-BWI, PHL, NYC, PVD, BOS..... if at least three of these gets 10 or more than it should be called a KU.

[famartin]

I think they should define some sort of minimum limit-- something like, lets take the 5 major metro areas in the region DC-BWI, PHL, NYC, PVD, BOS..... if at least three of these gets 10 or more than it should be called a KU.

It seems as if they are much more willing to put a storm on the KU list if DC metro gets 10+ than if BOS metro does. I guess that's a climo factor.

But in general, the "KU" list isn't really very conclusive... some events obviously deserve to be there, others really not, and then there is some murky area with their "near miss" and "moderate" list, some of which might be better on the main list.

[ORH_wxman]

I think they should define some sort of minimum limit-- something like, lets take the 5 major metro areas in the region DC-BWI, PHL, NYC, PVD, BOS..... if at least three of these gets 10 or more than it should be called a KU.

Its not that simple...sometimes a storm just doesn't hit certain areas but destroys others. Feb 5-6 would almost be disqualified. It got DCA/BWI/PHL but whiffed BOS/NYC.

Dec 26 wouldnt be that far from being disqualified...philly made it into the heavy stuff at the last second, but they could have easily only gotten like 6" and then that storm would have only raked BOS and NYC.

[ORH_wxman]

It seems as if they are much more willing to put a storm on the KU list if DC metro gets 10+ than if BOS metro does. I guess that's a climo factor.

But in general, the "KU" list isn't really very conclusive... some events obviously deserve to be there, others really not, and then there is some murky area with their "near miss" and "moderate" list, some of which might be better on the main list.

I think most 10"+ storms for DC hit a larger area than BOS 10"+ storms...that might be a reason. I don't think it has anything to do with the climo. If you examine most DC 10"+ storms...they end up slamming philly and often NYC and BOS (last winter not withstanding for BOS...wel even Dec 19 hit BOS hard) too.

BOS has a lot of separate exotic setups like SWFE (southwest flow events) and other late blooming storms that can give them 10" but literally nobody else benefits from it as it goes offshore....since New England sticks out to like 70W. DC is so much further W and S that when they get hit, its likely to continue to hit other areas up the coast.

[A-L-E-X]

It seems as if they are much more willing to put a storm on the KU list if DC metro gets 10+ than if BOS metro does. I guess that's a climo factor.

But in general, the "KU" list isn't really very conclusive... some events obviously deserve to be there, others really not, and then there is some murky area with their "near miss" and "moderate" list, some of which might be better on the main list.

Its not that simple...sometimes a storm just doesn't hit certain areas but destroys others. Feb 5-6 would almost be disqualified. It got DCA/BWI/PHL but whiffed BOS/NYC.

Dec 26 wouldnt be that far from being disqualified...philly made it into the heavy stuff at the last second, but they could have easily only gotten like 6" and then that storm would have only raked BOS and NYC.

Yeah, there are some special cases like that-- but you'd think they'd have to have some floor like they do with the hurricane and tornado scales. Maybe they can use some kind of areal coverage/population ratio (balance the two, so people dont get into stupid arguments over subjective things lol). What I dislike about the whole process is how "unscientific" it is, which is what leaves so much room for argument. It's a wonderful idea, but hard to put the principles into practice.

[A-L-E-X]

I think most 10"+ storms for DC hit a larger area than BOS 10"+ storms...that might be a reason. I don't think it has anything to do with the climo. If you examine most DC 10"+ storms...they end up slamming philly and often NYC and BOS (last winter not withstanding for BOS...wel even Dec 19 hit BOS hard) too.

BOS has a lot of separate exotic setups like SWFE (southwest flow events) and other late blooming storms that can give them 10" but literally nobody else benefits from it as it goes offshore....since New England sticks out to like 70W. DC is so much further W and S that when they get hit, its likely to continue to hit other areas up the coast.

Hmmm I wonder if there's any noncoastal snowstorms that are on the KU list-- obviously, it would have to have an exceptional amount of moisture to be on there.... cant think of any....maybe Jan 2004? The additional question to ask would be whats the strongest noncoastal snowstorm to hit the east coast lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Hmmm I wonder if there's any noncoastal snowstorms that are on the KU list-- obviously, it would have to have an exceptional amount of moisture to be on there.... cant think of any....maybe Jan 2004? The additional question to ask would be whats the strongest noncoastal snowstorm to hit the east coast lol.

Feb '94 wasnt really a coastal and its on there.

[famartin]

I think they should define some sort of minimum limit-- something like, lets take the 5 major metro areas in the region DC-BWI, PHL, NYC, PVD, BOS..... if at least three of these gets 10 or more than it should be called a KU.

