Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it really rocks PDK on bufkit...of course it did at 18z too. Right, even though the NAM looks a tad worse (really just a slower solution it seems like) it's still a major winter storm. I suppose we could see some model waffling, but at this point with the models *fairly* close in their solutions we hopefully won't see the swings we say before the Xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Foothills. I've seen various models tackle the qpf in the TN Valley differently. Looks to me like the folks around Chattanooga may be sitting pretty again. Honestly, their snow drought has been epic IMO. As for Knoxville, I think they may eventually get in on some good snows. At this point, I think the northern TN Valley looks to be on the light side of qpf. Do you think the northern extent of the precip shield in TN looks underdone on the 0z NAM. I am more worried about warm nosing and thicknesses not being where they need to be for snow. Basically, the QPF is the least of my worries now. I am weenie out on the temp worries attm. Please throw a bone and explain why not to worry. Hopefully DP's will be there and saturation will do the trick for snow. I would hate to see a darn near perfect track, setup, etc by ruined by temps. I'll do my best to be more specific as I can in my next blog update and will try to cover the entire Southeast, so I'll answer these questions there. NAM Bufkit has snow ratios starting at 20:1 at GSP on Monday...if you hold those for a while, who gives a crap if you lose a little QPF? Yes, our dewpoints start low maybe single digits to low teens area. I can't remember how long its been to see a storm ride up 85 with temps and dewpoints like this. I feel like I'm back in Junior High. Your response was just fine Robert. Your line of reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Maybe I'm giving myself a challenge attempting to keep a skeptical, more pessimistic attitude. Youre just in search of that 12 inch snow ha. I don't blame you. But you know how living here has been, we get the big ones when we are least looking, and when we think we've got the setup, something happens. I'd much prefer things to look "ho hum" and average . With that lets just see if the Euro holds its basic ground as it held the best promise overall. Its going to be impossible to draw the cirlcles of where the 10" or 12" snow falls, and maybe no body gets that, its stil early (but I think from what I'm seeing, someone will) but even a nice, widespread 4 to 6" snow were to occur for many places, this would still be a nice storm. We've had way too many storms that were so localized, and I remember growing up with much broader systems, and colder air more widespread....this looks like one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hour 84 in CAE off the 0z NAM is 17:1 ratios showing 1.1 inches off 0.07qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Right, even though the NAM looks a tad worse (really just a slower solution it seems like) it's still a major winter storm. I suppose we could see some model waffling, but at this point with the models *fairly* close in their solutions we hopefully won't see the swings we say before the Xmas storm. It only drops 5" of snow in 2 hours at HSV: 110110/0600Z 78 10012KT 31.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/0700Z 79 13011KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 2.1|| 2.2 0.165|| 0.17 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/0800Z 80 10012KT 30.0F SNOW 18:1| 2.8|| 5.0 0.154|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/0900Z 81 10012KT 29.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.3|| 6.3 0.063|| 0.39 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1000Z 82 11013KT 29.5F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 7.0 0.043|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1100Z 83 10014KT 29.7F SNPL 7:1| 0.3|| 7.4 0.043|| 0.48 0.02|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 76| 24| 0 110110/1200Z 84 10014KT 30.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.028|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.02 0.03|| 0.03 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep, it's one of the exceptionally rare systems where cold air is not a problem at the surface for just about anyone within the sound of our voice...ummm letters. Trust me, I have been. It's been hard to concentrate on much today lol... knowing we have the rare opportunity to have a frozen ground, large amounts of snow, and a cold airmass behind it for days. It's been what, 20 plus years? Although last night i was asking this question to myself quite a bit as there was suddenly a lot of skepticism among some for some reason I couldn't understand. unless you live on the coast, not that I was expecting much anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I guess a football analogy works here... are you offensive or defensive minded? I have that sneaking suspicion that the low to mid level temps are going to be warmer than forecast and desire to see higher QPF numbers as an offset. That's definitely possible...I guess it all depends on the strength of the NE vortex. I kinda like where we're sitting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 People are seriously worried about temps with it 4 days away? While I wouldn't rule out the possibility of not having the perfect temp profile it seems a little insane to be worrying about that now especially with just one run. If Cheez, Dawson and Delta like GA for snow warm nose and all that jazz isn't even crossing my mind for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, please stop correcting him. You are lucky he gives analysis at all for GA and you are caught up in the semantics of geographical GA. Who cares? i dont know whats so hard about finding a city near where he is and then reading to see what people are saying about it. most of the people discussing the storm couldnt be more clear with locations, amounts, states, who gets what etc. Yep, it's one of the exceptionally rare systems where cold air is not a problem at the surface for just about anyone within the sound of our voice...ummm letters. Trust me, I have been. It's been hard to concentrate on much today lol... knowing we have the rare opportunity to have a frozen ground, large amounts of snow, and a cold airmass behind it for days. It's been what, 20 plus years? Although last night i was asking this question to myself quite a bit as there was suddenly a lot of skepticism among some for some reason I couldn't understand. yes, and as foothills says. this is the kind of storm i remember from