Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guys, please tell me I'm reading this wrong for the CAE area off the 0z NAM... (im seeing ice..?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The nam has accum. approaching 2" ,and widespread 1.50" to 1.75" amounts, extremely impressed with the amoutn of moisture and that part I agree with. However, it failes to put enough moisture ahead of the WAA in western Tnn and n. Ala early on, and also has too much warm advection, compared to the Euro. If you adjust for errors that are likely with the nam, you end up with a whopping snowstorm in southern to central Arkansas, northern half of Miss, northern half of Ala and getting into Ga and southern third of Tenn or so, although I'm stil uncomfortable with the northern extent. Overall, too warm back west, IMO. And the problem is all of the models have been lacking with QPF on the north end. It's been having trouble pushing much precip into the growing HP system. Is it an error or could it really be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 84 hrs, it lost our 850 low, but developed one in the TX panhandle. Its the nam though , so the trends and broad brush is all you can gain from it. Good run, about like I expected and no surprises, except the precip is beeffing up more and more in Tx, Ark, Miss and Ala. If we're truly going to get 1.5" to 2" amounts that would be a wild storm, as I'm pretty confident of low level cold hanging tough with ne winds even down to I-20 areas., certainly north of 20. Dewpoints in eastern GA at 72 hours are less than 10 , same for most of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guys, please tell me I'm reading this wrong for the CAE area off the 0z NAM... (im seeing ice..?) All levels are below zero. 850mb height is close, but looks like a snow profile to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guys, please tell me I'm reading this wrong for the CAE area off the 0z NAM... (im seeing ice..?) I believe your vision is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 48 hour total ending at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 All I care about is that SW diving in from the PAC NW--seems a smidge faster. Anyone NE of CLT should only care about that. That big blob of QPF in TX don't really mean much--other then a reflection of the SW maybe hanging tough a little longer. I agree Huff....I'm really paying attention to that s/w also. I think that's the key player to the amount of precip for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And the problem is all of the models have been lacking with QPF on the north end. It's been having trouble pushing much precip into the growing HP system. Is it an error or could it really be true? just because a model doesn't have 1" qpf doesnt' mean it won't happen. I m not saying the 1.75" qpf is going to show up for us, but trust me the numbers WILL come up with time if the vort takes that path and other factors stay the same. Already, each run maintains that vort stronger and right for us, the dynamics and warm advection , which is an excllent precip maker by the way, are right on top of us. Its an error in the models..don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the cold in place, I don't know. We don't see this setup much, but a Gulf low almost always does us very well, if we got the cold air. I'm not worried at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, looking at 18z GFS at 90 hours vs. 0z NAM at 84 -- not much resemblance timing wise. GFS shows precip all but over for the western half of Georgia west. NAM shows it's just getting started in Ga. and heavy precip is all the way back into Miss. NAM = much slower. at 84 hrs, it lost our 850 low, but developed one in the TX panhandle. Its the nam though , so the trends and broad brush is all you can gain from it. Good run, about like I expected and no surprises, except the precip is beeffing up more and more in Tx, Ark, Miss and Ala. If we're truly going to get 1.5" to 2" amounts that would be a wild storm, as I'm pretty confident of low level cold hanging tough with ne winds even down to I-20 areas., certainly north of 20. Dewpoints in eastern GA at 72 hours are less than 10 , same for most of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to the 0 UTC NAM is Looks like North Carolina's getting light accumulations of snow as soon as tomorrow night =) Different system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to the 0 UTC NAM is Looks like North Carolina's getting light accumulations of snow as soon as tomorrow night =) Another thread for that, but I found this to be very intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to the 0 UTC NAM is Looks like North Carolina's getting light accumulations of snow as soon as tomorrow night =) That's from the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems to me the NAM always wants to slow down the systems but they usually end up a little bit faster. Gotta remember this is still pretty much 84 hours out for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree Huff....I'm really paying attention to that s/w also. I think that's the key player to the amount of precip for the RDU area. I remember in Allan's blog this was a key component. We want that to come down fast out of Alaska right? What exactly did the latest run show regarding that aspect? