georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah the extent of this storm is pretty amazing, not often are nearly entire states put under WSWs. A bit of advice when it comes to graphics, make sure not to post really big images from some of the model sites (the image you posted is fine obviously). And welcome! Especially not states in the deep south !! I don't ever recall FFC putting their entire CWA under a WSW. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Advisories are issued by Tallahassee's office for areas in southwest Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like a la-nina to me... Hah, yea, take a look at that one behind the current one off baha. Looks like an extratropical cyclone about to hit hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z NAM's initialized FWIW. Let's see if we can keep the good trend going from here. Btw, has anyone ever heard of a weather model called the CIMSS? I was never aware of its existence. Came across it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsross Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah the extent of this storm is pretty amazing, not often are nearly entire states put under WSWs. A bit of advice when it comes to graphics, make sure not to post really big images from some of the model sites (the image you posted is fine obviously). And welcome! Thanks for the welcome! I have Photoshop, so hopefully I can keep their size manageable. Bring on the snow! Bah humbug for the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Once again... the 18z ensembles are wetter than the OP run.... its a pretty good bet that you can expect further trends northward. So,it would follow that the Winter Storm watches would also expand northward into Middle Tn right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the TWC this looks really reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow... 21z SREF is way more expansive and heavier with the precip shield!!! Everything about it looks better than the 15z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow... 21z SREF is way more expansive and heavier with the precip shield!!! Everything about it looks better than the 15z run.. How does it look for Columbia, SC? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How does it look for Columbia, SC? Thanks! Come on now, you know that isn't allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Im just the messenger, so dont shoot me. Before the model runs tonight, The GFS has another killer storm by weeks end next week. Big time HP and heavy 1.25+ qpf. Lights out ice/ with snow on top This isnt the first model or first run Ive noticed this. So more big time fun and games are on the way. I'm still strongly convinced MBY sees atleast a half foot plus Monday. If you do get some sleet on top of several inches of snow, let me tell you its the best sleding conditions you'll ever get. Had that last January. Plus it will secure your snowpack longer over the following days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How does it look for Columbia, SC? Thanks! A little bit of snow to start and then a crippling ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Once again... the 18z ensembles are wetter than the OP run.... its a pretty good bet that you can expect further trends northward. It looks like the 21z SREF may have inched north with the probability of .50" or greater. Overall with the .10" and all contours they trended a little north, esp. in Tennessee it lookslike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It looks like the 21z SREF may have inched north with the probability of .50" or greater. Overall with the .10" and all contours they trended a little north, esp. in Tennessee it lookslike. and now the 00z nam at 6 hours is already significantly stronger with the southern stream s/w... in fact its deeper than the 06z nam run was at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Once again... the 18z ensembles are wetter than the OP run.... its a pretty good bet that you can expect further trends northward. But will any extra moisture be before or after the changeover to ip/fz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z NAM's initialized FWIW. Let's see if we can keep the good trend going from here. Btw, has anyone ever heard of a weather model called the CIMSS? I was never aware of its existence. Came across it last night. There is a model called CRAS from CIMMS in U. Wisconsin. Is that it? It uses satellite data for most of its input. Output variables includes radiance, ie. the output looks just like an IR or WV satellite image. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/index.html CIMMS Regional Assimilation System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are these runs benefitting from on-land readings of the system yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And I'm assuming you're speaking of moisture and not temperature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can anyone smarter than me, explain why so much dry air is apparently going to move into Central/Eastern NC and limit QPF? Obviously, I'm familiar with dryslotting, but this seems completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 But will any extra moisture be before or after the changeover to ip/fz? Our soundings are all snow off the 18 z . The freezing snizzle/drizzle is more due to the dendrite growth area drying out at the tail end of the storm as it wanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are these runs benefitting from on-land readings of the system yet? Most likely since the center of the 500mb low is over Los Angeles. At 18 hours, the 500mb low is digging deeper than even the 06z nam run... this could be a huge hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a model called CRAS from CIMMS in U. Wisconsin. Is that it? It uses satellite data for most of its input. Output variables includes radiance, ie. the output looks just like an IR or WV satellite image. Yeah that's it. So that's all it is, huh? Alright thanks for the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can anyone smarter than me, explain why so much dry air is apparently going to move into Central/Eastern NC and limit QPF? Obviously, I'm familiar with dryslotting, but this seems completely different. Its just the arctic air in place plus the dying shortwave doesn't allow for the moisture to transfer like it would if the SW was not dying out.. go to www.twisterdata.com and click on your location and see the sounding data with a TON of dry air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Our soundings are all snow off the 18 z . The freezing snizzle/drizzle is more due to the dendrite growth area drying out at the tail end of the storm as it wanes. it also showed GSO getting all snow from this clipper and you see how that is turning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 30 hours, even better tilt than 18z at 36 -- almost neutral way back over west Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wonder if the extra jog north on precip on the 18z was the models focusing on the vort remaining in tact, the heaviest precip max seemed to follow along it. The nam is out to 36 hours. Has 1.75" in central Texas. Precip reaches the Red River barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Folks in TX might be dealing with major flooding at 36. It really puts the motherlode down there with the precipitation. Also seeing a neutral tilt at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Time sensitive, from the New England Jan. 10-12 storm thread. 21 User(s) are reading this topic 19 members, 2 guests, 0 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks to me like the vort is further south in Southeast Texas at 42, compared to other runs valid at this time. But the precip is there in Texas and Louisiana in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 48 hours the vort is on the Tx/La border mid way. The precip gradient is tight once into southern Arkansas, but increases rapidly in La, to 1.50" amounts and .75" widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Charleston NWS forecast was changed to snow/sleet mix on Sunday night, after 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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