UNCCmetgrad Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know someone brought up before but with the moisture being pushed from the GOM do we have to worry about convection robbing us downstream? Thats something you should always keep in the back of your mind, with these southern events but will not know for sure until event is unfolding. Plus remember, that convection does not always rob moisture downstream and in some cases can even enhance it. The thing you want to look for is if organized convection races out ahead of the main storm system. Its in these cases that it can substantially decrease precip totals downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GSP really hit home the warm nose in the AFD. Also changed my grid to a sn/ip mix on Monday night. But left the Western end of the county all SN during the event By Monday night we're about over, save for freezing drizzle. Thats usually how our storms end, around 12 to 14 hours of steady good precip, then the drizzle. Here's some maps from Plymouth I made using 18z GFS. The damming shows up nicely, and we begin the Upstate and ne Ga to western piedmont and mtns of NC in the low and mid 20's and pretty much hold there through the heart of the storm. Also, the surface freezing line stays well south, thanks to a strong cold start and good northeast winds, well down into alabama. Its going to be an ugly ice storm in part of central Alabama to central GA I'm afraid. 12z Monday temps 18z Monday temps the 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can someone post latest soundings for cae. Growing more and more concerned about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can someone post latest soundings for cae. Growing more and more concerned about this. http://shrmc.ggy.uga.edu/soundings.php?city=kcae&submit=view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. Sounds about right given the qpf totals here but I didn't think 9 would be reached. I was thinking more along the lines of 7 or 8 inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 9.7" at GSP, 4.5" at Hky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. yeah and about .15 of fz. That wouldn't be good, especially if the snow is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. Wow I really hope the 00z NAM and GFS follow up with this setup. I know on the main forum a few mets said the setup didn't look right so they didn't trust the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. Is that sounding for the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow I really hope the 00z NAM and GFS follow up with this setup. I know on the main forum a few mets said the setup didn't look right so they didn't trust the 18z GFS. I bet it had something to do with not hitting the 95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is that sounding for the airport? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 E.Thomas going for 4-6 inches north of Charlotte. Pretty big call 3 days out in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Beat me to it. 6.3 for AVL. I will gladly take the middle of that mix! 10.2 for and (anderson).. \ 9.7" at GSP, 4.5" at Hky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Btw, this run is a devastating ice storm for the midlands of SC...all freezing rain at CAE except for 0.03 out of 1.35"'of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS CAE... 110110/0600Z 60 02009KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.4 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/0900Z 63 06010KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.106|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 0.11 0| 0|100 110110/1200Z 66 06014KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.071|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110110/1500Z 69 05012KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.453|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.48|| 0.66 0| 0|100 110110/1800Z 72 04013KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.224|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.24|| 0.90 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/2100Z 75 05015KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.307|| 1.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.32|| 1.22 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 78 05015KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.110|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.12|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 81 04013KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.059|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 84 04012KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.020|| 1.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0900Z 87 36009KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.012|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmmm. Not so sure about that. Checking ffc's sounding (and knowing you are south of there), you stand a good chance at a lot of sleet it would appear. Yeah, Bufkit gives me zrain and dz throughout, but I don't believe the gfs about that. The cad is what I'm counting on...right through here and into Ala. So...I hope you are right on sleet. I'm more interested in impact than height Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS CAE... 110110/0600Z 60 02009KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.4 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/0900Z 63 06010KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.106|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 0.11 0| 0|100 110110/1200Z 66 06014KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.071|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110110/1500Z 69 05012KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.453|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.48|| 0.66 0| 0|100 110110/1800Z 72 04013KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.224|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.24|| 0.90 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/2100Z 75 05015KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.307|| 1.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.32|| 1.22 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 78 05015KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.110|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.12|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 81 04013KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.059|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 84 04012KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.020|| 1.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0900Z 87 36009KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.012|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 I hope like heck that the 18z is off its rockers like it usually can be. That would suck BIG time and so devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks buckeye. Does that show roughly 4 inches of snow followed by an inch of ice? 18z GFS CAE... 110110/0600Z 60 02009KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.4 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/0900Z 63 06010KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.106|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 0.11 0| 0|100 110110/1200Z 66 06014KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.071|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110110/1500Z 69 05012KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.453|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.48|| 0.66 0| 0|100 110110/1800Z 72 04013KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.224|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.24|| 0.90 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/2100Z 75 05015KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.307|| 1.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.32|| 1.22 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 78 05015KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.110|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.12|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 81 04013KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.059|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 84 04012KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.020|| 1.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0900Z 87 36009KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.012|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I bet it had something to do with not hitting the 95 corridor? Yea you're probably right, one met in there was calling the other two out about it. This was his thought... That 18Z GFS was an odd run. It has a better looking ridge axis ahead of the western trough yet the shortwave sails through like the ridge isn't there and even weakens things a bit. Something isn't making sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 New map with amounts over in the MAP thread!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks buckeye. Does that show roughly 4 inches of snow followed by an inch of ice? No...a good dusting and 1.3 in ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bufkit shows KCLT going below zero at hour 162. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 110112/0900Z 111 33008KT 24.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110112/1200Z 114 34008KT 21.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110112/1500Z 117 33006KT 25.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110112/1800Z 120 31006KT 30.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/2100Z 123 29006KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/0000Z 126 31007KT 21.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/0300Z 129 33007KT 18.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/0600Z 132 33008KT 16.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110113/0900Z 135 32007KT 14.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/1200Z 138 32008KT 13.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/1500Z 141 32006KT 17.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110113/1800Z 144 31006KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110113/2100Z 147 30004KT 21.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/0000Z 150 31004KT 6.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/0300Z 153 35005KT 10.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/0600Z 156 36004KT 4.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110114/0900Z 159 36003KT 1.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/1200Z 162 VRB02KT -0.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/1500Z 165 VRB02KT 17.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110114/1800Z 168 VRB00KT 22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110114/2100Z 171 VRB01KT 20.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110115/0000Z 174 VRB01KT 0.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110115/0300Z 177 VRB02KT 2.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110115/0600Z 180 VRB00KT 2.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Look at how cold it is from horu 123 onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Look at how cold it is from horu 123 onward If 10 inches fell school would be out all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://shrmc.ggy.uga...cae&submit=view Sort of off-topic, but since it came up in this thread, I thought I'd ask. Can someone please explain why every time I try to click on the above link, it closes out ALL my windows and tabs in Firefox? It totally shuts down everything, and I'm left staring at my desktop display. It's not just tonight, but has happened several times in the past. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS bufkit puts down 9.2" at Kclt, fwiw. For my long/lat, the warmest 850 temps ever get is 0.9 deg at 78 hrs. The rest are all below zero, so that can still hold a snow profile, however I hope this doesn't pan out like last year's storm where the sleet came in and destroyed my totals and was left only with a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If 10 inches fell school would be out all week. Interesting... Looks like pretty isolated to CLT. GSO drops to 9.5 and RDU drops to 15. If anyone is wondering, BUFKIT drops 3.6" of snow on RDU, followed by 0.33" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep....ats/threats.php CPC really banking on a more northward track it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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