Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 50% OTS or near miss with <1" 25% 1-4" 25% 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 50/50 chance for some snow. A solid 12Z suite should help with confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 progression was 80/20 no snow first then 60/40-70/30 no snow earlier today http://www.americanw...ndpost&p=230473 deterministic guess if happens would be 2-4" right now, bigger snow north / east... Bounds 0 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think 1-4 inches 60% 4+ 35% 1 or less 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 40% 1-4" 10% 4"+ 50% Coastal brush. Tr-1" DC/BA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DCA: T-2" - 20% 2-5" - 65% >5" - 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't like this set-up again, needing a phase to pull it close enough to help us. I am guessing: 65% OTS/dusting at most 30% 1-3 inches 5% 4 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 95% N Virginia To Dc To Baltimore snow hole continues with the least snow in the region. 5% There's enough snow that the snow hole crowd doesn't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I haven't seen any models since the 0Z NAM. 70% <1" 20% 1-3" 7% 3-5" 3% 5+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 40% 1-4" 10% 4"+ 50% Coastal brush. Tr-1" DC/BA. I like this given the seasonal trend, not sure why the usually stoic ellinwood is going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I like this given he season trend, not sure why the usually stoic ellinwood is going higher. Good upper-level dynamics via an entering vort max and divergence via the left-exit jet region. These will create better lift and enhance the QPF over our area (to an extent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 40% - 0-1" 30% - 1-2" 20% - 2-4" 10% - 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 P******.. 3+ inches: 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm sticking with 4-6" with a greater than 50% probablity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 100% chance that no matter how much it snows MA people will be complaining in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I like this given the seasonal trend, not sure why the usually stoic ellinwood is going higher. Good upper-level dynamics via an entering vort max and divergence via the left-exit jet region. These will create better lift and enhance the QPF over our area (to an extent). Couple things I am worried about. NOGAPS not being considered at this time...CMC also has had issues handling this system. I do think the op GFS is too suppressed. Mesoscale models are pumping in a stronger ridge both ahead of the western trough and the southern wave. For the former, the magnitude of DPVA will be enhanced as a result--hence the inverted trough extending from the northern plains and through the OV later in the forecast period. DC should see a good threat for accumulating snow under such scenario. A coastal, imo, would likely not be good. First the angle of the upper trough would not be ideal. The storm would likely be compact and it would be mostly a coastal VA threat. Second, the low level circulation would be dominated under such scenario, and the inverted trough in the low levels would be dominated by the coastal threat and DC/BA could get shafted. Something along the 06Z GFS is actually pretty decent, and considering I think it is too suppressed, perhaps 2-5" and a slight raise in pops to 45% with a 45% brush to DC/BA if a coastal gets going. A good threat this winter, nothing blockbuster, but better than nothing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 100% chance that no matter how much it snows Ji will be complaining in this thread. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Couple things I am worried about. NOGAPS not being considered at this time...CMC also has had issues handling this system. I do think the op GFS is too suppressed. Mesoscale models are pumping in a stronger ridge both ahead of the western trough and the southern wave. For the former, the magnitude of DPVA will be enhanced as a result--hence the inverted trough extending from the northern plains and through the OV later in the forecast period. DC should see a good threat for accumulating snow under such scenario. A coastal, imo, would likely not be good. First the angle of the upper trough would not be ideal. The storm would likely be compact and it would be mostly a coastal VA threat. Second, the low level circulation would be dominated under such scenario, and the inverted trough in the low levels would be dominated by the coastal threat and DC/BA could get shafted. Something along the 06Z GFS is actually pretty decent, and considering I think it is too suppressed, perhaps 2-5" and a slight raise in pops to 45% with a 45% brush to DC/BA if a coastal gets going. A good threat this winter, nothing blockbuster, but better than nothing for sure. For the CMC, big red flag comes in the way it handles the southern wave. Discussed a lot in previous posts, but the CMC handles low amplitude waves/phases/"kick-outs" poorly as it does the breakdown of longwave troughs into low amplitude waves--a general bias of the model. CMC consistently tries to weaken the southern wave then "kick it" out NE as a warm front--effectively inducing dynamic height rises in the height field and greatly increasing the magnitude of DPVA as a result. This is why the steroidal runs are developing on the CMC. That kind of amplification so early is unlikely mainly owing to the early southern wave and the way it influences the the low level moisture field and the advection patterns. Also the CMC has been awful with any consistency--a look back a couple days ago to its 12Z run is a good example as it tried to over-amplify the western trough early and send the main storm through IA and the Great Lakes. This is mostly why the CMC is being tossed at this moment in time. That said, DC folks should be happy to see a viable threat--and the threat doesn't rely on a massive coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If you follow the theory snow breeds snow... RIC 2-4 inches snow/sleet FRB 2-4 inches snow/sleet NOR 1-3 inches snow/sleet/rain DCA 1-3 inches snow BWI T-2 inches snow IAD T-2 inches snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm sticking with 4-6" with a greater than 50% probablity. i've always been in the 2-4/3-6 camp thus far if it works out but it's hard to go greater than 50% probability at this range.. maybe by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Have we learned nothing from the Xmas forecasting debacle about calling for snow amounts so far out in time during such a chaotic pattern? 50% chance of getting something 50% chance of getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Have we learned nothing from the Xmas forecasting debacle about calling for snow amounts so far out in time during such a chaotic pattern? 50% chance of getting something 50% chance of getting nothing This is a much better threat for actually getting snow though. The Christmas debacle hinged upon a very sensitive coastal bomb. Here you have a legitimate shot of snow without needing the stars to align and a monster coastal to get snow. In fact, a coastal, if it developed fast enough, would likely hurt your chances as it would dominate the inland low level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a much better threat for actually getting snow though. The Christmas debacle hinged upon a very sensitive coastal bomb. Here you have a legitimate shot of snow without needing the stars to align and a monster coastal to get snow. In fact, a coastal, if it developed fast enough, would likely hurt your chances as it would dominate the inland low level circulation. Man I wish you were around last year for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a much better threat for actually getting snow though. The Christmas debacle hinged upon a very sensitive coastal bomb. Here you have a legitimate shot of snow without needing the stars to align and a monster coastal to get snow. In fact, a coastal, if it developed fast enough, would likely hurt your chances as it would dominate the inland low level circulation. Looks like the Delmarva Peninsula may be in the sweet spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 50% OTS or near miss with <1" 25% 1-4" 25% 4"+ NWS now up to 50% off 30%. My confidence continues to increase. I believe snow is now more likely than not. I will make a second guess tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 20% OTS or near miss with <1" 30% 1-3" 45% 3-6" 5% 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NWS now up to 50% off 30%. My confidence continues to increase. I believe snow is now more likely than not. I will make a second guess tonight. Yeah, I think it is likely (60% or higher) that you guys end your snow screwzone with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 screw these %'s I say general 3-6" snow for DCA/BAL metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BAM snow map (first call): 4-8" currently the highest contour... may add an 8-12" contour if need be on my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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