FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bout a half foot in the BY with a nice glaze on top. Models are tools and the upcoming pattern will decide the weather. Trying to disect what is going to happen precisely from 3-4 days out is almost impossible for man and computer. Bottom line is the SE is in store for a great winter storm and the table is set for a good snowstorm for the Triad (MBY) and alot of other places. I like how Robert is approaching this and using pattern recoginition to use as a fundamental base, instead of waffling models. I beleive the picture will start to get real clear after the clipper gets out of the way tommorrow night and our buddy out in the SW starts getting a move on late Friday. This will tip off the alignment out on the playing field and hopefully the models (esp Nam/GFS) will get a clear picture to initialize with. I like where things stand at the moment, lot of potential to be hopeful about IMO! I agree. I think this may be the first real storm so widespread for our digital age, that we've grown accustomed to using all the old rules and being so nitpicky, Self included. The bottom line is that during the old days, early 2000's at the earliest, when we had this setup ( a strong 50/50 low, Plenty of preceding arctic air, strong blocking and stout South Texas trough) we'd be on cloud nine. Actually, we usually never get this rare setup, you probably have to go back to a 1990's storm, or even an 80's one, on all the models, unless their all wrong, so I see no reason to be expecting a much different result from those 80's storms. I think since we haven't had this pattern in practically a generation, its a hard pill to swallow, so we all go back to the usual , and that is picking the models apart, verbatim, when actually theres a huge pink elephant in the room, and that elephant is stomping on Little Rock, Birmingham Atlanta, Chattanooga Columbia and Charlotte by midnight Sunday night. And chances are will be stomping on eastern NC most of Monday and into early tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 All the talk about an ice storm. Here's a question for you. What is missing in this setup which we typically see in the southeast for most all major ice storms? Cue Jeopardy music...................................................................................................................................................... No strong parent high CENTERED in over the northeast. There may be alot of sleet with this storm and a fairly narrow zone of heavy zr. <BR>Not saying the gfs is right, just saying. Throw that in with the pattern and maybe it won't be quite so bad.<BR><BR>TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 96 and 102, the GFS cant decide much in the mid levels or surface so it splits the difference. Never seen an 850 low so broad. Its completely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM is back to the double-barrel low scenario that hits DC with a big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 96 and 102, the GFS cant decide much in the mid levels or surface so it splits the difference. Never seen an 850 low so broad. Its completely off. Indeed. The rockies energy is trending stronger. A lot more precip breaking out over Kansas at that time. We could begin to see more interaction with this on our preceding s/w here. GFS obviously having problems with that. the 850 height map confirms that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I want this sucker to either a: trend colder or b: trend warmer for the midlands of SC. We will not be able to withstand an ice storm that's shown right now. I and alot of others in my neck of the woods can sympathize with your angst. If its any consolation in Dec of 2002 we went through a worse ice storm than what the models have you progged to go through. Shut power down to 98-100% of my county (thats no hersey/joke). I was in the dark over 6+ days, and know others who went almost 12. However the thing people in the midlands and back over too Macon need to be aware of is We had seasonal chilly air during that following week. This is pretty serious sustained cold coming up for atleast a week after the storm. So I would be thinking of The 'What IF" scenerio (mainly heat source) . Not trying to sound alarms, but when you start getting into and beyond the .50 of freezing rain, Things go down hill fast. .75 and up you can count on going from scattered