Anyway, here's the KU list "proper":

18-20 March 1956

NESIS - 2.23

14-17 February 1958

NESIS - 5.98

18-21 March 1958

NESIS - 3.92

2-5 March 1960

NESIS - 7.63

10-13 December 1960

NESIS - 4.47

19-20 January 1961

NESIS - 3.47

2-5 February 1961

NESIS - 6.24

11-14 January 1964

NESIS - 5.74

29-31 January 1966

NESIS - 5.05

23-25 December 1966

NESIS - 3.79

5-7 February 1967

NESIS - 3.82

8-10 February 1969

NESIS - 3.34

22-28 February 1969

NESIS - 4.01

25-28 December 1969

NESIS - 5.19

18-20 February 1972

NESIS - 4.19

19-21 January 1978

NESIS - 5.90

5-7 February 1978

NESIS - 6.25

18-20 February 1979

NESIS - 4.42

5-7 April 1982

NESIS - 3.75

10-12 February 1983

NESIS - 6.28

21-23 January 1987

NESIS - 4.93

25-27 January 1987

NESIS - 1.70

22-24 February 1987

NESIS - 1.46

12-14 March 1993

NESIS - 12.52

8-11 February 1994

NESIS - 4.81

3-5 February 1995

NESIS - 3.51

6-8 January 1996

NESIS - 11.54

31 March-1 April 1997

NESIS 2.37

24-26 January 2000

NESIS - 3.14

30-31 December 2000

NESIS - 2.48

15-18 February 2003

NESIS - 8.91

5-7 December 2003

NESIS - 4.63

Here's the "near miss" list:

17-18 February 1952

NESIS - 2.17

16-17 March 1956

NESIS - 2.93

12-13 March 1959

NESIS - 3.64

13-15 February 1960

NESIS - 4.17

6-7 March 1962

NESIS - 2.76

18-19 February 1964

NESIS - 2.39

22-24 January 1966

NESIS - 4.45

3-5 March 1971

NESIS - 3.73

25-27 November 1971

NESIS - 2.33

16-18 January 1978

NESIS - 4.10

28-29 March 1984

NESIS - 1.86

1-2 January 1987

NESIS - 2.26

11-12 December 1992

NESIS - 3.10

3-4 January 1994

NESIS - 2.87

2-4 March 1994

NESIS - 3.46

Here's the "moderate" list:

4-5 December 1957

NESIS - 1.32

23-25 December 1961

NESIS - 1.37

14-15 February 1962

NESIS - 1.59

22-24 December 1963

NESIS - 3.17

16-17 January 1965

NESIS - 1.95

21-22 March 1967

NESIS - 1.20

31 December 1970-1 January 1971

NESIS - 2.10

13-15 January 1982

NESIS - 3.08

8-9 March 1984

NESIS - 1.29

7-8 January 1988

NESIS - 4.85

27-28 December 1990

NESIS - 1.56

19-21 December 1995

NESIS - 3.32

2-4 February 1996

NESIS - 2.03

16-17 February 1996

NESIS - 1.65

14-15 March 1999

NESIS - 2.20

[famartin]

I think most 10"+ storms for DC hit a larger area than BOS 10"+ storms...that might be a reason. I don't think it has anything to do with the climo. If you examine most DC 10"+ storms...they end up slamming philly and often NYC and BOS (last winter not withstanding for BOS...wel even Dec 19 hit BOS hard) too.

BOS has a lot of separate exotic setups like SWFE (southwest flow events) and other late blooming storms that can give them 10" but literally nobody else benefits from it as it goes offshore....since New England sticks out to like 70W. DC is so much further W and S that when they get hit, its likely to continue to hit other areas up the coast.

There are several KU storms that really don't follow the pattern you describe. The worst offender is Jan 25-27 1987.

[ORH_wxman]

It seems as if they are much more willing to put a storm on the KU list if DC metro gets 10+ than if BOS metro does. I guess that's a climo factor.

But in general, the "KU" list isn't really very conclusive... some events obviously deserve to be there, others really not, and then there is some murky area with their "near miss" and "moderate" list, some of which might be better on the main list.

Just to expand on my idea that when DC gets hammered with 10"+, its usually a KU....compared to BOS...here are the last 5 times BOS has record 10":

12/26/10: 18.2" (KU)

1/3/10: 10.0" (not a KU)

1/19/09: 12.4" (not a KU)

12/19/08: 12.5" (not a KU)

12/13/07: 10.5" (not a KU)

So there's 4 out of the last 5 double digit totals from BOS that didn't register as a KU. Because they didn't hit many people outside of that area....esp the larger populations of the M.A.

[ORH_wxman]

There are several KU storms that really don't follow the pattern you describe. The worst offender is Jan 25-27 1987.

I think it has to do with ariel coverage. Some of those southern storms still killed VA and further south and west...the BOS storms get such a small area they can't get on the scale.