burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @54 it's stronger and north, precip is going into LA and OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I apologized if this has been posted before, but FFC seems on board now for the potential of a Winter Storm Watch/Warning... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS SHOWS NOSE OF WARM AIR INTO METRO AREA AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THOUGH. ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS NOSE OF WARM AIR DOES NOT APPEAR UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE CWA INCREASE ON MONDAY. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT RAIN OR SNOW CASE. OVERALL THOUGH...SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW/SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THOUGH AS FREEZING RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME AREAS. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSATL/ FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST THOUGH...A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS OF THE CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah its definitely further north than 0z. 552dm contour nosing in this time at 60 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow! 319 User(s) are reading this topic 175 members, 138 guests, 6 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah its definitely further north than 0z Much better looking at 60...let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icecube Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not into model diagnostics, but I know the euro is run on a different platform all together than the gfs. It seems to capture the rotation and depth of these cutoffs much better than the gfs does. Consequently it performs better in these situations. Thanks, my understanding is that the EC has higher resolution and different (supposedly better) initialization techniques. Was wondering what else may be different. Cheez, thanks as well. I agree that the EC does better most times in the medium range, with other models catching up to it in the short range. It seems most HPC forecasters hold the EC up as the gold standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeh i like the look better at 60 vs the 00z run at 72. See if good comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @66 it looks like our low is weakening? Precip shield is still further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Heaviest precip in C TN this time.. 0z had it in N AL. This looks more like the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd hate to be forecasting for ILM right now. The temp gradients on the 12z GFS are incredible. When it's 32 with ZR at Florence, it's 51 with rain at North Myrtle. What a nightmare to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol wow folks in middle TN are gonna love this run. Again further north @72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thru 72 hours (7am Monday) EURO has QPF <.25" for most of N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It really weakens the SLP rapidly once it hits NC/SC/GA. Precip has been hard to come by with the last few European runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 By 1pm Monday Euro barely has >.25" QPF for Atlanta and most of N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yea but doesn't the GFS and NAM almost always keep us warmer then we actually end up being, especially in CAD or Wedge sceneries? Could be wrong but just what I thought. Burger, Back in the day...(early to mid 2000's) we had a lot more CAD scenarios (or so I remember). The NAM always scored better with reconition of the termpature profiles during CAD situations. Brandon and Robert (CAD experts IMO) can edit all of this as needed. Anyway, I see the NAM with the colder temps now. However, as the storm is pumping more precip when it is crossing over SC or already at the Atlanic, it seems that the precip picks up, but our 850's give us the middle finger and warm. Not sure how to provide any other input but to say...BRANDON, ALAN, WOW and ROBERT take the sticks and drive this airplane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hard to read on Plymouth but looks like 1012 low on Gulf Coast at 72 hours? Weaker than 12z GFS at same time????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It really weakens the SLP rapidly once it hits NC/SC/GA Yea, it really dampens things out at 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro shears this sucker out faster than any of them. Kind of a role reversal with the GFS I'd say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The trend continues -- got to get this thing turned around with 0z runs are we're going to have an empty QPF gas tank. It really weakens the SLP rapidly once it hits NC/SC/GA. Precip has been hard to come by with the last few European runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 By 1pm Monday Euro barely has >.25" QPF for Atlanta and most of N GA. No worries Dawson. This is a different setup from Christmas and I know that but the EURO started this exactly 2 days before the Dec 25th event and the NAM/GFS started trending toward the older EURO solution. It's like wash, rinse and repeat. I think we are golden right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro shears this sucker out faster than any of them. Kind of a role reversal with the GFS I'd say! Did the same thing last night, I'm putting my efforts into the NAM/GFS since they are getting into their good solution range. I'll post QPF for major cities here soon off the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 James Spann from Bham has adjusted his snowfall maps to show the heaviest snow further south than previously indicated. 4-8" for Birmingham and ATlanta and points south, 2-4" for most of North AL and North GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 No worries Dawson. This is a different setup from Christmas and I know that but the EURO started this exactly 2 days before the Dec 25th event and the NAM/GFS started trending toward the older EURO solution. It's like wash, rinse and repeat. I think we are golden right now. Very true....but this stuff drives me bonkers. Truthfully though we are probably in the time frame to stop watching the EURO...as Cheez referred to earlier. But I do like to get confirmation from as many models as possible but the EURO is not in its "wheel house" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No worries Dawson. This is a different setup from Christmas and I know that but the EURO started this exactly 2 days before the Dec 25th event and the NAM/GFS started trending toward the older EURO solution. It's like wash, rinse and repeat. I think we are golden right now. You're right about that. I'm still not too worried, if you look at 60 to 72 it just really weakens our low, which is what it was doing in the time frame you talk about with the last storm. However reality was our low didn't weaken that much. Still like where we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree with this statement. However, nice it is to have models on your side....Awaiting the GFS Members for the 12 run..... Very true....but this stuff drives me bonkers. Truthfully though we are probably in the time frame to stop watching the EURO...as Cheez referred to earlier. But I do like to get confirmation from as many models as possible but the EURO is not in its wheel house right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Remember folks, the Euro qpf is not its strong suit, but I do admit this run is disappointing. One thing if you actually compare the vort max tracks with all of the models, the Euro is not all that different. So it all has to do with how the models generate precip. This is not evidence for cliff diving.....yet. I told my Facebook friends that ATL area would get 4-6", and based on what I am seeing this looks like a good first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bunch of 850 RH over all of N.C. at 96 hours -- any QPF under it? EDIT: Never mind, I see 700 RH has moved NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Remember folks, the Euro qpf is not its strong suit, but I do admit this run is disappointing. One thing if you actually compare the vort max tracks with all of the models, the Euro is not all that different. So it all has to do with how the models generate precip. This is not evidence for cliff diving.....yet. I told my Facebook friends that ATL area would get 4-6", and based on what I am seeing this looks like a good first call. I haven't seen the Euro qpf, but is it showing more precip south of Atlanta which would possibly mean the heaviest snow being south of Atlanta ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Very true....but this stuff drives me bonkers. Truthfully though we are probably in the time frame to stop watching the EURO...as Cheez referred to earlier. But I do like to get confirmation from as many models as possible but the EURO is not in its "wheel house" right now. I realize something similar happened at Christmas, but to have the model consensus start to veer off/change is a bit unconcerting. There was a lot of consensus for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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