Snowacane Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love what the NAM was showing in the overall setup. I really feel like Matt and Brandon that this thing is going to come down to almost a nowcast situation. For the folks on the wrong side of that cutoff....boy what a heartbreaker. That's beginning to look like us here in the triangle, though this would not be bad as sounding are showing freezing rain, which I want no part of. In 05 went 9 days without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 based on what i have seen i am not that excited for our chances in the more central and eastern areas of nc. what the models seem to all agree on is there will be a storm, it will blow up in the gulf and then it will weaken as it moves north and west. its possible that it maeks it up this way but any model you look at its making its way up here as a weakening system, not one that is strengthening. that worries me for moisture as well as temps and the models show both these fears. maybe the next few runs will change but given what i see i just don't have high hopes for my area. i do hope it slams the guys in GA though. hope to be reading plenty of obs posts with you guys going crazy! Im pretty optimistic and strongly believe Our county will see 3-7 min out of this by Monday night. I am in the camp that models are underestimating qpf and the temp issue is a non factor. Would be nice to get the qpf reved up, and as I stated last night by Saturday 12z Sunday 0z suite youll see a suprising consensus rebounding toward more qpf as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What are the chances of wintry precip south of the FL line? Right now, I think NWS Tally is too far north with their freezing rain line, but the HPC is right on. Not even close to zr: http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_ktlh.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ATL 1.02 75% snow AHN 1.03 90% snow PDK 1.02 90% snow MCN 1.19 50/50 snow/zr...ouch BHM 1.06 90% snow Surface temps well below freezing. Occurs at night. Historic storm for the deep south verbatim. Wow. Just wow. Anyone see this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How similar is this storm to the January 88 storm for northern GA and upstate SC? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Jan1988.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/44831-january-1988-major-southsplains-snowstorm-20th-anniversary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Im pretty optimistic and strongly believe Our county will see 3-7 min out of this by Monday night. I am in the camp that models are underestimating qpf and the temp issue is a non factor. Would be nice to get the qpf reved up, and as I stated last night by Saturday 12z Sunday 0z suite youll see a suprising consensus rebounding toward more qpf as time goes on. I realize this is probably an anecdotal comment, but it’s not that moisture is being underdone by the models imo, but it’s that other low (you can see it on the NAM) that will be west of the apps and will affect not only temps, but .qpf. in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Im pretty optimistic and strongly believe Our county will see 3-7 min out of this by Monday night. I am in the camp that models are underestimating qpf and the temp issue is a non factor. Would be nice to get the qpf reved up, and as I stated last night by Saturday 12z Sunday 0z suite youll see a suprising consensus rebounding toward more qpf as time goes on. hopefully you are right. i used to have those feelings too but in this area they just never seem to pan out. i think we will be lucky to see much more than some drizzle and maybe a dusting. we shall see. not wanting to be pessimistic, i honked on this threat to my friends for the last week or so but its not trending the way i would like to see. models are modes and they are not the weather so i hope they (and myself) bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You can see from this radar loop http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_california_master.php and this cloud loop http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/conuscloudloop.php that the low is onshore or just about. It's weaker than the last low that came through there at Christmas FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS looks a tad stronger then the 12z with the vort energy out west. Out to 24 let's see where this one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm still on board although a bit more concerned than yesterday at this time. I agree, I am somewhat concerned but it just seems to imagine the qpf diminish so fast from upstate SC by the time it gets to central NC and watch it move at a snails pace as shown on the 18z Nam. Not saying it can't die off that fast like modeled but usually the precip from the upstate translates this way mostly intact. We will see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry to barge in during a model run, but how do you mets think the dry air we're dealing with will affect precip totals? I know last Feb we lost a lot of precip to dry air, it seems like this time around we'll be even drier. Quick thoughts to sooth this weenie's mind? Apart from that, this really looks like the "perfect storm" for N GA/AL/SC. We have solid model agreement less than 3 days out that is pointing toward a historic storm for the I-20 corridor and decent snow well north of it as well. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS looks a tad stronger then the 12z with the vort energy out west. Out to 24 let's see where this one goes. tilted more neutral at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @42 precip is further north in TX. Low looks stronger, but pretty close to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry to barge in during a model run, but how do you mets think the dry air we're dealing with will affect precip totals? I know last Feb we lost a lot of precip to dry air, it seems like this time around we'll be even drier. Quick thoughts to sooth this weenie's mind? Apart from that, this really looks like the "perfect storm" for N GA/AL/SC. We have solid model agreement less than 3 days out that is pointing toward a historic storm for the I-20 corridor and decent snow well north of it as well. Amazing! It sounds WAY too good to be true doesn't it ? I'm just not used to being in a situation where everyone is so confident we're going to get snow. This is new territory. I have to keep reminding myself that its 2 days away and things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 tilted more neutral at 30 This one looks to be setting up more along with the NAM...also look at that low really pop at 42, that is flooding in TX right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like the big vortex over the Great Lakes is a good bit east of its position on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry to barge in during a model run, but how do you mets think the dry air we're dealing with will affect precip totals? I know last Feb we lost a lot of precip to dry air, it seems like this time around we'll be even drier. Quick thoughts to sooth this weenie's mind? Apart from that, this really looks like the "perfect storm" for N GA/AL/SC. We have solid model agreement less than 3 days out that is pointing toward a historic storm for the I-20 corridor and decent snow well north of it as well. Amazing! Dry air/virga is already factored into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @48 further north with ZR in the far northern sections of LA breaking out. Also seems to be more negatively tilted @48 compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Again further north @51, this looks more like the NAM to me, we are getting in that frame though where we should really see some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thru 54 at least the omega at 700mb (vertical motion) is certainly further northwest in MS than it was at 12z, now who knows if that continues through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @57 good look to the GFS..moisture is further north into MS compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @66 it really looks like the NAM strip of more QPF further north into GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @69 lots of moisture on the west side of SC...GSP could get creamed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've noticed the models have an ever strenthening vort and strong southerly flow when its around eastern Tx to La/Ark border. If it trends stronger there may be a cutoff temporarily, any way the moisture is further north through 60 hours Even .75" aroudn Athens by then. With very cold aloft. Strong southeast flow at 850 aimed at northern GA....Major snowstorm there with tremendous lift under the 5H as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow you are going to love hour 72...heavier qpf is in CLT...this is the trend we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like the heavier QPF just barely avoids points just west of CLT...not a problem though as it's a good step forward. Wouldn't be surprised if CLT sees around .60 or .75 out of this run...temps are ok.....man at 81 it's staying this is a great run if we can avoid the ice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow you are going to love hour 72...heavier qpf is in CLT...this is the trend we need. Burger, I think you are golden man...............we all know that the precip will be even further north of the model runs even 12-24 hours before the event. Trend is both of our friends at this point. Thanks for the PBP man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 72: We're flirting with the higher qpf totals here (around .50 at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've noticed the models have an ever strenthening vort and strong southerly flow when its around eastern Tx to La/Ark border. If it trends stronger there may be a cutoff temporarily, any way the moisture is further north through 60 hours Even .75" aroudn Athens by then. With very cold aloft. Strong southeast flow at 850 aimed at northern GA....Major snowstorm there with tremendous lift under the 5H as well. You know up to this point, it really hasn't suck in this is going to happen but I'm getting more excited by the hour with what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 74 crew and 85 guys will like this. Gives .75" to 1.25", depending on where you are around the Upstate and lower piedmont and foothills of NC, and pounds northern third of GA. But, the 850's also warm at the end , so the mix would come in for the Upstate and ne GA and probably southern NC if this run is right on temps. The surface temps are going to be well down there however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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