kanc2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd hate to be forecasting for ILM right now. The temp gradients on the 12z GFS are incredible. When it's 32 with ZR at Florence, it's 51 with rain at North Myrtle. What a nightmare to forecast. welcome to my nightmare I dont envy them a bit up there at KILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. I'm not sure why just because the Christmas s/w trended stronger it means this one will, too. Right now, every model is showing the disturbance weaker and weaker compared to prior runs, at least in the range when it gets to the Gulf. Maybe this will be like Christmas and it will make a "model comeback," but that's probably a dangerous assumption to make. I realize something similar happened at Christmas, but to have the model consensus start to veer off/change is a bit unconcerting. There was a lot of consensus for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Very true....but this stuff drives me bonkers. Truthfully though we are probably in the time frame to stop watching the EURO...as Cheez referred to earlier. But I do like to get confirmation from as many models as possible but the EURO is not in its "wheel house" right now. I've never understood how a model can "not be in its wheel house" from 0-72 hours and then miraculously be the best from 72-144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So what we are seeing is a wetter solution to begin with and a dryer solution once we hit NC, GA, SC. Farther North and higher for areas that would have received nothing like middle Tenn. hits the jackpot in the earlier panels. But then moisture just disappears as time goes on. Rather quickly we lose our storm. Don't agree with it one bit! But @ the same time we have to account for the fact the High pressure to the north may be strong enough with dryer air to dry the storm up! But this is fast , the only other thing is could a strong NW flow be happening and hitting the mountains and drying everything out east of the mountains with down slope winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've never understood how a model can "not be in its wheel house" from 0-72 hours and then miraculously be the best from 72-144. We had a talk at work a few years ago about this- from a pure model physics standpoint the Euro is no better than the GFS. It is all in the initialization. So when the models are initialized very similar, the Euro is no better and sometimes worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow: 416 User(s) are reading this topic 221 members, 187 guests, 8 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1/7/2011 12Z ECMWF QPF: -------------------------------------- CAE: 0.38 CHS: 0.58 CLT: 0.31 GSP: 0.25 ATL: 0.40 RDU: 0.24 SAV: 0.49 HSV: 0.52 ILM: 0.61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. I'm not sure why just because the Christmas s/w trended stronger it means this one will, too. Right now, every model is showing the disturbance weaker and weaker compared to prior runs, at least in the range when it gets to the Gulf. Maybe this will be like Christmas and it will make a "model comeback," but that's probably a dangerous assumption to make. It really doesn't and you are right but it is a known, recent bias with the EURO but that doesn't guarantee one thing either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does the Euro QPF also show a drier solution for AL ? Someone from another weather forum says the Euro QPF shows a lot of snow for East AL, which I'm assuming would also be good for parts of Georgia. Yep. EURO QPF is <.50" for pretty much all of MS/AL/GA except for the extreme southern sections of those states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Who needs the Euro when you can have Asian instead? 72 HOUR JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've never understood how a model can "not be in its wheel house" from 0-72 hours and then miraculously be the best from 72-144. When you play the game of modelology and weenieology, it makes perfect sense. In reality-land, it's not guaranteed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep. EURO QPF is <.50" for pretty much all of MS/AL/GA except for the extreme southern sections of those states. .52 at Huntsville in the far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Huge favor Shawn...would you look at MEG/RMG and CHA for me? I really appreciate it in advance! 1/7/2011 12Z ECMWF QPF: -------------------------------------- RMG: 0.38 CHA: 0.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We had a talk at work a few years ago about this- from a pure model physics standpoint the Euro is no better than the GFS. It is all in the initialization. So when the models are initialized very similar, the Euro is no better and sometimes worse. Later on when we get a lull between storms I'm going to bring this up again. I'd like to know more about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Remember folks, the Euro qpf is not its strong suit, but I do admit this run is disappointing. One thing if you actually compare the vort max tracks with all of the models, the Euro is not all that different. So it all has to do with how the models generate precip. This is not evidence for cliff diving.....yet. I told my Facebook friends that ATL area would get 4-6", and based on what I am seeing this looks like a good first call. What worries me equally as much as the low QPTs it is showing, is the trend. It's been showing less and less for several runs in a row. That gives me pause. HPC doesn't really help as they are taking a compromise, as usual, of all the guidance. I'm not sure how well the euro does in situations like this, though it was fairly accurate with the last several systems IIRC. But this is a different setup so not sure that means much. Also of note is the ggem not being quite as wet either. The 12z run looks around 0.50 for most places. So although the models agree really well on the main features, the agreement on precip totals leaves a lot to be desired and really makes it difficult to pin down how much we are looking at. I think your 4 to 6 is a pretty good with my personal opinion being 4 to 7. But the potential is there for several more inches because of the high ratios initially and the potential for enhanced areas of snow if you believe the nam/gfs. Euro of course disagrees. So bottom line Euro shows 3 to 5 (though higher ratios might make it more on the order of 4 to 6) and the gfs/nam shows the potential for a