burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 72: We're flirting with the higher qpf totals here (around .50 at least). If this is all snow we win big on this run...I doubt the big cutoff it has on the west side of CLT for this run...CLT east is the big winner this run for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Please let that bullseye shift a little northwest, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 74 crew and 85 guys will like this. Gives .75" to 1.25", depending on where you are around the Upstate and lower piedmont and foothills of NC, and pounds northern third of GA. But, the 850's also warm at the end , so the mix would come in for the Upstate and ne GA and probably southern NC if this run is right on temps. The surface temps are going to be well down there however. Yea looks like 6 inches of snow and .25 of ice verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Central NC still screwed. By the time the precip gets here, the 850s warm up so we go over the sleet or ZR and probably eventually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You know up to this point, it really hasn't suck in this is going to happen but I'm getting more excited by the hour with what I see. I think you and all of northern GA are really in for something special. We haven't had a real overrunning with such cold air in forever now, the ratios are going to be good, and the lift is extremely impressive, and some convergence will cause enhanced bands around the immediate east side of the Apps in northeast GA and western SC I think. Great wind trajectory and dynamics aloft. I hope to get a little bit up here as well. If this is all snow we win big on this run...I doubt the big cutoff it has on the west side of CLT for this run...CLT east is the big winner this run for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If this is all snow we win big on this run...I doubt the big cutoff it has on the west side of CLT for this run...CLT east is the big winner this run for NC. it looks like the 850 0c line is just south of I-40 pretty warm run so we will see if clt could stay snow that would be nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @75 SV snow map says 4-8 for CLT and surrounding . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BMX is saying 4-7" including Birmingham and areas well south of I-20 in East AL BMX also saying no ice expected roughly along the I-20 corridor and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry, newbie here.... got a lil excited over the prospect of snow here in Centerville =/ It won't happen again.... All, please limit discussion in this thread to model analysis and storm discussion. Please keep the banter elsewhere. All mods are getting ill at deleting OT posts. K'thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow you are going to love hour 72...heavier qpf is in CLT...this is the trend we need. Good trends from the GFS and NAM this afternoon/evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A cutoff maybe to the west., But a nice trend wetter into WNC, IMO. Love the 48 total map lookout posted... If this is all snow we win big on this run...I doubt the big cutoff it has on the west side of CLT for this run...CLT east is the big winner this run for NC. That would be correct John. For some places in NC... Good trends from the GFS and NAM this afternoon/evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good trends from the GFS and NAM this afternoon/evening! SV map has you in 4-8 as well....we are working on your foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BMX is saying 4-7" including Birmingham and areas well south of I-20 in East AL. Pretty aggressive, but it meshes reasonably well with FFC's 3-5" for the I-20 corridor and more as you go north. The only lingering concerns are the warm nose and QPF amounts, and even then we're looking at 2-4" on the low end barring an epic model failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hi there. Could someone please send the sounding for KCAE (Columbia) please? Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 850 line's retreat is a little disconcerting -- this is like some sort of bazaar where we are bartering QPF for temps ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Central NC still screwed. By the time the precip gets here, the 850s warm up so we go over the sleet or ZR and probably eventually rain. lol actually the SV map has you in 4-8 as well...but you're right you will probably get slush followed by 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 YIKES -- the sounding looks MUCH better than the map --- all snow! 850 line's retreat is a little disconcerting -- this is like some sort of bazaar where we are bartering QPF for temps ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Per GFS 18Z soundings. KFQD stays SN until HR 96 but the surface is just above 0.0 What code does Cleveland use? 850 line's retreat is a little disconcerting -- this is like some sort of bazaar where we are bartering QPF for temps ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BMX is saying 4-7" including Birmingham and areas well south of I-20 in East AL BMX also saying no ice expected roughly along the I-20 corridor and northward. Seems like this is very confident considering what we know about gulf WAA. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I just wonder where all of this confidence comes from. I mean, what if this thing bombs out along the GOMEX....I'm not saying that this is probable but it seems like this is at least a reasonable possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does this GFS have better sampling from out west in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know someone brought up before but with the moisture being pushed from the GOM do we have to worry about convection robbing us downstream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Please let that bullseye shift a little northwest, thanks I believe you mean "to expand" over to you, right. Not move, lol. Pretty hard to believe this can happen with real low temps. Not the usual borderline Been back in the 70's since I actually "expected" a storm of this magnitude. Man, do I love blocking. We should all be grateful for the amazing blocking that showed up this year. Without it this doesn't happen. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree, I am somewhat concerned but it just seems to imagine the qpf diminish so fast from upstate SC by the time it gets to central NC and watch it move at a snails pace as shown on the 18z Nam. Not saying it can't die off that fast like modeled but usually the precip from the upstate translates this way mostly intact. We will see I guess. looks to me every time we get a qpf increase our temps go up as well. i would rather it be cold and cloudy rather than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I believe you mean "to expand" over to you, right. Not move, lol. Pretty hard to believe this can happen with real low temps. Not the usual borderline Been back in the 70's since I actually "expected" a storm of this magnitude. Man, do I love blocking. We should all be grateful for the amazing blocking that showed up this year. Without it this doesn't happen. T Yeah the pattern has really been amazing, after the December storm I thought we were done. Looks like you might finally get a nice helping of sleet (along with a lot of snow and maybe ice!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18Z GFS is a little faster with the onset of the precip in the RDU area, showing measurable precip in Raleigh by 18Z Mon. I'm cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue in the next few model cycles and that we will get some accumulating snow out of this deal before a change over to freezing rain sometime after 0Z Tue. 18Z Tue: 0Z Tue: 6Z Tue: 12Z Tue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 tgarren, I would worry about temps in your area. You need .qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .91 final qpf total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Per the WW snowfall map and hot spot of 10-15" shows up between Anderson and Greenwood SC.. Trend baby Trend Great wet run Jeremy. .91 final qpf total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty aggressive, but it meshes reasonably well with FFC's 3-5" for the I-20 corridor and more as you go north. The only lingering concerns are the warm nose and QPF amounts, and even then we're looking at 2-4" on the low end barring an epic model failure. I really feel like the warm nose is being over played bit right now. The warm nose seems to be chasing the heaviest precip so that by far most of the precip is snow for north georgia. . Yes there will be some sleet and freezing rain but not before a lot of snow falls for a lot of north and east central georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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