the late 70s and 80s where there is a widespread snowfall in the se, just from this kind of set up. what is unusual this time (at least imo) are the temps, look to be pretty solidly below freezing, so nothing lost to cooling and trying to stick on a wet ground at 32 it was hard to concentrate, and i had to be off line for hours out of the office. tomorrow is the same so i will be in a tizzy by late tomorrow we i can get back online i am sort of perplexed by some of the concerns about temps this far out - so far its still looking really good I'll do my best to be more specific as I can in my next blog update and will try to cover the entire Southeast, so I'll answer these questions there. Yes, our dewpoints start low maybe single digits to low teens area. I can't remember how long its been to see a storm ride up 85 with temps and dewpoints like this. I feel like I'm back in Junior High. Youre just in search of that 12 inch snow ha. I don't blame you. But you know how living here has been, we get the big ones when we are least looking, and when we think we've got the setup, something happens. I'd much prefer things to look "ho hum" and average . With that lets just see if the Euro holds its basic ground as it held the best promise overall. Its going to be impossible to draw the cirlcles of where the 10" or 12" snow falls, and maybe no body gets that, its stil early (but I think from what I'm seeing, someone will) but even a nice, widespread 4 to 6" snow were to occur for many places, this would still be a nice storm. We've had way too many storms that were so localized, and I remember growing up with much broader systems, and colder air more widespread....this looks like one of those. dont worry - you are covering most areas very well! people just dont seem to be able to ready. as i said, i agree, this is the type of system i remember growing up here and have been waiting for since i returned a while back. granted, we'd all like 18" but a widespread, 4-6" snowfall in the se is a major storm in my book, not to mention most of us will be able to participate and not be left out in the cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dont know what post you are referring to, but i dont know i have ever seen you make a snippy or snide comment! sometimes it seems like i am in an excellent spot, and sometimes it doesnt (i guess we are never really satisfied, are we!) as much as a lot of us have whined, griped, moaned and complained over the last many years about the 'good old GOM lows' and the 'classic 80s se snowstorm' the 'classic track' etc. well it appears that it is back...these lows and tracks along the gulf can give a lot of us in the se snow (or at least winter precip), and they usually do if the temps are cold enough. this time it looks like temps in the 20s for a change, so this could be what a lot of us have been longing for. if its a slow mover and longer duration, we can still get a pile of snow, sleet (or ice) even if its not snowing an inch an hour. The most important time for a good burst of heavy snow is at the beginning. To max the accumulations the ground needs to cover quickly. That is often our problem in the south with marginal ground and air temps it can snow lightly all day with no accumulation at all. In my long experience, snow rate trumps every other criteria for beginning an accumulation. In the VA mountains I have seen it rain heavily all night, turn to heavy, heavy snow at 9am and not only cover the wet ground in a few minutes but turn large puddles to slush in less than an hour. The kicker was this occurred the last week in April when daytime accumulations are supposed to be very difficult to achieve at this latitude and after weeks of relatively warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 People are seriously worried about temps with it 4 days away? While I wouldn't rule out the possibility of not having the perfect temp profile it seems a little insane to be worrying about that now especially with just one run. If Cheez, Dawson and Delta like GA for snow warm nose and all that jazz isn't even crossing my mind for up here. I agree. Our temperatures are just fine for this event as it stands now. There's no threat of any drastic warming at the surface and/or aloft to where it ends up as all ice or a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's easy for me, mark, skip, jason and robert to feel good tonight...a 50 mile shift NE puts us into 1.00"+ QPF totals(according to the euro) Amen...the bermuda snow triangle (I still laugh at that in Burger's sig) HAS GOT TO COME CRASHING DOWN. I have my friggin sledgehammer at the ready. Its our turn in so many ways. Still hoping (as I always do) for everyone to come out of this happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The most important time for a good burst of heavy snow is at the beginning. To max the accumulations the ground needs to cover quickly. That is often our problem in the south with marginal ground and air temps it can snow lightly all day with no accumulation at all. In my long experience, snow rate trumps every other criteria for beginning an accumulation. In the VA mountains I have seen it rain heavily all night, turn to heavy, heavy snow at 9am and not only cover the wet ground in a few minutes but turn large puddles to slush in less than an hour. The kicker was this occurred the last week in April when daytime accumulations are supposed to be very difficult to achieve at this latitude and after weeks of relatively warm weather. yep. last march it started accumulating immediately and i got 8" while the next county it snowed just as hard all day, was 33 and no accumulation at all. the christmas storm was great here - however, it would have at least matched the march storm for accumulation if it hadnt fallen on a wet ground. quite a few hours of heavy snow were 'wasted' (although i am not complaining for a my first white christmas with 4"+ of snow) glad the gfs is running. i need to get to bed for an early morning, but figure i wont sleep anyway so i might as well check out the 0z run in this instance, its looking like it will all be frozen, and it will all stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A question or two, and forgive me if it's been answered, but I've been through both threads of this storm so far and can't seem to find it. What does Omega mean and how does having good Omega mean looking good for us in NE GA? Also, would higher ratios...a couple of pages back someone said 20:1...mean a wetter or more powdery snow? Thanks for the answers in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A question or two, and forgive me if it's been answered, but