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1/7/11 0z Model Run


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I know most in here are looking at the D5 threat, but if anyone in here is interested in NE....there has been a developing trend on the models tonight to potentially hit the area hard on Saturday.

looks like the euro headed pretty close (just se?) of the benchmark

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The ensemble guidance is... weird this morning. The GEFS members are almost all MORE amplified than the operational, tracking the surface low closer to the coast.

track.aeperts.2011010700.east_coast.single.gif

On the other hand, the GEM ensemble (which I like far less than the either the GEFS or the ECENS) shows a lot of right skew.

track.ceperts.2011010700.east_coast.single.gif

I can't post the Euro ensemble stuff I have, but there are still some Miller Bs popping up amongst the members. There could even be 1 or 2 JamieO specials in there. The distribution of solutions looks to be normally distributed about the ensemble mean, but the variance remains very large at this time.

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