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1/7/11 0z Model Run


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:lol: I hope (know) you don't think we are Wes, but it doesn't stop us

what makes you smarter, though, is that you don't even try!

I sometimes try when I think it's obvious. I do think the nam is better looking than the previous run but.....I'm not sure how much yet. Ji's post showing the 300 mb chart shows he learned some stuff.

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I'm not sure how bad it is. The 84 hr nam looks like it has the surface low stalling and waiting for the stronger western shortwave. If you look at 300 mb, there actually is a new shortwave over tx ahead of the main deal. It's also the nam at the end of its time range so its wiser to just wait. I don't think the changes will make things worse and they could make things better. I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out.

Yeah, I was definitely misreading. Upon farther review, it looks a lot better than 18z with that northwestern s/w

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I sometimes try when I think it's obvious. I do think the nam is better looking than the previous run but.....I'm not sure how much yet. Ji's post showing the 300 mb chart shows he learned some stuff.

That is an astute ovbservation. Since when has Ji posted anything other than 850 maps?

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that frontrunner southern wave has no chance and is not going to be the storm that gets us if one does. Its the energy out west that is important

True, it a wave goes off the east coast with the initial vort, then we'll prbably still have an out to sea solution. For the low to run up the coast, the second shortwave has to be the mover.

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that frontrunner southern wave has no chance and is not going to be the storm that gets us if one does. Its the energy out west that is important

i guess but it still creates the slp that is the east coast event, no? seems you want to keep that in as good of shape as possible and slow it if you want something good. if it shears out and flies east then you just have a nice secondary vort passing by without doing a lot.

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Since it's timely, does anyone want to explain when it's a good idea to look at 300 mb stuff?

I like looking at it to see what the jet is doing. if there is a strong jet on the back side of a trough, it's usually is going to continue digging. I guess I'm saying it's a good thing to look at regardless of the forecast projection you're dealing with.

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i guess but it still creates the slp that is the east coast event, no? seems you want to keep that in as good of shape as possible and slow it if you want something good. if it shears out and flies east then you just have a nice secondary vort passing by without doing a lot.

I think it depends on whether the surface low gets dragged east by the vort. If it shears so bad that there is little in the way of upper level divergence associated with it, then the surface low might stall and wait for the stronger shortwave. That's sort of the scenario we had when the euro was trying to get a storm towards us many runs ago and you asked why it was waiting around so long. That doesn't happen very often but occasional does.

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I sometimes try when I think it's obvious. I do think the nam is better looking than the previous run but.....I'm not sure how much yet. Ji's post showing the 300 mb chart shows he learned some stuff.

I know the DGEX isnt exactly the NAM extended but the 18z DGEX did have a good snow for the area

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I like looking at it to see what the jet is doing. if there is a strong jet on the back side of a trough, it's usually is going to continue digging.  I guess I'm saying it's a good thing to look at regardless of the forecast projection you're dealing with.

Not to mention the value in locating favorable entrance and exit regions of the jet streaks for added punch when you've got a system in play...

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I like looking at it to see what the jet is doing. if there is a strong jet on the back side of a trough, it's usually is going to continue digging. I guess I'm saying it's a good thing to look at regardless of the forecast projection you're dealing with.

Looking at the ind. members of the GFS, there's more than a couple that have some sort of low to the west of the APPS. Is that solution off the table, or is it in play? Your post above and your thoughts on the trough continuing to dig, and the look of the NAM at 84 would seem to be right in line with those GFS members. Just asking, trying to learn a little.

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I think it depends on whether the surface low gets dragged east by the vort. If it shears so bad that there is little in the way of upper level divergence associated with it, then the surface low might stall and wait for the stronger shortwave. That's sort of the scenario we had when the euro was trying to get a storm towards us many runs ago and you asked why it was waiting around so long. That doesn't happen very often but occasional does.

yea, plus just about all the models indicate that even once the SLP slides east it leaves behind a decent baroclinic zone along the gulf coast...I know some have said its dead but it doesn't look it to me, there seems to be enough residual moisture and the pressures are low enough that if the western energy digs enough and remains intact...something would not have a hard time developing.

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yea, plus just about all the models indicate that even once the SLP slides east it leaves behind a decent baroclinic zone along the gulf coast...I know some have said its dead but it doesn't look it to me, there seems to be enough residual moisture and the pressures are low enough that if the western energy digs enough and remains intact...something would not have a hard time developing.

The baro zone is there, but that first wave depletes the low level moisture field/theta-E field and the GOM can't moderate it fast enough in the low levels. Low level moisture is key for rapid baroclinic development.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

A slow solution wouldn't necessarily do well either for this reason.

Hour 84 NAM is depleting it as well with the first wave pushing E/crapping out.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84&parameter=THTE&level=925&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Looking at the ind. members of the GFS, there's more than a couple that have some sort of low to the west of the APPS. Is that solution off the table, or is it in play? Your post above and your thoughts on the trough continuing to dig, and the look of the NAM at 84 would seem to be right in line with those GFS members. Just asking, trying to learn a little.

I noticed that too and the 18Z gfs actually had a weak low form over ky though some of the other members seem to be stronger. With the second upper system being stronger and slower, they might have some legs though I doubt any low there would get too strong since the baroclinic zone is so far south.

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I noticed that too and the 18Z gfs actually had a weak low form over ky though some of the other members seem to be stronger. With the second upper system being stronger and slower, they might have some legs though I doubt any low there would get too strong since the baroclinic zone is so far south.

The 12z Euro ensemble mean showed a similar evolution. Unfortunately, I don't have much more than H5 spag charts to try to figure out what's going on.

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The baro zone is there, but that first wave depletes the low level moisture field/theta-E field and the GOM can't moderate it fast enough in the low levels. Low level moisture is key for rapid baroclinic development. A slow solution wouldn't necessarily do well either for this reason.
Do you have any ability to post what can go right with a storm? If so, let's hear it.
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The baro zone is there, but that first wave depletes the low level moisture field/theta-E field and the GOM can't moderate it fast enough in the low levels. Low level moisture is key for rapid baroclinic development.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

A slow solution wouldn't necessarily do well either for this reason.

Hour 84 NAM is depleting it as well with the first wave pushing E/crapping out.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

that is going to happen...even the runs that gave us a big snow did this...but then re-energized everything once the western energy catches up on the east coast. That may be wrong, and probably is a long shot but thats how it has to happen. The southern wave is way too far in front initially and is going to die out and slide east. That probably limits how big of a system this could be, but I do not think prevents a storm altogether.

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Yeh, I was more making the point that all he does is tell us what can go wrong. At least Wes tells us both good and bad. Baro's just ****ing depressing 99% of the time.

Haha, sorry. I will try to be more positive. Analysis isn't always roses though. Also, I was quite excited about the Christmas Miracle storm that pummeled the LI/NE when most people laughed at me...perhaps you forgot.

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Haha, sorry. I will try to be more positive. Analysis isn't always roses though. Also, I was quite excited about the Christmas Miracle storm that pummeled the LI/NE when most people laughed at me...perhaps you forgot.<

No. No. No. I appreciate. Just a little less so on the 0z run when I have to sleep shortly thereafter.

I feel like we get focused on another MECS and we stop looking for a nice 4-6" event. Is that not on the table here? Is it 8"+ or nada?

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