Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes. the GGEm didnt' look so bad to me for NC. I didnt' add it up but there was decent precip in 3 different panels here. Its just that it nailed DC to NYC again, which pales us in comparison. If it nails the greedy (insert own verbage here) with the motherlode, then we usually get the usual 2-3" front end snow, with sleet/zr on back end, while the monster rides up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 With this event being less than 3 days away now, I wouldn't be surprised if Watches are issued for MS,AL, maybe parts of GA tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the models dont look too good any way you slice it for eastern NC I wouldn't necessarily say that, the gfs just gave us .5 qpf of snow and ip. Most of the models have been around that for our area. That's still a pretty good storm for this area. Of course 12" of snow would be great but I'm in NC and can't really complain about any winter weather I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z ECMWF has begun. At 6 hrs.. our trusty 500mb low is a bit stronger, FWIW, compared to 12z. (It's still out at sea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If i were in Western and Northern NC outside of the mountains I would be hoping for a Weaker High pressure and it farther North. A stronger high pressure may shunt this thing farther south and east of us. This could be why the models all day have been getting drier and drier. There will be winners and loser as with every storm. I would not be surprised at all if the radar was green for most of the day monday and us in NW NC having a raging virga storm. To me this looks like a SW NC , Cen S NC. , C SC. W SC , C GA W GA special . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z ECMWF has begun. At 6 hrs.. our trusty 500mb low is a bit stronger, FWIW, compared to 12z. (It's still out at sea) ...which was worth nothing. Near identical to 12z at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to James Spann, WSW could be issued for North/Central AL early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z ECMWF has begun. At 6 hrs.. our trusty 500mb low is a bit stronger, FWIW, compared to 12z. (It's still out at sea) and by 24 it has light snow over you (and me). Probably flurries if its cold enough. Theres a 2 contour closed low south of LAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Due to a reversal of the trends to colder today (0Z FRI NAM/GFS/GGEM all colder than 12Z THU runs) with stronger wedging of the surface high, slightly further south low track, and colder 850's, CHS-SAV and nearby areas are now very close again to the wintry precip. line. The lowest TD's are now all the way down to +5/+7 at CHS/SAV per the 0Z gfs on Sunday. The 0Z NAM/GFS/GGEM all appear to give CHS S at the start while the GFS appears to give SAV S at the beginning. Also, these models suggest a change to an IP/ZR mix afterward with stronger wedging in place before changing to plain rain. It will be interesting to see what the 0Z Euro shows as well as whether or not this colder trend will continue tomorrow at 6Z/12Z. If so, we could very well be looking at a very rare setup here along the SE coast in/near the CHS/SAV corridor come Sun night/Mon moring. One key is whether or not the sfc winds will have enough of a northerly component to avoid a trajectory over the warmer ocean. A wind that is, say, from a 40 degree trajectory, would largely do just that. However, winds that are, say, from a 50 degree trajectory would probably bring in some marine influence. I'm leaning toward the 40ish degree trajectory scenario as of now based largely on past similar setups that seem to favor the overland direction when there is strong wedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A little colder at 42... 500mb low a bit more cutoff and further sw. These are all slight differences since it's still in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 deep southwest trough at 48, and plenty cold in Dixie , no changes so far that i can see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How strong is the high pressure? A little colder at 42... 500mb low a bit more cutoff and further sw. These are all slight differences since it's still in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 James Spann has sure changed his tuned he has a detailed new discussion and map out now calling for 5-10 in the tenn valley areas and talks about Winter Storm Watches will be issued in Bama tomorrow morning. Spanns new forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Downstream ridge is a bit more evident by 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it has over .50" falling part of east Central TN and adjacent NC, so needless to say there's good snows again coming to the southern Apps...great season there so far. Ratios will probably ensure over 12" for some upslope places. At 54, -12 dips into northern SC. BRRRR. Moisture explosion over much of central and south TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 PV moving out faster... s/w already neutral tilt at 60 hrs. HP continues to trend stronger ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 60 hours, closed low south of Lubbock TEX, i dont' recall that. Cold air is south of Dallas, with hevy snows or atleast moderate snows even south of DFW. Pretty far south into TEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, way colder. North texas even Central TEX has major snow, streatching due east, not quite to Macon yet, but theeres a 1004 low south of New Orleans. Lot of QPF. This is 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SLP a bit stronger. popped a 1004 closed low just S of NO at 72 hrs. This further SW than 12z... maybe just slower overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run is much colder than other models, and abot as cold as its previous, maybe a smidge colder down south. Snow all of SC except nrothern at 78 , and all points west and southwest. Well south of Atlanta I think., even Jackson, Miss, and up to I- 40, but light there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Northern ala. and nw GA are bombed by 84. The surface low is south of Fl panhandle and the 5H vort is slightly further south, but very well discernable. Its plenty cold well south from Chs. to MAC to Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's cold. QPF still pretty light around here. SLP is dying.. basically a 1016mb wave by the time it hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by 90, still cold and about .25" precip in w. NC and SC so far. Sigh, at 96 it really lightens up for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Northern ala. and nw GA are bombed by 84. The surface low is south of Fl panhandle and the 5H vort is slightly further south, but very well discernable. Its plenty cold well south from Chs. to MAC to Jan. Would you say the heaviest precipitation would be along a line from Muscle Shoals, AL to Rome, GA and extending east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 HUGE ratios this run...Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by 90, still cold and about .25" precip in w. NC and SC so far. Sigh, at 96 it really lightens up for the Carolinas. Yep. Not looking too good here. The trend of the weakening short wave has put a number on our precip rates today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by 90, still cold and about .25" precip in w. NC and SC so far. Sigh, at 96 it really lightens up for the Carolinas. It's really light at 102 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's cold. QPF still pretty light around here. SLP is dying.. basically a 1016mb wave by the time it hits the Atlantic. yep. Its a 1016. The precip gets off to a good start in the lower miss. valley and gradually wanes eastward. Guess i was wrong. But then again most models are still too light with Gulf systems, so I don't think this is it exactly. By Tuesday am, its redeveloping off Charleston, so tht would fit the pattern to have precip approach here, die out, then reform east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lucky to break 2 tenths around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its restrenghtened to 1008 at HAT or so by 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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