I've been through both threads of this storm so far and can't seem to find it. What does Omega mean and how does having good Omega mean looking good for us in NE GA? Also, would higher ratios...a couple of pages back someone said 20:1...mean a wetter or more powdery snow? Thanks for the answers in advance! Omega has to do with lift in the atmosphere...a higher ratio snow would be very, very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A question or two, and forgive me if it's been answered, but I've been through both threads of this storm so far and can't seem to find it. What does Omega mean and how does having good Omega mean looking good for us in NE GA? Also, would higher ratios...a couple of pages back someone said 20:1...mean a wetter or more powdery snow? Thanks for the answers in advance! The lighter and fluffier the snow, less moisture, the higher the ratio. Someone smarter than I can answer the omega question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A question or two, and forgive me if it's been answered, but I've been through both threads of this storm so far and can't seem to find it. What does Omega mean and how does having good Omega mean looking good for us in NE GA? Also, would higher ratios...a couple of pages back someone said 20:1...mean a wetter or more powdery snow? Thanks for the answers in advance! welcome to the board! i am jealous, you live in a great place for snow lol its the upward motion/lift in the storm (hence where the better rates and thus hopefully colder temps will be) higher ratios mean fluffier snow (and deeper accumulations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. Our temperatures are just fine for this event as it stands now. There's no threat of any drastic warming at the surface and/or aloft to where it ends up as all ice or a cold rain. Yep, there really haven't been any indications you guys will have temp issues. Down here we're on the fence between mostly snow and a true mixed bag, and while it seems most mets on the forum are leaning toward that colder solution things could easily change, so some concern about temps is justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 While we are waiting on 00 GFS to get to where we want it, I'll point out that it still has the clipper tomorrow pretty moist for you NC folks. Yes, I know there is another thread for that but I'm living dangerously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 While we are waiting on 00 GFS to get to where we want it, I'll point out that it still has the clipper tomorrow pretty moist for you NC folks. Yes, I know there is another thread for that but I'm living dangerously! it also looks to put down maybe a dusting in parts of n ga. hopefully there will at least be some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On the omega question what map do you use to identify it? Like 500mb or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the GFS has -12 in NC, down to extreme N. GA at 48 hours. the NAM also. Thats very cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, our dewpoints start low maybe single digits to low teens area. I can't remember how long its been to see a storm ride up 85 with temps and dewpoints like this. I feel like I'm back in Junior High. Youre just in search of that 12 inch snow ha. I don't blame you. But you know how living here has been, we get the big ones when we are least looking, and when we think we've got the setup, something happens. I'd much prefer things to look "ho hum" and average . With that lets just see if the Euro holds its basic ground as it held the best promise overall. Its going to be impossible to draw the cirlcles of where the 10" or 12" snow falls, and maybe no body gets that, its stil early (but I think from what I'm seeing, someone will) but even a nice, widespread 4 to 6" snow were to occur for many places, this would still be a nice storm. We've had way too many storms that were so localized, and I remember growing up with much broader systems, and colder air more widespread....this looks like one of those. I know that Jan '88 has been mentioned as an analog for this possible "event" and there does seem to be similarities in the widespread nature of the event certainly. Did that storm have as much consensus 3-4 days out as our upcoming system is currently? I guess what I'm wondering is if the nature of this system has less likelihood to bust (negatively). It seems like we actually have some wiggle room with this storm. Sorry if this is "off topic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 welcome to the board! i am jealous, you live in a great place for snow lol its the upward motion/lift in the storm (hence where the better rates and thus hopefully colder temps will be) higher ratios mean fluffier snow (and deeper accumulations) Thanks for all the answers and for the welcome. I'm learning a lot! Time to go back to lurking and learning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks for all the answers and for the welcome. I'm learning a lot! Time to go back to lurking and learning! you are welcome - i am one county below you! the gfs is showing you might even see something in rabun tomorrow night. you probably know this, but dawsonwx is a pro met in dahlonega, so he is fairly close to both of us and posts about this area a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @51 the GFS is faster then the 00z NAM and it's looking close to the 18z GFS at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 54, the GFS is slightly more positive tilted than its previous run west of Texas, but I think that may be good, meaning it becomes neutral and negative tilted later on, meaning a max precip explsion even further east. But already theres an 850 low in southern Texas and precip all the way to southenr OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 54 the western trough a bit slower than 18Z but faster than the NAM. The Northeast PV stronger/farther south. I am getting a tingly feeling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like its nearly cutoff at 66 in eastern to SE Texas region. Theres going to be a lot of lift on the north shield and east northeast of the track. The 850 0 runs frm Macon to just north of BHM to Tupelo. Good 850 low in SE texas. By 72, theres a 1008 south of LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 further west (slower) at 66 but trough axis tilt just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @81 the precip looks more robust then 18z...looks like this going to be a killer run for us in the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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