FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by 78 theres a convective bullseye in Mobile, but the precip is over most of Tn. now, and the 5H vort is still strong in northern Alabama , which is great for lift for the western Carolinas I think. Edit. the qpf through 84 isn't as impressive but is further north . the 850's also furthern north, just north of ATL at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 54 the western trough a bit slower than 18Z but faster than the NAM. The Northeast PV stronger/farther south. I am getting a tingly feeling.... seems more like every element is a few hours slower. The PV, southern wave and Rockies low all displaced west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like its nearly cutoff at 66 in eastern to SE Texas region. Theres going to be a lot of lift on the north shield and east northeast of the track. The 850 0 runs frm Macon to just north of BHM to Tupelo. Good 850 low in SE texas. By 72, theres a 1008 south of LA If I can stay on the north side of that 850 low, I might be in real good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the freezing line at the surface is south of Atlanta and south of columbia event at 90 hour. I hope you guys don't get a ZR storm, but it may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 you are welcome - i am one county below you! the gfs is showing you might even see something in rabun tomorrow night. you probably know this, but dawsonwx is a pro met in dahlonega, so he is fairly close to both of us and posts about this area a lot I've read dawsonwx's responses along with Foothills and read the blogs. Seeing something here tomorrow is what I've been reading, but it usually hits about 6 miles north of me....sometimes I'm in a little weather bubble, goes all around Rabun and misses me...LOL...There is one thing though...when ya'll are saying N. GA and Far N. GA...are ya'll including NW and NE GA in that too? It's probably been answered, and I don't wanna get in trouble for asking too many questions and not letting the mets and forecasters talk more and us "lesser" folks talk less. I know it's storm mode, but am just wondering some things. Just tell me to shut up and I certainly will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @81 the precip looks more robust then 18z...looks like this going to be a killer run for us in the CLT area. It's definitely slower than 18z. Don't know if the QPF maps will look anything significantly different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Trend is still there but verbatim this run went to "meh" kind of quick. 850's shoot up and the heavy precip never quite makes it to CLT and WNC...again though that's just verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's definitely slower than 18z. Don't know if the QPF maps will look anything significantly different though. Looks like we still might make it out with .5 but the 850's are bad this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is the feature out west causing issues w/ the model, GFS that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it also looks to put down maybe a dusting in parts of n ga. hopefully there will at least be some flurries Dang, I told you you were in the cat bird seat this year, and over and over you prove me right To all: I'm curious how long the ground takes to cool down. An earlier post spoke of heavy initial frozen precip, but is there a formula or study for how long it takes for the ground to freeze from say low 40's like it is now. I mean if it is in the low 30's or upper twentys Sat. night how far will that freeze the ground down. I've got the ground temps being put out by Experiment but I never watched them closely to see how quick they went down. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the freezing line at the surface is south of Atlanta and south of columbia event at 90 hour. I hope you guys don't get a ZR storm, but it may happen. Looks like quite an ice storm for the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks icy for Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 theres no doubt this run gets warmer aloft, and drier, except wetter in Tenn. Some of the features don't match up, like th 850 low placement, and WAA and precip not heavy where it should be, so with the convective bullseye, I'd toss it. the 5H looks ok though, just the other features look a little bogus. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is the feature out west causing issues w/ the model, GFS that is? I would think on this particular run it is definitely what is causing the 850s to be considerably higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like we still might make it out with .5 but the 850's are bad this run. Broad cut off 850 low, though weak, is centered over W TN at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Actually, the way it keeps spitting out precip, the QPF field looks very similar to the 12 GFS -- actually it's higher imby on the 0z run. theres no doubt this run gets warmer aloft, and drier, except wetter in Tenn. Some of the features don't match up, like th 850 low placement, and WAA and precip not heavy where it should be, so with the convective bullseye, I'd toss it. the 5H looks ok though, just the other features look a little bogus. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 2nd s/w starts phasing in w/ the 1st s/w around hr 93 and RDU appears to have more qpf but by the looks of the map it is a mixed bag of every kind of p-type. I'll have to check soundings to find out for sure. Still a little early to be concerned w/ p-types though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z GFS for CAE seems to start as a short burst of light snow, then goes to freezing rain from there on out.. then rain.. then whatever. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It might be a convective feed back problem if it is showing 1.5" to 2.0" in TX don't know for sure. Also I wonder if the nam and other models recognize sleet and it acts like a thunderstorm on models, by robbing moisture! theres no doubt this run gets warmer aloft, and drier, except wetter in Tenn. Some of the features don't match up, like th 850 low placement, and WAA and precip not heavy where it should be, so with the convective bullseye, I'd toss it. the 5H looks ok though, just the other features look a little bogus. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not too worried about a really bad ice storm here in ATL, the warm air at 850 does not nake it here until a large part of the precip is finished- this would be 5-6" of snow followed by a quarter inch of ice. The bad ice event might be in central GA from north of MCN to AGS. Also, remember the GFS has been the warmest model, the NAM and 12Z Euro were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 theres no doubt this run gets warmer aloft, and drier, except wetter in Tenn. Some of the features don't match up, like th 850 low placement, and WAA and precip not heavy where it should be, so with the convective bullseye, I'd toss it. the 5H looks ok though, just the other features look a little bogus. On to the euro. that's the second GFS run in a row having the 850 low that far west over W TN. the 12z run had it right over us at the same time (6z 1/11). Would this be attributed to the gaining influence of the Rockies low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU to CLT is between .75 and 1.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Actually, the way it keeps spitting out precip, the QPF field looks very similar to the 12 GFS -- actually it's higher imby on the 0z run. I was looking more south and west , but I'm not positive just overall the look was'n't as juicy as the earlier run (12z). But for us, if you take away tomorrows event, we still get around .50", which is not bad at all , but looks a little light to me , and too light overall to our southwest. Not to mention the temps warm much quicker compared to the better resolution Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS finally wetter, but still warm at 850. 0.75" line hits CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU to CLT is between .75 and 1.00 qpf You sure it isn't. 50 to. 75? RDU has that much by 120. CLT has more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 KEHO all snow through 96 hours, then the warm nose pokes in. I was looking more south and west , but I'm not positive just overall the look was'n't as juicy as the earlier run (12z). But for us, if you take away tomorrows event, we still get around .50", which is not bad at all , but looks a little light to me , and too light overall to our southwest. Not to mention the temps warm much quicker compared to the better resolution Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks a lot like the Accuweather forecast map. Sigh. no it doesnt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 QPF here seems to match the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just posted my map, but this has ALL the makings of a CRIPPLING ICE storm for ALL of central GA *including CSG, MCN and AGS. That will stretch into AHN and possibly CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure why I even bother with the GFS at this range, the euro is so much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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