strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18 NAM @06 has the SW stronger than the 12Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM rolling in. Crossing fingers that it shows the sw stronger and the northern precip shield more robust. Come on NAM...open the door for a trend back to a more qpf solution and colder temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We at FFC are hoisting a WS Watch for the entire CWA. 5-7" atlanta north metro and north. locally higher amounts. snow will change to sleet monday. Could see an ice storm from SW to EC GA (Albany to Dublin to south of Augusta). Awesome! Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SW same strength at @12 then the 12Z run. A hair west however.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I can't imagine now GSP isn't hoisting WS WATCH criteria at least. I know >3" have fallen in some areas because I have it IMBY right now. Anyone know why GSP has been so conservative this year? Did the criteria wildly change or something? Last year this would have had storm warnings up all over the place. Probably because the snow is accumulating in very few places. Downtown Sylva has none http://cam.thesylvaherald.com/view/index.shtml and neither does Cullowhee http://cowee.wcu.edu/uccam/index.html. I crossed over Cowee Mtn a few minutes ago and there was a dusting up there http://twitpic.com/3nvlpf. I can hear several wrecks being worked on Balsam and Soco on the scanner and the NCDOT crews are reporting most roads are clear. It's 40 degrees at my house on the Macon County side of Cowee Mountain and lots of pretty snow falling. It's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z UKMET http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SW continues to look stronger @15 compared to the 12Z run. Same placement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN150 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011...MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAYAFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAYMORNING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDTHE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILLDEVELOP NORTH OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE ARKLATEXREGION AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERNMISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TOOVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNINGAS THE STORM PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SLEET MAY MIX WITH THESNOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...BUT ANY SLEET WILLQUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING.ARZ049-058-MSZ007-008-010>013-015>017-020>024-081100-/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.110109T2100Z-110110T1200Z/LEE AR-PHILLIPS-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HELENA...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN150 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATESUNDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES.* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BEYOND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$BORGHOFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18 Hours strength the same, but more vorticity back in the SW portion of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Waiting for GSP's new AFD, but apparently they are going lighter than they were talking at 3 AM this morning. This forecast was updated at @ 2:48 PM Sunday Night...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Monday And Monday Night...Snow and sleet likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tuesday...A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of sleet. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Suggestion... if you are going to post afd's or other NWS discussions please do so only if you are going to add your thoughts or commentary. Just quoting these are adding unnecesary clutter in this thread and besides, most have already read local NWS AFD's, warnings or other advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @24 it looks a tad faster than the 12Z run. More over Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Probably because the snow is accumulating in very few places. Downtown Sylva has none http://cam.thesylvah...iew/index.shtml and neither does Cullowhee http://cowee.wcu.edu/uccam/index.html. I crossed over Cowee Mtn a few minutes ago and there was a dusting up there http://twitpic.com/3nvlpf. I can hear several wrecks being worked on Balsam and Soco on the scanner and the NCDOT crews are reporting most roads are clear. It's 40 degrees at my house on the Macon County side of Cowee Mountain and lots of pretty snow falling. It's crazy. Yea I know it is not accumulating in the valleys, but in the higher elevations it's GOT to be accumulating quite well around balsam and other areas in N Jackson with the rates that have been coming down. Just because the valleys don't warrant Winter Storm watch doesn't mean that areas over 3k feet don't, unless for some reason I just happen to be in some bizarreo snow magnet today. I measured 3" earlier, and the temps right now are 6 degrees below progged highs. I'm NOT at a particularly high elevation either. For the last two events we've had GSP has been VERY conservative as compared to earlier years, and I was just wondering why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Our s/w looks a little more robust at 30 and is a bit north of 12z position ... tilt about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly, I think you guys need to quit worrying about the the euro QPF. The trend here was that the s/w was stronger and further north to a degree, which is a good trend. Regardless of what the model is generating QPF wise, this should help to draw in more gulf moisture. Agree. Here's teh latest SREF. It looks to be a little north the last 2 runs I've seen. It also doesn't have any indication of a sudden decrease of qpf once in western SC/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GSP is also waiting to see what the models continue to say... Sure gets dicey the closer we get, here in the GSP area... gsp AFD .