burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .91 final qpf total Wow...now hopefully the 00z suites will follow suite, with good ratios someone is going to be under a foot if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .91 final qpf total including todays precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How was your sounding? Looking at the maps I feared losing 1/4 or 1/3 to sleet, but only at the end did I even get to .1C in one of the levels. Was very pleasantly surprised. .91 final qpf total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not a big fan of these accumulations maps as everyone knows but...it's hard not to get ecstatic looking at that. The exact placement of heaviest snows remains to be seen but don't be shocked to see the final accumulation maps look somewhat similar. There is real potential for someone to get a foot...unless of course the nam/gfs are way too wet and the euro/ggem score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU is good until about 7am Tue then the zr machine kicks on. 'Course this run is faster it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, that should be not including tonight stuff. including todays precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU is good until about 7am Tue then the zr machine kicks on. 'Course this run is faster it seems I haven't checked soundings, but we might be getting sleet rather than ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not a big fan of these accumulations maps as everyone knows but...it's hard not to get ecstatic looking at that. The exact placement of heaviest snows remains to be seen but don't be shocked to see the final accumulation maps look somewhat similar. There is real potential for someone to get a foot...unless of course the nam/gfs are way too wet and the euro/ggem score a coup. Why do you think it shows more snow in NE GA as opposed to NW GA ? Will areas like Rome have sleet or freezing rain mix in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I really feel like the warm nose is being over played bit right now. The warm nose seems to be chasing the heaviest precip so that by far most of the precip is snow for north georgia. . Yes there will be some sleet and freezing rain but not before a lot of snow falls for a lot of north and east central georgia. Good point, 850s certainly show snow during the heaviest precip and warm after the heaviest moves east (the warm air is chasing the moisture this time lol). I'm confident that northern GA will get a good snow, I'm just trying to find the ways things could go wrong since everything is looking so good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Why do you think it shows more snow in NE GA as opposed to NW GA ? Will areas like Rome have sleet or freezing rain mix in ? Dude, use some common sense. I have said north georgia repeatedly and last time I checked northwest georgia is in north Ga And I reference east central georgia because the models show the warm nose there arriving later than areas further west...it comes in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not a big fan of these accumulations maps as everyone knows but...it's hard not to get ecstatic looking at that. The exact placement of heaviest snows remains to be seen but don't be shocked to see the final accumulation maps look somewhat similar. There is real potential for someone to get a foot...unless of course the nam/gfs are way too wet and the euro/ggem score a coup. Wholeheartedly agree with you. A lot potential with this system and all seems to be trending good. We'll see for the 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah the pattern has really been amazing, after the December storm I thought we were done. Looks like you might finally get a nice helping of sleet (along with a lot of snow and maybe ice!) Yeah, I'm still waiting to see how the precip develops, but my thinking now is snow/sleet. It is going to be too cold for a good old fashion sleet dump here, but I expect some ten year old down south of me is going to be introduced to the shock and amazement of thundersleet, and in 50 years he'll be insane for sleet like me The dynamics say snow/sleet to me now, and when AbZero said ffc was going with a watch all the way past Macon I knew I was probably safe from the z devil. The precip amounts will only rise on the models I think. I would expect to see some 1.5 or better amounts in some spots at least. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 including todays precip? Nope, event specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems like this is very confident considering what we know about gulf WAA. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I just wonder where all of this confidence comes from. I mean, what if this thing bombs out along the GOMEX....I'm not saying that this is probable but it seems like this is at least a reasonable possibility. the stronger the storm, the higher (or better chance) of waa coming in. glad to see the storm is still here after being out all day! although some of those snowfall maps look a bit over done (although i hope they are not). anyway, if the storm is stronger, it can bring in more moisture, but also the 850 can be pushed farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like RDU is good until about 7am Tue then the zr machine kicks on. 