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree Huff....I'm really paying attention to that s/w also. I think that's the key player to the amount of precip for the RDU area. Yeah, and not to sound cruel-- I hope those who get phase one get plastered, but our hopes rest in that second sW. Definitly a tad slow on the lead, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As you can see here, the nam has the surface freezing line very far south. Keep in mind the contour you are seeing is the 30 degree line so the freezing line is a little further south still. Pretty much everyone north of columbus to macon to columbia is in the 20s monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks to me that the system to the northwest does not interact as much w/ the southern system. Lots of precip in Kansas that wasn't their earlier. BTW, tarheelwx, you are correct. It was about a 120 mile shift south - I need to know the width of my own state! And yes, as others have said, it was a slower run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guys, please tell me I'm reading this wrong for the CAE area off the 0z NAM... (im seeing ice..?) Nope. That's an all snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It might be a convective feed back problem if it is showing 1.5" to 2.0" don't know for sure. Also I wonder if the nam and other models recognize sleet and it acts like a thunderstorm on models, by robbing moisture! And the problem is all of the models have been lacking with QPF on the north end. It's been having trouble pushing much precip into the growing HP system. Is it an error or could it really be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nope. That's an all snow sounding. Okay thanks, I got 2 for snow and 1 for ice. I think I will go study the comet classes to read skew-t diagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, and not to sound cruel-- I hope those who get phase one get plastered, but our hopes rest in that second sW. Definitly a tad slow on the lead, which is good. Huff, I thought slower was bad for us...or do we want just the s/w to be a tad slower? Just trying to get a handle on this. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, and not to sound cruel-- I hope those who get phase one get plastered, but our hopes rest in that second sW. Definitly a tad slow on the lead, which is good. My thoughts exactly. If the gulf low slows, its kind of the same effect as the second sw speeding up - more moisture to deal with. It also looks like at 84 there's more "heat" and moisture moving north to interact with the second sw. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As you can see here, the nam has the surface freezing line very far south. Keep in mind the contour you are seeing is the 30 degree line so the freezing line is a little further south still. Pretty much everyone north of columbus to macon to columbia is in the 20s monday morning. you beat me to the punch lol - i was going to post the same maps from twister to hopefully calm some down a little. looks like a huge shield of precip over much of the se, and a lot of cold air well into n and central ga. the ingredients are there. now we just need this to be maintained for a lot more runs (fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just because a model doesn't have 1" qpf doesnt' mean it won't happen. I m not saying the 1.75" qpf is going to show up for us, but trust me the numbers WILL come up with time if the vort takes that path and other factors stay the same. Already, each run maintains that vort stronger and right for us, the dynamics and warm advection , which is an excllent precip maker by the way, are right on top of us. Its an error in the models..don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the cold in place, I don't know. We don't see this setup much, but a Gulf low almost always does us very well, if we got the cold air. I'm not worried at all. I know. Just trying to figure out the model interpretations. Obviously they're seeing something as all are doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I remember in Allan's blog this was a key component. We want that to come down fast out of Alaska right? What exactly did the latest run show regarding that aspect? Thanks. The nam only runs to 84 hrs so not sure at this time. The 1st s/w gets weaker as it moves east across the gulf. We need the 2nd s/w to come in and help re-energize the system to get more qpf as it crosses the Fl panhandle in to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, looking at 18z GFS at 90 hours vs. 0z NAM at 84 -- not much resemblance timing wise. GFS shows precip all but over for the western half of Georgia west. NAM shows it's just getting started in Ga. and heavy precip is all the way back into Miss. NAM = much slower. As you can see here, the nam has the surface freezing line very far south. Keep in mind the contour you are seeing is the 30 degree line so the freezing line is a little further south still. Pretty much everyone north of columbus to macon to columbia is in the 20s monday morning. yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The nam only runs to 84 hrs so not sure at this time. The 1st s/w gets weaker as it moves east across the gulf. We need the 2nd s/w to come in and help re-energize the system to get more qpf as it crosses the Fl panhandle in to the Atlantic. Then timing is indeed an issue, just not threading a needle as was necessary for the Dec 26 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. ok so is the warmer look of the NAM for N MS a bias or the start of a trend. Im hoping we are the starting point and it keeps on trucking east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Huff, I thought slower was bad for us...or do we want just the s/w to be a tad slower? Just trying to get a handle on this. Thanks. I think the key is we want the second s/w to catch up with the gulf low as soon as possible. If it's too late, the precip moves off shore before it really kicks back up for NC on north. Keep in mind that most models did not show this happening until later monday and monday night. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. thank you for this post! lol - i was thinking i was reading the models completely wrong or something. i know things can go wrong, but at this point it just looks fantastic. cold temps, check. precip, check. GOM open with moisture, check. if this continues by sunday i will be so giddy i wont be able to type! soundings for n and ne ga are great the entire time the moisture is overhead on the new nam (at least out to 84 lol, and its not over then!) a lot can go wrong, but with each successive run still keeping things on track in a general sense its looking better as we get closer (or should i say its looking more likely for a major se winter storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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