Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure why I even bother with the GFS at this range, the euro is so much better. Better knock on wood! ... or you'll see the Euro match it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU to CLT is between .75 and 1.00 qpf Probably .50-.75, but it's so light, takes 24 hours to accumulate that. It would be much better if we can get that in 12 hours. Plus it doesn't look like snow, it looks like snow/sleet/frz, miserable Tuesday if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Okay, CAE breakdown on 00Z GFS: Total QPF: 1.35 inches. .04 possibly snow. .36 likely changing from that snow to freezing rain .50 freezing rain .34 freezing rain possibly changing to rain (although it's only 0.1 above freezing) .11 rain (if the .1 and .2 temps are accurate) Either way, GFS destroys CAE with a pretty bad ice storm.. again. probably around .84 inches of freezing rain.. not good at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just posted my map, but this has ALL the makings of a CRIPPLING ICE storm for ALL of central GA *including CSG, MCN and AGS. That will stretch into AHN and possibly CAE. I agree. Once those low level temps are locked in below freezing on ne winds, its bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure why I even bother with the GFS at this range, the euro is so much better. Oh come on, we all know there are only slight differences in accuracy between the major global models. If you think something's wrong with the GFS's solution for one specific run (and I think you mentioned this above) that's one thing, but I wouldn't discount the entire model. The GFS isn't a total loss by any means, as Cheez mentioned a major hit for ATL and other areas of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I cant believe the difference between the Euro and GFS at the 850 level...it's like bizzaro world with the GFS so much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was looking more south and west , but I'm not positive just overall the look was'n't as juicy as the earlier run (12z). But for us, if you take away tomorrows event, we still get around .50", which is not bad at all , but looks a little light to me , and too light overall to our southwest. Not to mention the temps warm much quicker compared to the better resolution Euro. It's wetter here vs the 18z run. I don't see much difference in the soundings here vs the 18z run either. It still looks like at least 0.60 to 0.75 falls as snow then 0.10 to 0.25 as freezing rain. Earlier folks were mentioning ratios and it should be noted they should be pretty high to begin with for sure with temps falling to around 24 to 26 for virtually all of north ga/upstate. Just a side note, 950 temps are damn impressive..-5 to -6c. An extremely low temp for north ga for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Probably .50-.75, but it's so light, takes 24 hours to accumulate that. It would be much better if we can get that in 12 hours. Plus it doesn't look like snow, it looks like snow/sleet/frz, miserable Tuesday if that pans out. The maps I'm looking at has us around .75 but I'll verify it. I'm on my laptop and my other sites are on my other computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Better knock on wood! ... or you'll see the Euro match it! LOL LOL, i'm not that worried. The poor GFS has the low about 200 miles south of New Orleans at 72 hours, LOL. Its surface doesnt' begin to match its 5H. If its that far down, like DT says, I'm selling shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GSO - .50 POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. TEMPS 28-30 CLT .69 ABOUT .20 OF THAT IS SLEET TEMPS AROUND 29-31 RDU .54 ABOUT HALF IS SLEET. TEMPS AROUND 29-32 HKY .51 ALL SNOW TEMPS 25-29 CAE 1.36 MY GUESS 1/3 SNOW, SLEET, ZR tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Oh come on, we all know there are only slight differences in accuracy between the major global models. If you think something's wrong with the GFS's solution for one specific run (and I think you mentioned this above) that's one thing, but I wouldn't discount the entire model. The GFS isn't a total loss by any means, as Cheez mentioned a major hit for ATL and other areas of the SE. ATL will do a bit better than CAE snow wise, but they are still at .43 inches of possible freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I cant believe the difference between the Euro and GFS at the 850 level...it's like bizzaro world with the GFS so much warmer. Seems like the succeeding energy from the west is confusing the GFS on the placement of the mid level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It drops a meager 0.33 qpf in frosty land Steady decline on qpf all day, By morning should be down to a tenth maybe ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just posted my map, but this has ALL the makings of a CRIPPLING ICE storm for ALL of central GA *including CSG, MCN and AGS. That will stretch into AHN and possibly CAE. Nah..I don't see this being a crippling icestorm for athens. This is a major dump of snow followed by 0.25 or so freezing rain afterwards. Significant but not major. The euro is all snow. No doubt though central georgia gets hit hard though. The i-20 corridor especially looks like ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have a ratio question: How does a sounding affect ratios? That is, if I've got marginal 850 temps, but cold at the surface, does that result in a different ratio than if I have super cold 850s, but just below freezing at the surface? It's wetter here vs the 18z run. I don't see much difference in the soundings here vs the 18z run either. It still looks like at least 0.60 to 0.75 falls as snow then 0.10 to 0.25 as freezing rain. Earlier folks were mentioning ratios and it should be noted they should be pretty high to begin with for sure with temps falling to around 24 to 26 for virtually all of north ga/upstate. Just a side note, 950 temps are damn impressive..-5 to -6c. An extremely low temp for north ga for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Oh come on, we all know there are only slight differences in accuracy between the major global models. If you think something's wrong with the GFS's solution for one specific run (and I think you mentioned this above) that's one thing, but I wouldn't discount the entire model. The GFS isn't a total loss by any means, as Cheez mentioned a major hit for ATL and other areas of the SE. It's wetter here vs the 18z run. I don't see much difference in the soundings here vs the 18z run either. It still looks like at least 0.60 to 0.75 falls as snow then 0.10 to 0.25 as freezing rain. Earlier folks were mentioning ratios and it should be noted they should be pretty high to begin with for sure with temps falling to around 24 to 26 for virtually all of north ga/upstate. Just a side note, 950 temps are damn impressive..