power outages, to widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It drops a meager 0.33 qpf in frosty land Steady decline on qpf all day, By morning should be down to a tenth maybe ? lol Both the 12z and the 18z had me right at .25" So the 00z is actually an improvement for my area as it is now up to .41". Still no where near last nights run, but better than the afternoon runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM is back to the double-barrel low scenario that hits DC with a big snow storm. Yep. the Rockies low is phasing in faster again. Looks to hit W NC big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I and alot of others in my neck of the woods can sympathize with your angst. If its any consolation in Dec of 2002 we went through a worse ice storm than what the models have you progged to go through. Shut power down to 98-100% of my county (thats no hersey/joke). I was in the dark over 6+ days, and know others who went almost 12. However the thing people in the midlands and back over too Macon need to be aware of is We had seasonal chilly air during that following week. This is pretty serious sustained cold coming up for atleast a week after the storm. So I would be thinking of The 'What IF" scenerio (mainly heat source) . Not trying to sound alarms, but when you start getting into and beyond the .50 of freezing rain, Things go down hill fast. .75 and up you can count on going from scattered power outages, to widespread. Oh I know, and what makes things worse is we have even less protection down here.. equipment wise. I loaded the CAE buf profile and I get a semi different scenario but it's still over half an inch of freezing rain.. just hoping the GFS is too warm and the Euro has the temps right.. because if we could get this as snow... it might rival the Feb 1973 record set here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 00z GGEM is a a mainly snow event in SC... even far South. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Hell, even to CHS, SAV, Beaufort.. I mean it changes over to mix/ice/whatever but... a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM spits on central/eastern NC than pounds DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Whats rather odd and confusing in my opnion is how it dries out the heavy precip and slows it down dramatically as it approaches SE Virginia.... With a favorable SLP track and cold arctic air i would expect a pretty good snow here but QPF looks meager and as always Boundary layer temps are an issue here near the coast. Hopefully the EURO will give me some hope later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM spits on central/eastern NC than pounds DC north. yeah it does.... basically splits the state of NC.... south of here gets hit good... north of here gets hit good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is obvious the models do not have this nailed yet - but interesting stuff nonetheless. The feature out west that I have mentioned is a menace to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 im an idiot where generators come. if a bad ice storm hits me, what will a generator do for me (im on a budget, cant afford a thousand dollar genorator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know some of my friends in E SC are interested: According to 12z GFS, Florence - 5" snow, followed up by 2/3" freezing rain. Temps 28-32. North Myrtle Beach - 1" rain after .14" freezing rain. Also, temps soar to 44 during the event. Charleston - 1.5" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep. the Rockies low is phasing in faster again. Looks to hit W NC big. QPF is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Foothills, Are you in for PBP for the Euro tonight? If not, its totally understandable...with all the work you put into this.However, it would be awesome if you were! