packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hell, the JMA looks to be a good bit of snow all the way down to CAE also. A little bit colder/way more precip for sure. Not snow, most likely freezing rain, per the JMA. Below is at 72 and it only warms thru 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 let the S\W get onshore and you'll see the Euro show its cards again, just like the xmas weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not snow, most likely freezing rain, per the JMA. Below is at 72 and it only warms thru 96. I don't have tons of detailed stuff for the JMA, but I would assume we are around -5 850's before the system sends precip here.. so we would have a chance at a good bit of snow before they warmed up. I'm sure we switch over to sleet/FZRA somwhere in there after a little snow. Infact, that black 130 line would be 0c 850's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Were there any trends with the Euro temperatures/ boundary layer information in regards to precip-types? I know that the free maps are tough to decipher but someone may have access to a little more detail from the pay maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly, I think you guys need to quit worrying about the the euro QPF. The trend here was that the s/w was stronger and further north to a degree, which is a good trend. Regardless of what the model is generating QPF wise, this should help to draw in more gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly, I think you guys need to quit worrying about the the euro QPF. The trend here was that the s/w was stronger and further north to a degree, which is a good trend. Regardless of what the model is generating QPF wise, this should help to draw in more gulf moisture. +1 on this. We just need the setup and let nature do the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the models continue to dry this thing out in the coming 24hrs then it will become pretty believable imho. Right now we're in this interesting period where sampling is about to get a whole lot better I suspect. BTW, great write-up on your site today Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the models continue to dry this thing out in the coming 24hrs then it will become pretty believable imho. Right now we're in this interesting period where sampling is about to get a whole lot better I suspect. BTW, great write-up on your site today Phil. Thanks! The southern stream shortwave is getting properly sampled over the next several model cycles, although keep in mind that the models ingests a lot of data from aircraft soundings as well.. so its likely getting a pretty good sample currently with the ULL being near LAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Really don't get why my post got deleted. I see .58" qpf in CHS...any insight as to the precip type there this go around of the euro? Because you asked a pure IMBY post which is banned in storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FFC keeps lowering temps. They had me at 38 for Mon this morning and now they say 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 +1 on this. We just need the setup and let nature do the rest. I would normally agree, but I'm not sure I'm liking the setup too much in this case, at least for Central/Eastern NC. Sure the S/W trends stronger to start, but the end result remains the same: It gets crushed to oblivion by the time it would be able to produce around here. Seems to trend stronger initially, but peeters out about the same time each run. The second one is trending to come in too far north to give us any meaningful precip here. If that first one loses steam the way the consensus shows, we aint getting nothin' meaningful around here, I don't care what the setup is. Good luck to you guys farther west, though. I hope you get a good one. I am quickly losing faith in this one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Other than letting the s/w get completely on shore we also need to wait until tonights clipper gets out of the way. I think this feature is just as important as the s/w coming on shore because it is going to lay the ground work for what the s/w will be moving into over the next 48 hours. Once the clippers is gone the models should have a clear perspective of what upper air features will be stearing and battleing our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw, more than half of the gfs ensembles are wetter than the operational run, especially al/ga For those who don't know, the first panel is the operational run(gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So what we are seeing is a wetter solution to begin with and a dryer solution once we hit NC, GA, SC. Farther North and higher for areas that would have received nothing like middle Tenn. hits the jackpot in the earlier panels. But then moisture just disappears as time goes on. Rather quickly we lose our storm. Don't agree with it one bit! pressure to the north But @ the same time we have to account for the fact the High may be strong enough with dryer air to dry the storm up! But this is fast , the only other thing is could a strong NW flow be happening and hitting the mountains and drying everything out east of the mountains with down slope winds. I've been wondering about this as well. I've seen it before, but at the same time we frequently see WAA overrunning the cold dry air to enhance precip. Seems like we would have overrunning here since we have a low coming up from the gulf overriding cold dry air at the surface. What's the difference this time? Does it have to do with cold dry air at all levels that just eats up the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Discuss? FXUS02 KWBC 071854 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 153 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 14 2011 BLOCKY NOAM PATTERN TO CONTINUE BUT ANOMALY HEIGHT REARRANGEMENT OCCURRING AS THE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER NRN CENTRAL CANADA WEAKENS THIS PERIOD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THRU THE BERING SEA RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH. HEIGHTS BUILD ENOUGH HERE TO ALLOW UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST AND PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER CONDITIONS LOOK SHORT LIVED AS THE CURRENT AND PERSISTENT NEGATIVE AO LOOKS TO TANK TO VALUES SEEN IN MID DEC IN THE 10-14 DAY PERIOD. SEE CPC DISCUSSIONS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACTROSS TX SUN WILL INDUCE WRN GLFMEX CYCLOGENESIS WITH A REFORMING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENG COAST AND SEAWARD MID TO LATE PERIOD. NEXT BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND