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1/7/11 0z Model Run


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The baro zone is there, but that first wave depletes the low level moisture field/theta-E field and the GOM can't moderate it fast enough in the low levels. Low level moisture is key for rapid baroclinic development.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

A slow solution wouldn't necessarily do well either for this reason.

Hour 84 NAM is depleting it as well with the first wave pushing E/crapping out.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

Baro, thank you so much for your contributions! Based on the setup and the features, do you think the models are handling these features well, in your opinion?

I guess what I mean to say is, with your wealth of knowledge, would you say that with the current sets of data from the last several model runs, you could give us insight into the chances for a larger impact event up the coast?

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Baro, thank you so much for your contributions! Based on the setup and the features, do you think the models are handling these features well, in your opinion?

I guess what I mean to say is, with your wealth of knowledge, would you say that with the current sets of data from the last several model runs, you could give us insight into the chances for a larger impact event up the coast?

Interesting things to consider. Every setup is different, and in my opinion, the trends with the GFS were negative for a big coastal event mainly because it slowed down the western trough and was unable "capture" the low level circulation left over by the weak southern wave. However, mesoscale models (including SREF) are very amplified with the incoming jet max. NAM has a much beefier 300 hpa speed max wrt the GFS (20+ knots stronger), and were the secondary jet able to slow down enough, perhaps the GOM could moderate just enough to support stronger development with the western trough.

Slow is not good necessarily, but if it were slow enough and far enough displaced from the first southern wave...perhaps it could be good.

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My guess is this solution is about as good as we can get given the pattern. Not a big coastal but a decent hit for the mid atlantic.

If anything may be better for those inland as well since the coastal doesn't dominate the low level circulation and any coastal threat would have been compact. Coastal regions gets best snow threat but inland also gets a shot.

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