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS says thundersleet for CAE: 72 01/10 00Z 34 8 78 6 0.00 0.00 541 562 -3.1 -15.4 1026.4 97 101FEW113 153BKN216 268BKN356 37 34 20.0 78 01/10 06Z 29 23 125 6 0.04 0.00 541 563 -3.6 -15.1 1027.8 99 -SN 077SCT113 128BKN226 237BKN388 34 29 6.1 84 01/10 12Z 29 29 57 15 0.38 0.00 544 564 0.6 -15.3 1026.2 100 PL 079SCT104 114OVC230 231BKN335 30 27 0.5 90 01/10 18Z 31 31 54 15 0.52 0.00 546 565 1.4 -17.1 1023.8 100 FZRN 035BKN077 114BKN201 231SCT293 32 29 0.0 96 01/11 00Z 32 31 45 16 0.36 0.03 549 566 5.0 -16.8 1021.7 100 -TSPL 012OVC075 115BKN156 CLR 32 31 0.0 102 01/11 06Z 32 32 35 12 0.10 0.00 551 567 4.5 -14.8 1019.4 98 -RA 000BKN098 CLR CLR 32 32 0.0 108 01/11 12Z 32 32 12 9 0.01 0.00 551 567 3.1 -14.7 1020.3 96 -RA 011BKN066 CLR 295FEW361 32 32 0.0 114 01/11 18Z 33 33 330 6 0.01 0.00 549 565 5.4 -14.1 1020.2 96 -RA 000BKN036 CLR 274BKN341 33 32 0.0 120 01/12 00Z 33 33 271 8 0.01 0.00 548 565 4.1 -14.1 1020.7 96 -RA 000BKN024 CLR CLR 34 33 0.5 126 01/12 06Z 31 30 265 8 0.00 0.00 547 563 1.0 -14.8 1020.0 81 000BKN019 CLR 300FEW322 33 31 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 QPF is very light. Yeah I just saw that. It further compounds my doubts. Big hit cancel. I know some think that the models are wrong about it, but this could be a viable solution given a weakening s/w. GGEM is phasing it in quicker again but only after it's moved past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 WOW, What do you mean by the Rockies low phasing faster again? QC replied that WNC looks for a big hit? What is the meaning behind this and why? Thanks as I am strictly wanting to learn the hows and why's,. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS says thundersleet for CAE: 72 01/10 00Z 34 8 78 6 0.00 0.00 541 562 -3.1 -15.4 1026.4 97 101FEW113 153BKN216 268BKN356 37 34 20.0 78 01/10 06Z 29 23 125 6 0.04 0.00 541 563 -3.6 -15.1 1027.8 99 -SN 077SCT113 128BKN226 237BKN388 34 29 6.1 84 01/10 12Z 29 29 57 15 0.38 0.00 544 564 0.6 -15.3 1026.2 100 PL 079SCT104 114OVC230 231BKN335 30 27 0.5 90 01/10 18Z 31 31 54 15 0.52 0.00 546 565 1.4 -17.1 1023.8 100 FZRN 035BKN077 114BKN201 231SCT293 32 29 0.0 96 01/11 00Z 32 31 45 16 0.36 0.03 549 566 5.0 -16.8 1021.7 100 -TSPL 012OVC075 115BKN156 CLR 32 31 0.0 102 01/11 06Z 32 32 35 12 0.10 0.00 551 567 4.5 -14.8 1019.4 98 -RA 000BKN098 CLR CLR 32 32 0.0 108 01/11 12Z 32 32 12 9 0.01 0.00 551 567 3.1 -14.7 1020.3 96 -RA 011BKN066 CLR 295FEW361 32 32 0.0 114 01/11 18Z 33 33 330 6 0.01 0.00 549 565 5.4 -14.1 1020.2 96 -RA 000BKN036 CLR 274BKN341 33 32 0.0 120 01/12 00Z 33 33 271 8 0.01 0.00 548 565 4.1 -14.1 1020.7 96 -RA 000BKN024 CLR CLR 34 33 0.5 126 01/12 06Z 31 30 265 8 0.00 0.00 547 563 1.0 -14.8 1020.0 81 000BKN019 CLR 300FEW322 33 31 0.6 LOL! I think Tony was just spotted heading toward Columbia, SC! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I just saw that. It further compounds my doubts. Big hit cancel. I know some think that the models are wrong about it, but this could be a viable solution given a weakening s/w. GGEM is phasing it in quicker again but only after it's moved past us. I aint worried unless the Euro leaves us...as of right now, it's all systems go..IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS says thundersleet for CAE: 72 01/10 00Z 34 8 78 6 0.00 0.00 541 562 -3.1 -15.4 1026.4 97 101FEW113 153BKN216 268BKN356 37 34 20.0 78 01/10 06Z 29 23 125 6 0.04 0.00 541 563 -3.6 -15.1 1027.8 99 -SN 077SCT113 128BKN226 237BKN388 34 29 6.1 84 01/10 12Z 29 29 57 15 0.38 0.00 544 564 0.6 -15.3 1026.2 100 PL 079SCT104 114OVC230 231BKN335 30 27 0.5 90 01/10 18Z 31 31 54 15 0.52 0.00 546 565 1.4 -17.1 1023.8 100 FZRN 035BKN077 114BKN201 231SCT293 32 29 0.0 96 01/11 00Z 32 31 45 16 0.36 0.03 549 566 5.0 -16.8 1021.7 100 -TSPL 012OVC075 115BKN156 CLR 32 31 0.0 102 01/11 06Z 32 32 35 12 0.10 0.00 551 567 4.5 -14.8 1019.4 98 -RA 000BKN098 CLR CLR 32 32 0.0 108 01/11 12Z 32 32 12 9 0.01 0.00 551 567 3.1 -14.7 1020.3 96 -RA 011BKN066 CLR 295FEW361 32 32 0.0 114 01/11 18Z 33 33 330 6 0.01 0.00 549 565 5.4 -14.1 1020.2 96 -RA 000BKN036 CLR 274BKN341 33 32 0.0 120 01/12 00Z 33 33 271 8 0.01 0.00 548 565 4.1 -14.1 1020.7 96 -RA 000BKN024 CLR CLR 34 33 0.5 126 01/12 06Z 31 30 265 8 0.00 0.00 547 563 1.0 -14.8 1020.0 81 000BKN019 CLR 300FEW322 33 31 0.6 sweet! anyone wanna change places with me? i'll trade my rare thundersleet for your snow or cold azz rain! (all in good fun) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL! I think Tony was just spotted heading toward Columbia, SC! LOL! What the Hell. Oh.. you know we can't just get rain.. or snow.. we have to get ice.. and now thunder sleet. This is such a wonderful thing.. I can see it now.. when I go out to at least hear the sleet fall.. I'll get hit by lightning and die in an icy mess. I guess my body may stay preserved for a bit then.. man.. such a mess for CAE if GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I and alot of others in my neck of the woods can sympathize