ROTATE THRU THE PLAINS KEEPING WESTERLIES SUPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH THIS DIFFUSE MID LEVEL LOW BETTER ORGANIZED BY CMC AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS EXITING OVER NEW ENG WATERS LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE SETTLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY HANDLING THE GLFMEX EAST COAST LOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATION OF THE ENTIRE NATION EARLY PERIOD THEN A STRONG THERMAL CLASH ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REFORMING FROM THE NORTHEAST GLFMEX TO THE GA/SC COAST MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA AND MUCH SC THERE IS A VERY POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAINLY ICING MONDAY WITH THIS SPREADING INTO NC MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW MORE LIKELY NWD THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. DETAILS TO BE SOLVED IN THE SHORT RANGE. SEE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE OUTLOOKS AND FUTURE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. PCPN SPREADING INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES RETURN MID WEEK WITH MDT TO HVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA AND INLAND TO THE SIERRA. SIGNIFICANT HIGHER ELEV SNOWS AGAIN IN THE ID/WY/UT ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. MID AND LOW LEVEL TEMP VALUES ARE ALSO IN THE RANGE FOR SNOW THREAT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF COASTAL WA. NEXT ARCTIC SURGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT/DAKOTAS/NB AND CO PLAINS FRI AND SAT. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw, more than half of the gfs ensembles are wetter than the operational run, especially al/ga For those who don't know, the first panel is the operational run(gfs) Yes, this really lends support to the theory that the Euro is too dry. We also forget the ratios- the GFS MOS has the snow falling at 25-27 degrees here so even if the liquid is "only" .5, that might yield 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw, more than half of the gfs ensembles are wetter than the operational run, especially al/ga For those who don't know, the first panel is the operational run(gfs) And none of them show the slug of QPF in middle TN that the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good point. Last go around the temp in the southern foothills of WNC was around 34-32 with water dripping down the gutters. My county still managed to get 5 and 5+ in some spots with a little over .4" Good find lookout... Yes, this really lends support to the theory that the Euro is too dry. We also forget the ratios- the GFS MOS has the snow falling at 25-27 degrees here so even if the liquid is "only" .5, that might yield 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From National Weather Service: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So let me get this straight. Camp Springs, which has all the cool weather toys and serious mets, believes the moisture will go up into eastern Va, Delmarva even??, while everything we are seeing (model-to-model runs, granted) show this thing dampening out? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From National Weather Service: That was made yesterday. A new one will come out in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We at FFC are hoisting a WS Watch for the entire CWA. 5-7" atlanta north metro and north. locally higher amounts. snow will change to sleet monday. Could see an ice storm from SW to EC GA (Albany to Dublin to south of Augusta). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We at FFC are hoisting a WS Watch for the entire CWA. 5-7" atlanta north metro and north. locally higher amounts. snow will change to sleet monday. Could see an ice storm from SW to EC GA (Albany to Dublin to south of Augusta). Are you with the FCC office or did you borrow this from somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE, BMX, and TAE are following suit, maybe more. SNELSON @ FFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I can't imagine now GSP isn't hoisting WS WATCH criteria at least. I know >3" have fallen in some areas because I have it IMBY right now. Anyone know why GSP has been so conservative this year? Did the criteria wildly change or something? Last year this would have had storm warnings up all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are you with the FCC office or did you borrow this from somewhere? Yes, I'm the SOO here. Have been absent from here for a while, but lurking during Xmas and our current winter storm. Keep the fun discussion rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/briefing/winter_wx.php Winter Storm Watch - Conditions are favorable for either heavy snow, heavy sleet, damaging ice accumulations, or a combination of these factors, to develop within the next 48 hours. For the GSP CWFA, heavy snow is defined as 3 inches accumulating across the foothills and piedmont and 4 inches across the NC mountians in a 12-hour period, or 4 inches across the foothills and piedmont and 5 inches across the NC mountains in a 24-hour period. Damaging ice accumulations typically result from freezing rain accumulating 1/4 inch or more on exposed surface. It has been locally determined that 1/2 inch of sleet is considered "heavy" for Watch and Warning purposes. I can't imagine now GSP isn't hoisting WS WATCH criteria at least. I know >3" have fallen in some areas because I have it IMBY right now. Anyone know why GSP has been so conservative this year? Did the criteria wildly change or something? Last year this would have had storm warnings up all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE, BMX, and TAE are following suit, maybe more. SNELSON @ FFC Zero posted here last year, I believe. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've never understood how a model can "not be in its wheel house" from 0-72 hours and then miraculously be the best from 72-144. might have something to do with how it initializes the data in the area most storms are at that far away? if before that point the if the data in that area is not as significant it may not impact the outcome of the calculations but when the main ingredients are in an area that is not being sampled as well or what have you it makes mistakes? thats all that would make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, I'm the SOO here. Have been absent from here for a while, but lurking during Xmas and our current winter storm. Keep the fun discussion rolling. Ahh. Welcome back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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