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 PM FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WINTER STORM IN SOME FORM OR FASHION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS QUIETLY INCREASING THAT WE WILL HAVE A PRECIP EVENT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT REMAIN QUITE SKETCHY...NOT SO MUCH IN TERMS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT. TO START OFF...THE NW FLOW SNOW ON THE TN BORDER SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE APROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL THINK THAT ANY PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK DOWNHILL SLIDE AS MOISTURE... ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPPER FORCING SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PIEDMONT. ONCE IT STARTS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE. WE ARE REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BECAUSE ALL MODEL PROFILES ARE SUB FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1200 UTC MONDAY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THE NAM WAS THOUGHT TO BE AN OUTLIER BECAUSE OF ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AND QPF ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE FCST WAS BASED MAINLY ON A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN WITH A STRONGER WARM NOSE SUCH THAT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-85 WOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...I AM SUSPICIOUS OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THE GFS IS CREATING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS LATE MONDAY IN A SORT OF MILLER-B FASHION...AND WONDER IF THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS A RESULT OF THAT. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY EATEN UP BY DYNAMIC COOLING...THAT WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...AND MORE TO THE SOUTH OF I-85. THE SFC TEMP FORECAST IS CRITICAL...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT. I WOULD HESITATE TO PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WARM NOSE STRENGTH. REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT THOUGHT WAS THE 09Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS WHICH REALLY DEMONSTRATED THE POSSIBLE MIXED BAG OF P-TYPES. THE QPF WAS TAKEN FROM HPC GUIDANCE WITH A GFS/SREF BLEND FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH GIVES US A CONSERVATIVE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTAL FOR THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS TO FULLY ENTERTAIN A WATCH. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY. FOR NOW...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND LET THE PUBLIC FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE, BMX, and TAE are following suit, maybe more. SNELSON @ FFC Thanks Steve!!!! Appreciate the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Starting to get a break out of precipitation in TX by the 36 hour. By 39, trough is taking on a neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 damn thing is in Mexico.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Also stronger than 12z at 36 hours -- and trying to get neutral. First time I"ve seen (can't tell on Euro) the s/w get stronger run to run since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Someone (Beanskip?) asked me for a history of 6"+ official S/IP at Atlanta (ENSO phase included): 3/24/1983 SEN 1/12-14/1982 (heaviest any one day 4" on 1/12) NP 1/23/1940 WEN 1/29-30/1936 NP 1/28/1904 WLN 2/11-12/1899 WLN 12/2/1896 SEN 2/15-16/1895 WLN 2/24-5/1894 MLN 1/18-19/1893 SLN 2/21/1889 SEN 12/3-6/1886 MLN 2/12-15/1885 (heaviest any one day 4" on 2/15) NP 12/29/1880 NP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @42 it looks about the same as 12z it might be a hair north though with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 bring it on home Skip! To my untrained eye, I would agree on the Neutral look even @39.. Also stronger than 12z at 36 hours -- and trying to get neutral. First time I"ve seen (can't tell on Euro) the s/w get stronger run to run since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @45 further north and cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ILM's forecast across much of the region is identical to the forecasting leading up to the '02 ice storm. It was a bit of ZR at night that was supposed to melt as temps rose to 34. By mid-morning forecasters were saying that it wouldn't pass 32 and we had an emergency on our hands. Sleet/ZR to rain with a high of 34 is what they're now forecasting for much of the area for Monday. That could get pretty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RAH will likely hold off on the watch until at least tomorrow. GSP, FFC, MEG, etc have a more serious threat for their CWAS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like the negative tilt is starting at 48...someone correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks! Only 14 times -- in 130 plus years! Someone (Beanskip?) asked me for a history of 6"+ official S/IP at Atlanta (ENSO phase included): 3/24/1983 SEN 1/12-14/1982 (heaviest any one day 4" on 1/12) NP 1/23/1940 WEN 1/29-30/1936 NP 1/28/1904 WLN 2/11-12/1899 WLN 12/2/1896 SEN 2/15-16/1895 WLN 2/24-5/1894 MLN 1/18-19/1893 SLN 2/21/1889 SEN 12/3-6/1886 MLN 2/12-15/1885 (heaviest any one day 4" on 2/15) NP 12/29/1880 NP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I concur. Streaking into LA at this time. @45 further north and cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks! Only 14 times -- in 130 plus years! Yeah 14 times in 130 years, and 10 of this times came in a 25 year period from 1880-1904 !!! So basically 4 times in the last 106 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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