superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just got back from London, guys! Saw a couple flurry events while I was there on the 3rd and the 6th, but otherwise it was some of the most miserable weather of my life with cold (30s), damp, and rainy weather all week. And then I come back to a WWA for tonight for a little snow and a big snow threat looming for Monday-Tuesday!!! I'll be in Raleigh, NC for this one since I have to go back to college on Monday (or Sunday). Looks like the track might be a little too far north for my liking from my initial look at the storm, but I have a lot of catching up to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's interesting that the map shows ice in TN instead of areas much further south like Central AL and GA like I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep....ats/threats.php This is a hazards assessment. Where is the potential for the Historic icestorm shown in Alabama and Georgia and SC? Obviously they've updated and seen the new guidance, and still chose to include heavy snow for the 95 cities, but have inkling for whats about to transpire in the Deep South? Makes you wonder if they're really the "hemispheric" prediction center or just the Government version of Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (Sorry Widre..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a hazards assessment. Where is the potential for the Historic icestorm shown in Alabama and Georgia and SC? Obviously they've updated and seen the new guidance, and still chose to include heavy snow for the 95 cities, but have inkling for whats about to transpire in the Deep South? Makes you wonder if they're really the "hemispheric" prediction center or just the Government version of Accuweather. Something is very wrong with that map. It is inconsistent with what all of the WFO's and HPC are forecasting. Either there are errors in the map or collaboration was non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (Sorry Widre..) Nah, we live enough of a jog NW to be on the chunky blue line for the western bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah, we live enough of a jog NW to be on the chunky blue line for the western bubble. Yeah, I know. It was a stab at humor and I like ruffling dark cloud's feathers every once in a while. Conversely, Chapel Hill is a fantastic area. I covered that area with my job for about 3 years and fell in love with the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that map is valid starting on the 10th. most of the deep south stuff is on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From the Mobile office: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Road conditions for Monday according to the HPC. Green means roads are totally covered in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z GFS is a little faster with the onset of the precip in the RDU area, showing measurable precip in Raleigh by 18Z Mon. I'm cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue in the next few model cycles and that we will get some accumulating snow out of this deal before a change over to freezing rain sometime after 0Z Tue. Poimen, thanks! That's the best news I've had all day...keeps the ) line out of much of the northern Sandhills long enough for a nice bed of snow to build. Light ice on top isn't pretty, but it's a heckuva lot bnicer than half and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that map is valid starting on the 10th. most of the deep south stuff is on sunday. I think actually a lot of the deep south stuff is after midnight on Monday morning up until early Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Probability of ice greater than .1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am a newbie to the weather and have one question. What do you really think will happen in central South Carolina. Our family is worried about losing power due to the freezing rain on power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Probability of ice greater than .1 inch Ugh! Could you post the link to those ice maps...definitely one many of us would want to keep an eye on. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think actually a lot of the deep south stuff is after midnight on Monday morning up until early Monday afternoon. Yea here is the link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugh! Could you post the link to those ice maps...definitely one many of us would want to keep an eye on. Thanks! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_zr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that map is valid starting on the 10th. most of the deep south stuff is on sunday. you're right. I just found the ice graphic. I think actually a lot of the deep south stuff is after midnight on Monday morning up until early Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Didn't see this one posted. Good through 7pm Monday http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like a la-nina to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like a la-nina to me... Simply amazing Brandon! Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like a la-nina to me... Gotta love the pattern we've got going on. Nothing like a Nina event with Nino-ish characteristics in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looking at the soundings look like a snow sounding for RDU through 84 hours, a very narrow warm intrusion at 850 but the warmest it gets is 0.64 at 78 hours and 0.23C at hour 84 so i would have to think the strong rates would overcome that. Certainly freezing rain by hour 90. Literally i would say several inches of snow with a good 0.1 to 0.2 freezing rain glaze at the end. That would be 2 extremely picturesque snowstorms in a row! Any one think there will be issues with the snow sticking initially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Simply amazing Brandon! Thanks for posting that. OMG, is that another one in the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Didn't see this one posted. Good through 7pm Monday http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif this one is even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Charlotte forecast from WSOCTV: The next storm system is on track to arrive in the Charlotte area on Monday morning. Ahrens said there are two important questions still surrounding next week’s storm: the strength of the storm scheduled to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and the amount of cold air it will bring to Charlotte. At this point, the storm looks to weaken as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Carolina coast, Ahrens said. This will limit the amount of cold air available and as usual, the Charlotte area will be right on the fence with that cold air. Ahrens said snow will start falling in Charlotte on Monday morning, but as the day goes on, it may mix with sleet and possibly rain. That will limit snow accumulations, with a total of 1 to 3 inches in the current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Charlotte forecast from WSOCTV: The next storm system is on track to arrive in the Charlotte area on Monday morning. Ahrens said there are two important questions still surrounding next week’s storm: the strength of the storm scheduled to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and the amount of cold air it will bring to Charlotte. At this point, the storm looks to weaken as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Carolina coast, Ahrens said. This will limit the amount of cold air available and as usual, the Charlotte area will be right on the fence with that cold air. Ahrens said snow will start falling in Charlotte on Monday morning, but as the day goes on, it may mix with sleet and possibly rain. That will limit snow accumulations, with a total of 1 to 3 inches in the current forecast. That's a possibility. Recent trends by the GFS/NAM indicate higher accumulations, though, before any sleet may mix in. Sfc temps look too cold for rain for most places around CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsross Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hi everyone. Brand new poster here. I finally decided to come out of lurker mode. Thank you all for your insights about this storm. Love the graphics you post. I'm adding one myself, just to see if I'm getting the hang of this. Here are the current winter storm watches for the south. Some states have practically the entire state under the watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hi everyone. Brand new poster here. I finally decided to come out of lurker mode. Thank you all for your insights about this storm. Love the graphics you post. I'm adding one myself, just to see if I'm getting the hang of this. Here are the current winter storm watches for the south. Some states have practically the entire state under the watch! Yeah the extent of this storm is pretty amazing, not often are nearly entire states put under WSWs. A bit of advice when it comes to graphics, make sure not to post really big images from some of the model sites (the image you posted is fine obviously). And welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Once again... the 18z ensembles are wetter than the OP run.... its a pretty good bet that you can expect further trends northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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