-5 to -6c. An extremely low temp for north ga for a winter storm. You're right, I just looked again and its not as bad as I thought. But probably not as bullish as the Euro , and certainly warmer later on. Its surface doesnt' match its 5H for several panels, but that happens a lot with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL, i'm not that worried. The poor GFS has the low about 200 miles south of New Orleans at 72 hours, LOL. Its surface doesnt' begin to match its 5H. If its that far down, like DT says, I'm selling shoes. Actually, despite my doubts of today, I think it's wrong too. The 850 low placement is totally wrong and should be much closer to the SLP center by the time it's hit the coast. The phase of the rockies energy is screwing it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Probably .50-.75, but it's so light, takes 24 hours to accumulate that. It would be much better if we can get that in 12 hours. Plus it doesn't look like snow, it looks like snow/sleet/frz, miserable Tuesday if that pans out. You are correct. The maps I was looking at was adding the qpf from the Friday system. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bout a half foot in the BY with a nice glaze on top. Models are tools and the upcoming pattern will decide the weather. Trying to disect what is going to happen precisely from 3-4 days out is almost impossible for man and computer. Bottom line is the SE is in store for a great winter storm and the table is set for a good snowstorm for the Triad (MBY) and alot of other places. I like how Robert is approaching this and using pattern recoginition to use as a fundamental base, instead of waffling models. I beleive the picture will start to get real clear after the clipper gets out of the way tommorrow night and our buddy out in the SW starts getting a move on late Friday. This will tip off the alignment out on the playing field and hopefully the models (esp Nam/GFS) will get a clear picture to initialize with. I like where things stand at the moment, lot of potential to be hopeful about IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yikes. So you're thinking Atlanta could bear the brunt of the Ice Storm ? CAE looks to possibly do that. You guys should get some snow down before ice to prevent any major road issues since it wont be ice on the direct surface of the roads right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 QCWx, Can you provide a sounding for me and Burger? Or at least a brief rundown on how much snow vs ip vs zr or rain? Just curious how the data is showing and you are ALWAYS my go to guy. Yes...I know...I need to get up to speed on that,. However, I deem you the "sounding expert" for analysis (good or bad) for me. Thanks and I know where you work, so I will bring brews as a gift for your extra time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 QCWx, Can you provide a sounding for me and Burger? Or at least a brief rundown on how much snow vs ip vs zr or rain? Just curious how the data is showing and you are ALWAYS my go to guy. Yes...I know...I need to get up to speed on that,. However, I deem you the "sounding expert" for analysis (good or bad) for me. Thanks and I know where you work, so I will bring brews as a gift for your extra time. I think it's probably 4-5" of snow for Charlotte before some sleet...but I still think the GFS is way too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bout a half foot in the BY with a nice glaze on top. Models are tools and the upcoming pattern will decide the weather. Trying to disect what is going to happen precisely from 3-4 days out is almost impossible for man and computer. Bottom line is the SE is in store for a great winter storm and the table is set for a good snowstorm for the Triad (MBY) and alot of other places. I like how Robert is approaching this and using pattern recoginition to use as a fundamental base, instead of waffling models. I beleive the picture will start to get real clear after the clipper gets out of the way tommorrow night and our buddy out in the SW starts getting a move on late Friday. This will tip off the alignment out on the playing field and hopefully the models (esp Nam/GFS) will get a clear picture to initialize with. I like where things stand at the moment, lot of potential to be hopeful about IMO! I want this sucker to either a: trend colder or b: trend warmer for the midlands of SC. We will not be able to withstand an ice storm that's shown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems like the succeeding energy from the west is confusing the GFS on the placement of the mid level center. This. That is what I've been noticing as well - but stated in less technical terms. They dance an ugly Tango. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE looks to possibly do that. You guys should get some snow down before ice to prevent any major road issues since it wont be ice on the direct surface of the roads right away. Yep. Your area down to Augusta and west to La Grange or so look to get really hammered by ice going by the general model consensus. ATL is far from being out of the woods in this regard though, slight warming aloft could mean a lot more falls as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another thing I've noticed...the GFS has consistently had the axis of heavier precip further south and east while the euro has the axis of the heavy precip further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z JMA Accumulated Precip @ hr 144: http://grib2.com/jma...RECIP_144HR.gif 12z JMA Winter Thicknesses @ hr 120: http://grib2.com/jma...TICAL_120HR.gif Wonderful.. .... this thing has doom for SC all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think it's probably 4-5" of snow for Charlotte before some sleet...but I still think the GFS is way too warm though. Thanks Bro. I can live with that. I am NOT being greedy by no stretch...it just bums me to have the pieces in place for a good dumping of snow and then the boundry layers throw a screw into the rear end.I guess I am on the WOW train for the foot of snow. I am an extreme, competitive person and want the extreme solution in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another thing I've noticed...the GFS has consistently had the axis of heavier precip further south and east while the euro has the axis of the heavy precip further west. Very true. I've noticed that as well. What is the GFS bias at this range and the Euro's as well? I can't remember them off the top of my head - but should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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