foot in some places. Aggravating to see that much difference when we were seeing such good agreement up until yesterday since you expect to see more agreement as we draw closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 .52 at Huntsville in the far north Well I guess it's the StormVista maps I'm looking at. LOL They didn't have any >.50" color blobs up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well I guess it's the StormVista maps I'm looking at. LOL They didn't have any >.50" color blobs up there. It's close..also .54 at Chattanooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Knowing how the Euro can lose things and weaken them at this range makes me think I don't need to pay a lot of attention to this run. The amount of shearing and the speed it does it is very suspect to me and I am inclined to throw those aspects of this run out, but the track is probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Later on when we get a lull between storms I'm going to bring this up again. I'd like to know more about this. The Euro is officially out of it's awesome period. The American models are now just as good, if not better since the storm is within 72 hours. I believe the GFS goes to total poop after 192 hours. Not sure about the NAM. I'm not sure what is different about the GGEM, as I absolutely cannot stand their low quality maps that are free, but it wants to shaft NC on precip and hit SC hard with snow for some reason. Any input on that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's close..also .54 at Chattanooga Now it did have >50" up in parts of TN but I didn't mention that in my other post. I would image whatever TN gets in QPF that the amounts would be higher the further south you go so I'm not sure if I buy what the EURO is showing just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow: 416 User(s) are reading this topic 221 members, 187 guests, 8 anonymous users lol..blowing away the numbers we had on eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On the bright side: if these Euro QPF numbers hold, a lot of us won't need to worry much about icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 btw, it's interesting to note the euro is showing LESS than 0.10 across nc with this clipper, at least from the looks on my source. Of course the gfs/nam have at least 0.25 in spots. So it makes you wonder if it's underestimating precip with this storm if the gfs/nam verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks, Shawn. Extrapolated amounts of 4 to 5 on the EURO in this area versus 12 to 15 on the 6z NAM and 8 to 10 on the 12z NAM. I'll take my darn 3 and be happy! :-) Yeah, the Euro is weakening the system extremely fast as it moves East. That's why you guys have okay totals that far up.. and as it goes further east.. precip really disappears. I don't trust such a fast weakening at all. Edit: Wrong wording....meant to say.. you guys get in on the precip before it starts to weaken out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just liking the set up in general for here, the qpf will work out IMHO. Great analog to 88 according to GSP so not gonna get too concerned about the qpf ups and downs. The forecast back then was a dusting to 2" and we ended up buried alive. I know the technology is a ton better now but still not a certain thing especially when talking about the amount of water. I still wouldn't advise anyone to expect a foot of snow to be on the safe side. I'll stick with 3-6" for here...for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's good to see the JMA still believes. Compared to the JMA yesterday at 72hrs. I have a hard time believing panels 96 and 120 on the JMA won't be a lot stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's good to see the JMA still believes. Compared to the JMA yesterday at 72hrs. I have a hard time believing panels 96 and 120 on the JMA won't be a lot stronger. Hell, the JMA looks to be a good bit of snow all the way down to CAE also. A little bit colder/way more precip for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ECMWF model had a very hard time right before the Christmas storm too. It became crazy and shot the storm out to sea, then right before the storm his it went back to the other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ECMWF model had a very hard time right before the Christmas storm too. It became crazy and shot the storm out to sea, then right before the storm his it went back to the other runs. The Euro pretty much ended up being right from the original runs 4-5 days before (before it started to bury CAE with feet of snow haha) and ultimately we had a 997MB low off the coast of CHS I believe even though even now-casting, the models weren't picking up on it that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE...12z GFS 5" snow with .45 ZR 110110/0600Z 66 08006KT 28.0F SNOW 18:1| 1.0|| 1.0 0.055|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/0900Z 69 06008KT 27.7F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 2.0 0.094|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 72 05011KT 27.7F SNOW 19:1| 3.1|| 5.1 0.161|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1500Z 75 06014KT 30.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.185|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.00 0.19|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110110/1800Z 78 06012KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.224|| 0.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.24|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110110/2100Z 81 05013KT 32.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.197|| 0.92 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 84 06014KT 32.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.098|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0300Z 87 04013KT 32.0F UP 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.110|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0| 0 110111/0600Z 90 04015KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.067|| 1.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110111/0900Z 93 03012KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.008|| 1.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110111/1200Z 96 02011KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 5.1 0.020|| 1.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.45 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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