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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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Just got back from London, guys! Saw a couple flurry events while I was there on the 3rd and the 6th, but otherwise it was some of the most miserable weather of my life with cold (30s), damp, and rainy weather all week.

And then I come back to a WWA for tonight for a little snow and a big snow threat looming for Monday-Tuesday!!! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I'll be in Raleigh, NC for this one since I have to go back to college on Monday (or Sunday). Looks like the track might be a little too far north for my liking from my initial look at the storm, but I have a lot of catching up to do.

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This is a hazards assessment. Where is the potential for the Historic icestorm shown in Alabama and Georgia and SC? Obviously they've updated and seen the new guidance, and still chose to include heavy snow for the 95 cities, but have inkling for whats about to transpire in the Deep South? Makes you wonder if they're really the "hemispheric" prediction center or just the Government version of Accuweather.

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This is a hazards assessment. Where is the potential for the Historic icestorm shown in Alabama and Georgia and SC? Obviously they've updated and seen the new guidance, and still chose to include heavy snow for the 95 cities, but have inkling for whats about to transpire in the Deep South? Makes you wonder if they're really the "hemispheric" prediction center or just the Government version of Accuweather.

Something is very wrong with that map. It is inconsistent with what all of the WFO's and HPC are forecasting. Either there are errors in the map or collaboration was non-existent.

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18Z GFS is a little faster with the onset of the precip in the RDU area, showing measurable precip in Raleigh by 18Z Mon. I'm cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue in the next few model cycles and that we will get some accumulating snow out of this deal before a change over to freezing rain sometime after 0Z Tue.

Poimen, thanks! That's the best news I've had all day...keeps the ) line out of much of the northern Sandhills long enough for a nice bed of snow to build. Light ice on top isn't pretty, but it's a heckuva lot bnicer than half and half.

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I am a newbie to the weather and have one question. What do you really think will happen in central South Carolina. Our family is worried about losing power due to the freezing rain on power lines.

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Looking at the soundings look like a snow sounding for RDU through 84 hours, a very narrow warm intrusion at 850 but the warmest it gets is 0.64 at 78 hours and 0.23C at hour 84 so i would have to think the strong rates would overcome that. Certainly freezing rain by hour 90.

Literally i would say several inches of snow with a good 0.1 to 0.2 freezing rain glaze at the end.

That would be 2 extremely picturesque snowstorms in a row! Any one think there will be issues with the snow sticking initially?

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Charlotte forecast from WSOCTV:

The next storm system is on track to arrive in the Charlotte area on Monday morning.

Ahrens said there are two important questions still surrounding next week’s storm: the strength of the storm scheduled to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and the amount of cold air it will bring to Charlotte.

At this point, the storm looks to weaken as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Carolina coast, Ahrens said. This will limit the amount of cold air available and as usual, the Charlotte area will be right on the fence with that cold air.

Ahrens said snow will start falling in Charlotte on Monday morning, but as the day goes on, it may mix with sleet and possibly rain. That will limit snow accumulations, with a total of 1 to 3 inches in the current forecast.

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Charlotte forecast from WSOCTV:

The next storm system is on track to arrive in the Charlotte area on Monday morning.

Ahrens said there are two important questions still surrounding next week’s storm: the strength of the storm scheduled to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and the amount of cold air it will bring to Charlotte.

At this point, the storm looks to weaken as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Carolina coast, Ahrens said. This will limit the amount of cold air available and as usual, the Charlotte area will be right on the fence with that cold air.

Ahrens said snow will start falling in Charlotte on Monday morning, but as the day goes on, it may mix with sleet and possibly rain. That will limit snow accumulations, with a total of 1 to 3 inches in the current forecast.

That's a possibility. Recent trends by the GFS/NAM indicate higher accumulations, though, before any sleet may mix in. Sfc temps look too cold for rain for most places around CLT.

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Hi everyone. Brand new poster here. I finally decided to come out of lurker mode. Thank you all for your insights about this storm. Love the graphics you post. I'm adding one myself, just to see if I'm getting the hang of this. Here are the current winter storm watches for the south. Some states have practically the entire state under the watch!

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Hi everyone. Brand new poster here. I finally decided to come out of lurker mode. Thank you all for your insights about this storm. Love the graphics you post. I'm adding one myself, just to see if I'm getting the hang of this. Here are the current winter storm watches for the south. Some states have practically the entire state under the watch!

Yeah the extent of this storm is pretty amazing, not often are nearly entire states put under WSWs. A bit of advice when it comes to graphics, make sure not to post really big images from some of the model sites (the image you posted is fine obviously). And welcome!

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