bhow20 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BAM snow map (first call): 4-8" currently the highest contour... may add an 8-12" contour if need be on my final call. i like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 50% OTS or near miss with <1" 25% 1-4" 25% 4"+ 2nd guess: 35% OTS or near miss with <1" 45% 1-4" 20% 4"+ deterministic stays the same in snow scenario.. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2nd guess: 35% OTS or near miss with <1" 45% 1-4" 20% 4"+ deterministic stays the same in snow scenario.. 2-4" Sounds about right. I think the OTS scenario is becoming less valid (as is the silly GGEM bomb scenario). The GFS jumped pretty solidly west, even if the precip maps are still a little wimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sounds about right. I think the OTS scenario is becoming less valid (as is the silly GGEM bomb scenario). The GFS jumped pretty solidly west, even if the precip maps are still a little wimpy. i should wait to the euro but im too tired.. i guess ill hope it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think 1-4 inches 60% 4+ 35% 1 or less 5% i like my forecast for a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm still expecting a major screwjob, so I'm not changing my first guess yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just watched the weather on NBC and they mentioned rain/snow mix... I'm thinking, really? I know apparently there is some hint on the NAM of an iffy track, but in this type of pattern the rain/snow mix call seems seriously out to lunch. Wintry mix is always possible around this area, but rain? Am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 1st call 25% OTS or near miss with <1" 60% 1-4" 15% 4"+ i've been going 2-4" deterministic and will hold as most likely in the snow solution but i am tempted to back off to 1-3". however, models now currently support ~2-4" so im not sure how i can back off right now. if scaled... i'd say 1-3 west and 2-4 east (all dc metro area). confidence is rather low still. we need a few things to go right to get into range but i don't feel hope is lost and most things are progressing as planned or close. most of the snow should come as front end. even with mid levels not good for a big storm they should not keep us from getting snow entirely. final call tomorrow night or early mon depending on how lucky i feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just watched the weather on NBC and they mentioned rain/snow mix... I'm thinking, really? I know apparently there is some hint on the NAM of an iffy track, but in this type of pattern the rain/snow mix call seems seriously out to lunch. Wintry mix is always possible around this area, but rain? Am I missing something here? i think precip would shut off before we warm that much if we warm that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 3" is a decent snow total, especially if you're yet to see a snowfall that completely whitens everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 1-2 inches snow sounds reasonable given the latest models and going with this season's persistence. Someone mentioned earlier that thinking of this as an overperforming clipper makes it a lot easier to accept an inch or two on Tuesday that just manages to cover the grass. Any snow at all is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 updated forecast for BWI trace to 2", with my gut telling me <1" I must have been drinking heavily when I said 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I made a prediction of 3.6" for MBY elsewhere so I will stick with that....right or wrong it is what it is so why change it...nobody dies if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I made a prediction of 3.6" for MBY elsewhere so I will stick with that....right or wrong it is what it is so why change it...nobody dies if I am wrong. I believe you are exactly right with your prediciton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I made a prediction of 3.6" for MBY elsewhere so I will stick with that....right or wrong it is what it is so why change it...nobody dies if I am wrong. NAM says I'm right with good ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM says I'm right with good ratios GFS says not so right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 updated forecast for BWI trace to 2", with my gut telling me <1" I must have been drinking heavily when I said 3-6" Same here, a dusting is all that I expect from this. Even though I would love for those 2-4" calls to verify, this just isn't our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll go out on the proverbial limb and pray, I mean predict 1"-2" for the NoVA S/E area. I'd like to think the latest composite runs support my guess. I'm taking the 1"-2" as a prayer because I can see us getting slotted early thus keeping totals down from the 2"-4" estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like I should have keep my NC totals a little higher... snow falling with no changeover imminent just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Based on how everything is looking, I think this is going to be mostly a non event for most of us. Dusting to an inch across the area. Could be wrong, but I don't like how things are coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm tempted to wait for the Euro but unless it shows nothing I'm not sure I'd shift much at this pt. I'd almost rather go down with the ship than make a last minute shift and then end up having earlier thoughts verify. FINAL CALL 95-100% chance of snow falling 90% chance of 1"+ 10% chance of < 1" of snow All along I've been just calling for D.C. area (basically the red on this map: http://genealogenie....-matro-area.png).. I don't pretend to know enough or even care enough to do outside my immediate few counties. I'm not a map maker either. But here I'll lay it out a little more than previous. D.C. area = 2-4" (tapering to 1-3" southwest) What I would do here is lay out 2-4" from about central Loudon VA east to about Anne Arundel MD then down the west side of the bay. An overlay 1-3" from about the western 1/3rd of MoCo through fairfax county down toward Charles County and to the SW. Balt area = 3-5" (some 6"+ possible northeast of Balt and east of the bay) 2-4" area probably backs right into s/sw balt with this contour mainly from Balt and northeast. Screwed is probably easier than more for most of us except perhaps the far northeast areas. I believe the vast majority or all of the snow in the D.C. area comes from the front end of the low. I do not anticipate much if anything from wraparound or back end though we could see a little, probably only enough to top out on the higher end of the 2-4". The chance for more from the developing low that eventually pummels the northeast is why Balt area is higher. There is a slight chance (~10%) that the low develops quicker to the south and throws back enough moisture to get D.C. area more into the Balt area range. If that happens, 6+ becomes more likely up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm tempted to wait for the Euro but unless it shows nothing I'm not sure I'd shift much at this pt. I'd almost rather go down with the ship than make a last minute shift and then end up having earlier thoughts verify. FINAL CALL 95-100% chance of snow falling 90% chance of 1"+ 10% chance of < 1" of snow All along I've been just calling for D.C. area (basically the red on this map: http://genealogenie....-matro-area.png).. I don't pretend to know enough or even care enough to do outside my immediate few counties. I'm not a map maker either. But here I'll lay it out a little more than previous. D.C. area = 2-4" (tapering to 1-3" southwest) What I would do here is lay out 2-4" from about central Loudon VA east to about Anne Arundel MD then down the west side of the bay. An overlay 1-3" from about the western 1/3rd of MoCo through fairfax county down toward Charles County and to the SW. Balt area = 3-5" (some 6"+ possible northeast of Balt and east of the bay) 2-4" area probably backs right into s/sw balt with this contour mainly from Balt and northeast. Screwed is probably easier than more for most of us except perhaps the far northeast areas. I believe the vast majority or all of the snow in the D.C. area comes from the front end of the low. I do not anticipate much if anything from wraparound or back end though we could see a little, probably only enough to top out on the higher end of the 2-4". The chance for more from the developing low that eventually pummels the northeast is why Balt area is higher. There is a slight chance (~10%) that the low develops quicker to the south and throws back enough moisture to get D.C. area more into the Balt area range. If that happens, 6+ becomes more likely up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 here's nws' first zone numbers for dc so at least when i bust high i can remember i wasnt totally stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Super-bullish up here, but I like it. I will buy you dinner if I get six inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 2.5" DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Super-bullish up here, but I like it. I will buy you dinner if I get six inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My call: IAD: 1.5" DCA: 2.2" BWI: 3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggiemoo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry, Phin I jinxed us...living here in Bel Air and got a snow blower for xmas...was hoping last Saturday I could use it and didn't happen...am guessing the same for this one but who knows. Super-bullish up here, but I like it. I will buy you dinner if I get six inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Super-bullish up here, but I like it. I will buy you dinner if I get six inches. you're technically in the 3-5 area, so you could get 3 and i'd win but be dinnerless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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