'Course this run is faster it seems I'm not sure if we're good that long...850's warm above 0 sometime after 0Z. Either way, it's nice to see the precip get in here during the mid day while it still cold enough to support snow. Let's hope that continues to be the case in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Most of the 85 region and west/nw is snow. I remember many storms like this that were snow right until the last hour , when it changed to sleet or freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I really feel like the warm nose is being over played bit right now. The warm nose seems to be chasing the heaviest precip so that by far most of the precip is snow for north georgia. . Yes there will be some sleet and freezing rain but not before a lot of snow falls for a lot of north and east central georgia. glad to see your 'i am happy post' lol IIRC (its been so long) that the heaviest precip is usually right along the snow/ice line. thats where the warmer and juicier air hits the colder air. so whoever i just north (or to the n of the Low) gets clobbered in snow and just below clobbered in ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good point, 850s certainly show snow during the heaviest precip and warm after the heaviest moves east (the warm air is chasing the moisture this time lol). I'm confident that northern GA will get a good snow, I'm just trying to find the ways things could go wrong since everything is looking so good right now Yeah I know what you mean. I keep looking for negatives myself and as I said earlier, it's really hard to find any. How often can we say that? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I would be much more excited about this event if it were not for the more miller b setup. It looks like to many p-type issues here to really see a major snowfall. With that said IMBY it looks like a couple of inches are possible before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was just referring to that map that shows more snow in places like Athens than in Rome. Sigh..that is simply based on it's overall QPT output. It's not to be taken literally, especially this far out. I said it could look somewhat similar..which means the final totals could look like that but be shifted west, north, east, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure if we're good that long...850's warm above 0 sometime after 0Z. Either way, it's nice to see the precip get in here during the mid day while it still cold enough to support snow. Let's hope that continues to be the case in future runs. Yeah, I realize those maps are in 6hr increments. Much better run though. Didn't expect that to happen. Thought the "drying" trend would continue. Rather deal with temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Most of the 85 region and west/nw is snow. I remember many storms like this that were snow right until the last hour , when it changed to sleet or freezing drizzle. Last years event in early January saw 5-6 inches of snow fall before tapering off to light freezing rain here as well. that freezing rain layer seemed to insulate the snow from melting when temps warmed up too and thicken the snow it seemed, allowing it to last a lot longer. I hate seeing snow melt away as the days go. very sad . Be nice if that would help it stick around longer with all the cold expected after the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, I'm still waiting to see how the precip develops, but my thinking now is snow/sleet. It is going to be too cold for a good old fashion sleet dump here, but I expect some ten year old down south of me is going to be introduced to the shock and amazement of thundersleet, and in 50 years he'll be insane for sleet like me The dynamics say snow/sleet to me now, and when AbZero said ffc was going with a watch all the way past Macon I knew I was probably safe from the z devil. The precip amounts will only rise on the models I think. I would expect to see some 1.5 or better amounts in some spots at least. T Hmmm. Not so sure about that. Checking ffc's sounding (and knowing you are south of there), you stand a good chance at a lot of sleet it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I"m really surprised that BMX is forecasting all snow, no ice whatsoever in East Central AL. Meanwhile, FFC is saying Freezing Rain and Sleet on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I"m really surprised that BMX is forecasting all snow, no ice whatsoever in East Central AL. Meanwhile, FFC is saying Freezing Rain and Sleet on Monday. agree, esp since the warm nose would come from the SW, and North Georgia is in a better area as far as "cold wedge" is concerned. I think that part of this is b/c FFC is being conservative in their approach to put it all out on the table. Based on the models and soundings, I think the majority of the precip that falls in North Georgia (ATL northward) except for the tail end will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GSP really hit home the warm nose in the AFD. Also changed my grid to a sn/ip mix on Monday night. But left the Western end of the county all SN during the event Most of the 85 region and west/nw is snow. I remember many storms like this that were snow right until the last hour , when it changed to sleet or freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the soundings look like a snow sounding for RDU through 84 hours, a very narrow warm intrusion at 850 but the warmest it gets is 0.64 at 78 hours and 0.23C at hour 84 so i would have to think the strong rates would overcome that. Certainly freezing rain by hour 90. Literally i would say several inches of snow with a good 0.1 to 0.2 freezing rain glaze at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like Monroe is in for a snow storm......and ending in IP,...... I should be more excited...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .91 final qpf total Finally creeping up to 1" QPF again. This is good to see. Now we need to see those 850 temps trend cooler. A couple of days ago, 850 temps were modeled to be well below 0 for the duration of the storm. I had a feeling this would happen as we got closer in. This will affect our ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems to me that the soundings for RDU are all snow until 7am teusday, which then we turn over to sleet due to the warm nose, though by then it seems to be winding down. Am I seeing this correctly ? 6z Teusday 12z Teusday All in all seems like a favorable run for RDU... At least to my EXTREMELY untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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