beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run just keeps on giving, though .... still snowing over most of NC at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Look at how far the s/w moved between 42 and 48 hours -- from then on, it was just flat (in more ways than one). I think the culprit may be back on hrs 24-30. There's a strong vort ahead of the trough (over C TX at 30hrs) that keeps the main s/w from wrapping up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well it's official this is going to be a nowcast situation like Brandon alluded to. Still not buying this is how it turns out. On to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Folks, in NC a system this size does not just disappear ! The models are not catching on in the later time frames. Every run or the past 2 days the moisture over TX has expanded and lots more QPF. Tomorrow afternoon runs will be the ones I'm waiting for to see if a north and west trend start! It may not trend north and west but that has been the trend so far this year. Oh but they do. Wouldn't be the first time I've seen it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run looked further south with everything, slightly. LIke Wow said, rotten for most of NC. Major snow for Atlanta and Birmingham and just north of those areas, but tapers quickly. Agreed. With the Christmas storm(though a different set-up), didn't the NAM do the same thing? What is its bias at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Folks, in NC a system this size does not just disappear ! The models are not catching on in the later time frames. Every run or the past 2 days the moisture over TX has expanded and lots more QPF. Tomorrow afternoon runs will be the ones I'm waiting for to see if a north and west trend start! It may not trend north and west but that has been the trend so far this year. I hope your right, But for some reason I don't think this will ! If it was just one model doing it then I would say it's out to lunch, But most all major models just don't bring here been a down hill slide for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good point. We need those rates to be heavy in the set up the NAM is painting. Glad it is Friday night...Few more model runs... The upper levels warm around midday MOnday in southern NC near the SC border so if we don't get our snow by then, (and it is precipitating lightly then), we won't get much snow , on this run. Definitely not a good run for NC, but very good for SC and points west/southwest, with a big snowfall in Atlanta and northern Ga to Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run just keeps on giving, though .... still snowing over most of NC at 78. for us, I'm afraid that would be freezing drizzle starting around that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 As I mentioned several runs ago, the feature to the northwest is a menace to the slp. Seems to me that it is acting almost like a kicker - forcing the SLP due east and not letting it turn the corner, even a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think FFC has a good handle on the forecast for GA snow amounts. Of course the models are showing potential for more than they are saying but their 5-7 amounts with locally more I think are good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i think the ags are gets 6-7 inches of snow the 3/4 inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think FFC has a good handle on the forecast for GA snow amounts. Of course the models are showing potential for more than they are saying but their 5-7 amounts with locally more I think are good for now. I think their forecast for 3-5" for the Atlanta area "could" be pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think FFC has a good handle on the forecast for GA snow amounts. Of course the models are showing potential for more than they are saying but their 5-7 amounts with locally more I think are good for now. Yeah, if the GFS/Euro/GGEM show 6"+ like the NAM for much of N GA I could see them bumping totals up a tad, maybe to 5-7 for the metro. 3-5 is a conservative yet justifiable call at this point for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z NAM is still a fantastic run for GA. But we get another shift with another run. 18z NAM shift north and juicier on QPF while 0z pulled the heaviest back south just a bit. But still plasters the entire metro area and all areas north of Newnan/Lagrange with 6+" inches or snow. The bulk of precip looks like snow. 30 hour event for n ga? looks like about hour 51 - 81! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, if the GFS/Euro/GGEM show 6"+ like the NAM for much of N GA I could see them bumping totals up a tad, maybe to 5-7 for the metro. 3-5 is a conservative yet justifiable call at this point for ATL. Yeah, best to be conservative until we get to about tomorrow night I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think their forecast for 3-5" for the Atlanta area "could" be pretty conservative. Based on the models as of now that would be conservative. If the models still show the exact same thing noon on Sunday you will probably see the amounts upped a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Based on the models as of now that would be conservative. If the models still show the exact same thing noon on Sunday you will probably see the amounts upped a bit. But of course the models could change a good bit between now and then so I understand where they are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still looks like a decent event here if you believe the snow maps...most of Cleveland and Gaston counties get close to half a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is that our 850 low the NAM takes into Illinois at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think FFC has a good handle on the forecast for GA snow amounts. Of course the models are showing potential for more than they are saying but their 5-7 amounts with locally more I think are good for now. i would certainly agree....and thats 48 hours out. in the se forecasting more than that this far out (or even closer lol) is 'asking' for a bust. it just doesnt happen that often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 for us, I'm afraid that would be freezing drizzle starting around that hour. VERY close for your area, and we know how that usually turns out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, if the GFS/Euro/GGEM show 6"+ like the NAM for much of N GA I could see them bumping totals up a tad, maybe to 5-7 for the metro. 3-5 is a conservative yet justifiable call at this point for ATL. Totally agree. We are looking very good on this...you maybe more so than me for amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run looked further south with everything, slightly. LIke Wow said, rotten for most of NC. Major snow for Atlanta and Birmingham and just north of those areas, but tapers quickly. Again I don't really see a physical reason for the nam to be less amplified than what we saw with the 18z run... the 500mb low that is producing all the cold air in the first place moves out faster, and the initial s/w starts out stronger in this run. We should have seen a more amplified solution, but for whatever reason its more dampened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I demand Cold Rain start the next thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 30 hour event for n ga? looks like about hour 51 - 81! Pretty amazing! NAM still gives you and me 6+" despite the shift south with the heaviest QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still looks like a decent event here if you believe the snow maps...most of Cleveland and Gaston counties get close to half a foot of snow. I was thinking the same thing. Looks like .25 to .50 inches in WNC, so with decent ratios, that could be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I demand Cold Rain start the next thread. I agree! My "mojo" lasted 50 pages....don't want to use it all up...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree! My "mojo" lasted 50 pages....don't want to use it all up...LOL Maybe I should start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Pretty amazing! NAM still gives you and me 6+" despite the shift south with the heaviest QPF. its very amazing, and i am waiting for the debbie downer shoe to drop lol. looking this good, this long, this far out is sort of scaring me. i would glady take 6"+ and let those atl-ath get more and i wont be complaining at all! fortunatelyi could care less to be in the bullseye as long as i am getting a good snowstorm. and so far it looks great!! (not that i wouldnt like to be in the bullseye) i just wanted to be sure i was seeing it correctly. thats a darn long time for frozen precip around these parts. thinking maybe i will try and turn in early tonight as i doubt i will be getting much sleep the closer we get, barring anything horrible happening. or stay up for the gfs? during the last couple (or even many) years, i dont think anything has lasted anywhere nearly as long as is showing on the models right now edited to add: the map strongwxnc posted below shows the next level of heavier qpf VERY close to both of our areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I was thinking the same thing. Looks like .25 to .50 inches in WNC, so with decent ratios, that could be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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