Pilotwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I feel the same way that we are out of it , but there is a trend that seems to take place every storm. Plus if we become the new North Pole afterwords, I rather it be dry have you ever tried to shovel 4 inches of solid ICE, that's what snow would become in a day or 2 afterwords. If the predictions of a displaced arctic high comes true, things would be on lock down for a week or two. I hope your right, But for some reason I don't think this will ! If it was just one model doing it then I would say it's out to lunch, But most all major models just don't bring here been a down hill slide for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still looks like a decent event here if you believe the snow maps...most of Cleveland and Gaston counties get close to half a foot of snow. never go by those maps. The qpf before the snow gives way to sleet or ZR is probably at most 2" here, and usually to be honest snow goes over to sleet and ZR a little earlier than I always think in those situations where its going to be a close call, and usually in these setups , the snow ends as ZR. We do keep getting light precip after the changeover, probably more from that than the front end actually, but after we've used to good lift on the first "half" of thise event, the next round would be zr becuase of not so good lift in the snow layer. I hope this run is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, an area of 1.25" south and west of ATL ? I wonder if that could be mostly snow ? If the ratios are good, I'm guessing that would be over a foot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 never go by those maps. The qpf before the snow gives way to sleet or ZR is probably at most 2" here, and usually to be honest snow goes over to sleet and ZR a little earlier than I always think in those situations where its going to be a close call, and usually in these setups , the snow ends as ZR. We do keep getting light precip after the changeover, probably more from that than the front end actually, but after we've used to good lift on the first "half" of thise event, the next round would be zr becuase of not so good lift in the snow layer. I hope this run is off. You know, I really do think this run is off considering how good the SREF run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 how did the NAM do in this range versus the GFS with the Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just saw the (what i assume is their) RPM from fox (yeah its ken cook but i looked at the loop of the run and barely listened to him...he came on during half time of the lsu game) and its showing a good 5-6" across most of n ga with some periods of heavy snow moving from around atl and basically following 85 into the upstate! how did the NAM do in this range versus the GFS with the Christmas storm? you'd think i could remember a few weeks ago and a white christmas storm lol. from what i recall, the storm was pretty much lost at this point out, and didnt start reappearing really until christmas eve Wow, an area of 1.25" south and west of ATL ? I wonder if that could be mostly snow ? If the ratios are good, I'm guessing that would be over a foot ? would depend how far south and how far west. south of atl there could be issues with IP or ZR which would cut down on the snow amounts. but put some on top of snow and its a mess! edited to add: just realized that by hour 84 on the nam, most of n ga is near 1" (at least thats what it looks like on twister) and a decent amount in sw and s nc through the upstate (near charlotte) appears to be a pretty sharp cut off though as you get into middle nc (that sucks, i want us ALL to get in on the action) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM is about the driest possible scenario for the Triangle most areas with less than a 0.1 of an inch. The ECMWF Ensemble, GFS, and GFS Ensemble are more impressive in the 0.5 to 0.75 range. Of course it isnt all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You know, I really do think this run is off considering how good the SREF run was. it very well could be. The SREF was further north, but again it too had the warmer air approaching us about hour 66 or if I recall, whereas places just to our west get all their precip or most, while its still cold enough to snow. Really strange, but I do remember a couple big snows in Atlanta that never made it here, one actually was rain here but don't remember the year. Not saying that will happen , but lets hope the GFS and ensembles are better looking here, or we'll end up with a little snow and a good bit of freezing drizzle Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18 UTC GFS is still putting down a decent snow event for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You know, I really do think this run is off considering how good the SREF run was. If you look at the sim reflectivity the QPF really looks strange. Clearly banding features shown by the NAM hr 66 through 78. Would be heavier snow and more QPF than the NAM is actaully showing if banding truly does develop. Not sure where the disconnect is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What the Post and Courier says about the snow: It comes down to Jacksonville or Tampa. If the center of the latest winter storm blows over Jacksonville, Fla. on Sunday night, Charleston gets rain early Monday. If the cold pushes it farther south over