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1/7/11 0z Model Run


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North Carolina is going to pick up a decent swath of snow tomorrow night. Was this even in any of the models last night?

there's been hints here and there of something, i think this develops further back.. feel like more was coastal dev then shooting east

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About time the NAM came onboard. It has been the fast outlier. Nice ridge building in the GOA for a change.

I'm the last person to ask about severe wx, but the NAM looks like it has some decent shear down there Sunday afternoon. I guess it will come down to whether there is enough instability.

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I'm the last person to ask about severe wx, but the NAM looks like it has some decent shear down there Sunday afternoon. I guess it will come down to whether there is enough instability.

We're watching carefully. ;) The pattern raises an eyebrow.

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NAM looks a little better vs 18z? Definitely more amplified than 12z.

72/78 hr pretty early for east coast still but i dont think it looks that good for us.. southern wave seems more sheared than 18z and the 2 northern death spirals arent giving much love at all.

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Eh, i just saw the 72 hour panel. Not real hopeful for a great outcome north of say NC/VA border. I'll hang in until 12z tomorrow when the data is better sampled

I'm not sure how bad it is. The 84 hr nam looks like it has the surface low stalling and waiting for the stronger western shortwave. If you look at 300 mb, there actually is a new shortwave over tx ahead of the main deal. It's also the nam at the end of its time range so its wiser to just wait. I don't think the changes will make things worse and they could make things better. I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out.

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i dont know...NAM at 84 looks good to me

slower is probably better but it still looks like the s/w wants to eject out ahead of the northern stuff. i see wes notes some other diffs which might be positive.

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I'm not sure how bad it is. The 84 hr nam looks like it has the surface low stalling and waiting for the stronger western shortwave. If you look at 300 mb, there actually is a new shortwave over tx ahead of the main deal. It's also the nam at the end of its time range so its wiser to just wait. I don't think the changes will make things worse and they could make things better. I'm not smart enough to give a shot at extrapolating it out.

:lol: I hope (know) you don't think we are Wes, but it doesn't stop us

what makes you smarter, though, is that you don't even try!

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slower is probably better but it still looks like the s/w wants to eject out ahead of the northern stuff. i see wes notes some other diffs which might be positive.

fwiw, the jb theory is just that...the southern system waits for the northern energy to bring it up towards us

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:lol: I hope (know) you don't think we are Wes, but it doesn't stop us

what makes you smarter, though, is that you don't even try!

the half hour+ between hr 84 of the nam and the gfs is always a little trying

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72/78 hr pretty early for east coast still but i dont think it looks that good for us.. southern wave seems more sheared than 18z and the 2 northern death spirals arent giving much love at all.

that frontrunner southern wave has no chance and is not going to be the storm that gets us if one does. Its the energy out west that is important

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fwiw, the jb theory is just that...the southern system waits for the northern energy to bring it up towards us

when we need timing i have to assume we're not going to get it. we played that game with dec 26 even if the evolution is a bit different. there's certainly a window.

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