goldstar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The baro zone is there, but that first wave depletes the low level moisture field/theta-E field and the GOM can't moderate it fast enough in the low levels. Low level moisture is key for rapid baroclinic development. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false A slow solution wouldn't necessarily do well either for this reason. Hour 84 NAM is depleting it as well with the first wave pushing E/crapping out. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Baro, thank you so much for your contributions! Based on the setup and the features, do you think the models are handling these features well, in your opinion? I guess what I mean to say is, with your wealth of knowledge, would you say that with the current sets of data from the last several model runs, you could give us insight into the chances for a larger impact event up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Baro, thank you so much for your contributions! Based on the setup and the features, do you think the models are handling these features well, in your opinion? I guess what I mean to say is, with your wealth of knowledge, would you say that with the current sets of data from the last several model runs, you could give us insight into the chances for a larger impact event up the coast? Interesting things to consider. Every setup is different, and in my opinion, the trends with the GFS were negative for a big coastal event mainly because it slowed down the western trough and was unable "capture" the low level circulation left over by the weak southern wave. However, mesoscale models (including SREF) are very amplified with the incoming jet max. NAM has a much beefier 300 hpa speed max wrt the GFS (20+ knots stronger), and were the secondary jet able to slow down enough, perhaps the GOM could moderate just enough to support stronger development with the western trough. Slow is not good necessarily, but if it were slow enough and far enough displaced from the first southern wave...perhaps it could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Also worth throwing around...NCEP testing suggested the GFS--after its upgrade in July--is far too weak with jet streaks under circumstances...and that may be a possibility here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 48hr southern s/w is just slightly slower than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmm maybe its just me but it seems the theme of this winter with phasing storms is, the models tend to slow down the SW within 120 hours and then speed it back up inside like 84...lets see if that happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Would seem to me to be some pretty big changes in the GFS at 84. Don't know what that might mean later, or at the surface, but upstairs it seems different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Having said that GFS looks too fast at 84, probably wouldnt be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 105 has a sub 1016 low bout 100 miles south of cape fear..northern stream trying to come in and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 low is closer to the coast this run snow into dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS looks a good bit more amplified than 18z or 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Off the coast near cape hatter as at 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1012mb low just south of hat snow into pa so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 114 hr 0Z precip more robust than 120 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Through 102, won't be a big coastal but will definitely be better for coastal Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks to go OTS at 123 and southeast of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's not last night's 0Z, but at 120. better than any GFS run since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Through 102, won't be a big coastal but will definitely be better for coastal Mid-Atlantic. My guess is this solution is about as good as we can get given the pattern. Not a big coastal but a decent hit for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My guess is this solution is about as good as we can get given the pattern. Not a big coastal but a decent hit for the mid atlantic. Wes, a solid WSW snow would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My guess is this solution is about as good as we can get given the pattern. Not a big coastal but a decent hit for the mid atlantic. Yeah, looks good for a moderate event, nothing huge. Which is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 126 some nice moisture still hanging back over far NE Va, So Md, De Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My guess is this solution is about as good as we can get given the pattern. Not a big coastal but a decent hit for the mid atlantic. If anything may be better for those inland as well since the coastal doesn't dominate the low level circulation and any coastal threat would have been compact. Coastal regions gets best snow threat but inland also gets a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wes, a solid WSW snow would be great. I think this run is close to the upper limit of what we can get. We still could get less if the 500h ends up being weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 major improvement also jamieober this is looking better for pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh....still 4 days out...things can get better tomorrow. This dont like like no blizzard of 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh....still 4 days out...things can get better tomorrow. This dont like like no blizzard of 83 4 days out the bliz of 83 didn't look like what the bliz of 83 ended up being believe me, I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh....still 4 days out...things can get better tomorrow. This dont like like no blizzard of 83 No. It doesn't "like like" no blizzard. I'll take 2-4 with arctic cold after. Still 4-5 days out. Can be a complete miss or mod hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Light precip sticks around another 30 hours though lol maybe thats how we get our big snow, a 60 hour event lol.....Probably wouldnt amount to much at all though after the initial energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 a little ot, but it is a model today's updated CFS surface temps: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif 850 temps even colder: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT850Mon.gif expect FEB forecasts to start getting colder from the usual outlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z ukie at 72 not far from the gfs at 500mb low is stronger though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z ukie at 72 not far from the gfs at 500mb low is stronger though pretty strong slp over TX thanks to the N vort hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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