Tampa, we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html I don't see one single member of the SREF in that link that looks remotely close to the 00z NAM. Edit: Maybe one member looks similar, but all the rest are much farther north with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it very well could be. The SREF was further north, but again it too had the warmer air approaching us about hour 66 or if I recall, whereas places just to our west get all their precip or most, while its still cold enough to snow. Really strange, but I do remember a couple big snows in Atlanta that never made it here, one actually was rain here but don't remember the year. Not saying that will happen , but lets hope the GFS and ensembles are better looking here, or we'll end up with a little snow and a good bit of freezing drizzle Monday. There was a time in the 80's where they were calling for a foot here and it snowed all day in Atlanta and never did snow here, not a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 how did the NAM do in this range versus the GFS with the Christmas storm? Like everyone will tell you, it was a different setup, but the NAM never fully got it right, it was always slightly more south and east than the GFS was and the GFS ended up being right. But it could be right this time, the 18z GFS could have been a fluke run, we will see in about 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it very well could be. The SREF was further north, but again it too had the warmer air approaching us about hour 66 or if I recall, whereas places just to our west get all their precip or most, while its still cold enough to snow. Really strange, but I do remember a couple big snows in Atlanta that never made it here, one actually was rain here but don't remember the year. Not saying that will happen , but lets hope the GFS and ensembles are better looking here, or we'll end up with a little snow and a good bit of freezing drizzle Monday. 18z GFS ensembles look pretty good for us here in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What i'm trying to figure out is why everybody is getting so hooked up on the 84hr NAM? Ummm....it's the 84hr NAM guys. Looking at the thing past hr48 is pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I demand Cold Rain start the next thread. I think Dawson should continue on w/ the next thread also, this is Al/Ga/SC storm. In the 6 years I've been on these weather boards there have been many times where I got snow and those south of me did not. I think it's our turn to watch everyone south of us enjoy there storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you look at the sim reflectivity the QPF really looks strange. Clearly banding features shown by the NAM hr 66 through 78. Would be heavier snow and more QPF than the NAM is actaully showing if banding truly does develop. Not sure where the disconnect is coming from. Would there really be that kind of banding on a weakening low? I thought the deformation bands only happened in really strong, cranking low pressures that cause nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Would there really be that kind of banding on a weakening low? I thought the deformation bands only happened in really strong, cranking low pressures that cause nor'easters. Thats a good point it did look a little odd. But this is a complex setup with the elongated trough and weakening lead wave. A met would probably know more about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thats a good point it did look a little odd. But this is a complex setup with the elongated trough and weakening lead wave. A met would probably know more about this. Every situation is unique so I guess anything is possible. I doubt you'll find a Met on a Fri night. Most are out with their supermodel dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What i'm trying to figure out is why everybody is getting so hooked up on the 84hr NAM? Ummm....it's the 84hr NAM guys. Looking at the thing past hr48 is pretty much useless. People weren't saying that last night I've already expressed my thoughts about the 00z nam tonight, and why its likely off. It would be nice to see the gfs hold serve and not come in significant drier for NC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18 UTC GFS is still putting down a decent snow event for NC FWIW, that graphic does not appear to accurately reflect snowfall in NE TN - not even close. If the GFS extapolated snow graphics had been correct, NE TN would have 3-5 inches today. I have one. I just don't think the models have this right - yet. Let me stress that is a lower elevation observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Im still hoping for a southward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 New Thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I demand Cold Rain start the next thread. I appreciate the sentiment, but this is the GA, SC storm here. I think they should continue to on. They deserve a good hit. On another note, I'd really like to know how every model for the past 3 days starts the s/w out stronger but then it ends up weaker. That doesn't make sense to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 RPM Model for the north ala/south tenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 :snowman:could this system have blizzard criteria for north ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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