Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think this run is close to the upper limit of what we can get. We still could get less if the 500h ends up being weaker. i like this run.. i agree this seems like it would be about our best bet. i want to believe in the 0/6z gfs but i cant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 pretty strong slp over TX thanks to the N vort hmm... Writing on the wall for a 5-10 in. snow event RIC up to BOS. Nothing more; Nothing less. I don't get the "upper limit" claim. This is the same time frame that the most NWP havoc struck during the most recent debacle. Who is not to same that a similiar situation does not develope. I'm at a loss of words for anyone has much faith in modelling this winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 insane amounts of snow if qpf is close for eastern/south central nebraska 120qpf total at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 after a big event at the end of the run, GFS starts rebuilding nicely the Greenland Block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM hits DC hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 big hit Wow! That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, GGEM looks really solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 a little ot, but it is a model today's updated CFS surface temps: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif 850 temps even colder: http://www.cpc.ncep....3/usT850Mon.gif expect FEB forecasts to start getting colder from the usual outlets I hope it has next summer right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, GGEM looks really solid. Tom says there may be precip-type issues. Still, glad to see a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Who is Tom and why do I care what he says? tombo - the guy who gives a lot of model run play-by-play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 tombo - the guy who gives a lot of model run play-by-play. The models are moving the major pieces hundreds of miles between runs. We are way too far away to worry about temps. This "taken verbatim" stuff is nonsensical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The models are moving the major pieces hundreds of miles between runs. We are way too far away to worry about temps. This "taken verbatim" stuff is nonsensical. Agree. No problem with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The models are moving the major pieces hundreds of miles between runs. We are way too far away to worry about temps. This "taken verbatim" stuff is nonsensical. In the last two winters, temperatures have NOT been an issue with the blocking in place for the I-95. I suspect that we will have a continuation of this tendency. I think a mix between the GEM and GFS tonight is the likely scenario. As said before the GEM 5-10 in. dump RIC to BOS. Maybe a pocket of 10-14 in. somwhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is pretty pimped-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In the last two winters, temperatures have NOT been an issue with the blocking in place for the I-95. I suspect that we will have a continuation of this tendency. I think a mix between the GEM and GFS tonight is the likely scenario. As said before the GEM 5-10 in. dump RIC to BOS. Maybe a pocket of 10-14 in. somwhere. nothing personal, but with that statement I'd swear you were a well respected met working out of State College, PA you don;t have to answer, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nothing personal, but with that statement I'd swear you were a well respected met working out of State College, PA you don;t have to answer, just sayin' He is PSUPete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 He is PSUPete. Ahh OK, but that does really sounds like jb's ideas on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ahh OK, but that does really sounds like jb's ideas on the storm Yea, I saw in Ji's post abou JB's forecast. After tonigh's GEM, I would not be surprised that the Euro comes around. The Euro had the system today, albeit, 200 miles further east. It always seems like the GEM can give hints at what the 00z Euro will show and tonight may be just another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I knew the nogaps was the red flag and orh said to ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I knew the nogaps was the red flag and orh said to ignore it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol We call you the NOGAPS King in the MA forum. I try to defend you but it is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tom says there may be precip-type issues. Still, glad to see a big hit. there is enough confluence NE of us to not really worry me. you have to look at more than just the low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I knew the nogaps was the red flag and orh said to ignore it. Ya. That's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We call you the NOGAPS King in the MA forum. I try to defend you but it is hard. I once said it was a red flag when the nogaps showed a far NW solution inside of 72-84 hours (and for a couple runs, not just one)....but weenies started using it at like 144 hours on an 18z run. Might as well use a dart board at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I once said it was a red flag when the nogaps showed a far NW solution inside of 72-84 hours (and for a couple runs, not just one)....but weenies started using it at like 144 hours on an 18z run. Might as well use a dart board at that range. I still remember in the late 1990's, we used the NOGAPS quite religiously as it was one of the only med. range models that we had easy access to. At that time, Eta went out to 60 HR; AVN went out to 120 or 144 hours; UK went out to 72 HR, MRF was useless and ran once in the AM I believe, and of course, the Euro ran once at night. I don't know how we did it back then. It was less stressful with all of the intermediate runs and it seemed like we saw less major shifts between runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I still remember in the late 1990's, we used the NOGAPS quite religiously as it was one of the only med. range models that we had easy access to. At that time, Eta went out to 60 HR; AVN went out to 120 or 144 hours; UK went out to 72 HR, MRF was useless and ran once in the AM I believe, and of course, the Euro ran once at night. I don't know how we did it back then. It was less stressful with all of the intermediate runs and it seemed like we saw less major shifts between runs too. I remember those days too...actually the AVN only went out to 72h back then. The MRF took over after 72h, lol (how scary is that?) ETA went out to 48h until it upgraded to 60h in 2000 I think it was. I remember the ETA upgrade because it was a huge deal it now went past 48h unlike the NGM model which stopped at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 im rooting for the euro big time tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 im rooting for the euro big time tonight I know most in here are looking at the D5 threat, but if anyone in here is interested in NE....there has been a developing trend on the models tonight to potentially hit the area hard on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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