am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM has started. The inverted trough has set up right over the NYC Metro by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 pretty sick vort for nc.. whips up some decent quick hit snow 24 and 30 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_024m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 North Carolina is going to pick up a decent swath of snow tomorrow night. Was this even in any of the models last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 North Carolina is going to pick up a decent swath of snow tomorrow night. Was this even in any of the models last night? there's been hints here and there of something, i think this develops further back.. feel like more was coastal dev then shooting east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah, thats warning criteria down there. Hope they get it. Don't know what to make of the s.w out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Philly and South Jersey are going to get another hit from the lobe of vorticity rotating around the PV on Saturday. There is hardly any surface support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 There is hardly any difference aloft between 54 on this run and 60 at 18z. NAM is still way slower/more amplified with the southern stream than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 About time the NAM came onboard. It has been the fast outlier. Nice ridge building in the GOA for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 About time the NAM came onboard. It has been the fast outlier. Nice ridge building in the GOA for a change. I'm the last person to ask about severe wx, but the NAM looks like it has some decent shear down there Sunday afternoon. I guess it will come down to whether there is enough instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm the last person to ask about severe wx, but the NAM looks like it has some decent shear down there Sunday afternoon. I guess it will come down to whether there is enough instability. We're watching carefully. The pattern raises an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z. It looks better to my untrained eye...Looks about 3 hours slower with the southern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z. 72/78 hr pretty early for east coast still but i dont think it looks that good for us.. southern wave seems more sheared than 18z and the 2 northern death spirals arent giving much love at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z. The southern shortwave is definitely slower than 18z by about 100mi, but the 50/50 doesn't look like it is in a hurry to lift out, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z. Certainly the western wave is more amplified and everything looks a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Certainly the western wave is more amplified and everything looks a little slower. Eh, i just saw the 72 hour panel. Not real hopeful for a great outcome north of say NC/VA border. I'll hang in until 12z tomorrow when the data is better sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dont know...NAM at 84 looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 some promise here if the northern stream system can get moving and the southern moisture waits for it, we may have a shot that's a real mess over the Canadian maritime though with dive bombing s/w's coming into the vortex from the north! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Eh, i just saw the 72 hour panel. Not real hopeful for a great outcome north of say NC/VA border. I'll hang in until 12z tomorrow when the data is better sampled I'm not sure how bad it is. The 84 hr nam looks like it has the surface low stalling and waiting for the stronger western shortwave. If you look at 300 mb, there actually is a new shortwave over tx ahead of the main deal. It's also the nam at the end of its time range so its wiser to just wait. I don't think the changes will make things worse and they could make things better. I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Eh, i just saw the 72 hour panel. Not real hopeful for a great outcome north of say NC/VA border. I'll hang in until 12z tomorrow when the data is better sampled It is better than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this looks like the energy should catch up and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out. Thankfully we have the brainchild known as the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dont know...NAM at 84 looks good to me slower is probably better but it still looks like the s/w wants to eject out ahead of the northern stuff. i see wes notes some other diffs which might be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure how bad it is. The 84 hr nam looks like it has the surface low stalling and waiting for the stronger western shortwave. If you look at 300 mb, there actually is a new shortwave over tx ahead of the main deal. It's also the nam at the end of its time range so its wiser to just wait. I don't think the changes will make things worse and they could make things better. I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out. I hope (know) you don't think we are Wes, but it doesn't stop us what makes you smarter, though, is that you don't even try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Agree with Wes. the lead SW is slower. IF we that PAC NW can hall @SS we can be in BIDNESS> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this looks like the energy should catch up and phase It certainly doesn't look bad and the kink over tx is what I was noting. I think that is the reason the nam has the surface low waiting and is behind the 50o vort. Still it's the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 slower is probably better but it still looks like the s/w wants to eject out ahead of the northern stuff. i see wes notes some other diffs which might be positive. fwiw, the jb theory is just that...the southern system waits for the northern energy to bring it up towards us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hope (know) you don't think we are Wes, but it doesn't stop us what makes you smarter, though, is that you don't even try! the half hour+ between hr 84 of the nam and the gfs is always a little trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 72/78 hr pretty early for east coast still but i dont think it looks that good for us.. southern wave seems more sheared than 18z and the 2 northern death spirals arent giving much love at all. that frontrunner southern wave has no chance and is not going to be the storm that gets us if one does. Its the energy out west that is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw, the jb theory is just that...the southern system waits for the northern energy to bring it up towards us when we need timing i have to assume we're not going to get it. we played that game with dec 26 even if the evolution is a bit different. there's certainly a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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