with your angst. If its any consolation in Dec of 2002 we went through a worse ice storm than what the models have you progged to go through. Shut power down to 98-100% of my county (thats no hersey/joke). I was in the dark over 6+ days, and know others who went almost 12. However the thing people in the midlands and back over too Macon need to be aware of is We had seasonal chilly air during that following week. This is pretty serious sustained cold coming up for atleast a week after the storm. So I would be thinking of The 'What IF" scenerio (mainly heat source) . Not trying to sound alarms, but when you start getting into and beyond the .50 of freezing rain, Things go down hill fast. .75 and up you can count on going from scattered power outages, to widespread. yep ours was out for about 10 days i believe. crappiest time ever. went back to school before power came back. it wasnt warm after that storm either so we had limited heat with the gas logs. pretty much had to camp out in the family room with candles and sleeping bags. no hot water for a shower no tv. i think we bought a battery operated black and white when some of the stores finally opened back up. horrible horrible experience. i dont care how much you love winter weather 10 days without power will change your mind about freezing rain. the shear thickness of the ice was cool to see however. but night with pitch black the trees covered in over 1 inch of ice and the wind blowing will make you nervous when several of the tall pines are within striking distance of your house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Foothills, Are you in for PBP for the Euro tonight? If not, its totally understandable...with all the work you put into this.However, it would be awesome if you were! Yes. the GGEm didnt' look so bad to me for NC. I didnt' add it up but there was decent precip in 3 different panels here. Its just that it nailed DC to NYC again, which pales us in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 sweet! anyone wanna change places with me? i'll trade my rare thundersleet for your snow or cold azz rain! (all in good fun) thundersleet is fun. Having hard pellets of ice come down on you with claps of thunder and usually gusty winds. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow... just took a while to catch up and I was busy most of the day. It seems like there haven't been any major changes since the 00z runs last night, although the tendency is to have a slightly weaker southern stream 500mb low. The models are showing a very late phase with the rockies shortwave, not really in time for most folks in the Carolinas to benefit, but perhaps areas in Tennessee might get some 500mb backlash snow-showers. I need to take a little more time to digest this output along with whatever becomes of the 00z euro. I think its important to state that there is still a significant amount of uncertainty at 4 days out. This thing could trends towards a more minor event, or it could trend towards something more historic. Right now most of the model guidance is taking the middle road, with North Alabama, North Georgia, and North South Carolina benefiting the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just comparing bufkit with Meteostar, gfs gives me maybe a tenth in zrain, 2 in ip/z, 2 or 3 in snow, and a few more tenths in zrain/ ip/rain. All in all a great old fashioned storm of my youth. It will linger a while drop a lot of frozen, the nutballs will be off the roads early, and I'll get to sled my butt off on the big hill. I can live with this just fine. I love sleet but you are always on the edge of heavy zrain when you want heavy sleet. Some of my best sledding storms are this kind. zrain into sleet into sleet/snow and when you are out on the hill you get wet from the rain mixing in toward the end. I believe in the blocking and Foothills is right about the big picture pattern. For once I'm worried about ptypes when one isn't rain. I don't know if CandyMan in Columbus will enjoy a lot of zrain though. Hope it trends colder aloft for those down below me and Psalm. But right here the gfs doesn't scare me. And bless it's heart, out in funland it has at least two more potential thumpings....maybe I won't have to go to Columbia for my thunder sleet. I've seen it once and thunder snow once...very cool. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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