Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems like the NAM is moving along with the trend of weakening the s/w further. Not looking too good right now for us. Compared to the 18z GFS, does it look like the NAM is following suite with the 500MB? Edit: I mean, the actual depiction of the timing etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Slightly neg tilt at 66...Precip picking up in E. Tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like the northern energy might be catching up with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just a reminder about the general forum model threads as things run tonight for anyone interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes. large 1.00" amounts around E tx Slightly neg tilt at 66...Precip picking up in E. Tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems like the NAM is moving along with the trend of weakening the s/w further. Not looking too good right now for us. No, just takes longer to become negatively tilted- not much different in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, just takes longer to become negatively tilted- not much different in strength. Yea at 69 it's really cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, just takes longer to become negatively tilted- not much different in strength. I agree looking at it further.. it's slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 why are you guys comparing 12z and 00Z with 6 and 18 z. Anyway the Nam looks excellent, about how I expected it to look. 1" qpf in much of eastern Tx. Not bad at all, and on par with the Euro Edit, theres 1.75" to 2" around DFW. Juicy system and going neg. tilt. Its energy of the vort will get shunted into Miss. later on, and the energy transfer will broaden and generate widespread vorticity and lift, meaning good wide area snow coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its looking ok out to 66 at this point with more moisture increasing back in tx, not quite time to panic yet (at least i keep telling my self that lol) why are you guys comparing 12z and 00Z with 6 and 18 z. Anyway the Nam looks excellent, about how I expected it to look. 1" qpf in much of eastern Tx. Not bad at all, and on par with the Euro Edit, theres 1.75" to 2" around DFW. Juicy system and going neg. tilt. Its energy of the vort will get shunted into Miss. later on, and the energy transfer will broaden and generate widespread vorticity and lift, meaning good wide area snow coverage. said much better than i did! by 72 its coming into ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 72 hours the precip is in n. Miss and central Al, although it looks a little warm there. Good qpf, and very good southerly flow over La, southern Ark and Miss, with good divergence and shortwave ridging. For the NAM, I'm surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks odd at 72. I'm seeing 2 lows at the same strength down there. What's going on with that? http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06072.gif it's not a big deal.. just computing the SLP center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow look at all that precip in LA at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A better run so far, then the 18z NAM, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 72 hours the precip is in n. Miss and central Al, although it looks a little warm there. Good qpf, and very good southerly flow over La, southern Ark and Miss, with good divergence and shortwave ridging. For the NAM, I'm surprised. uh oh, maybe not good for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Simulated rader on the 0z NAM appears to show the precip shield further south than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 why are you guys comparing 12z and 00Z with 6 and 18 z. Anyway the Nam looks excellent, about how I expected it to look. 1" qpf in much of eastern Tx. Not bad at all, and on par with the Euro Edit, theres 1.75" to 2" around DFW. Juicy system and going neg. tilt. Its energy of the vort will get shunted into Miss. later on, and the energy transfer will broaden and generate widespread vorticity and lift, meaning good wide area snow coverage. Robert, I am worried about temperature thicknesses though for our areas. Thoughts? Off topic...did you see the low progged for tomorrow? I noticed that at hr 24. You look to be jackpot for that little (maybe significant?) system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 uh oh, maybe not good for this area You might want to go in your profile and add your location...we'd be much obliged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @81 it's north with the majority of the precip heading through central and northern AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow look at all that precip in LA at 75 The nam has accum. approaching 2" ,and widespread 1.50" to 1.75" amounts, extremely impressed with the amoutn of moisture and that part I agree with. However, it failes to put enough moisture ahead of the WAA in western Tnn and n. Ala early on, and also has too much warm advection, compared to the Euro. If you adjust for errors that are likely with the nam, you end up with a whopping snowstorm in southern to central Arkansas, northern half of Miss, northern half of Ala and getting into Ga and southern third of Tenn or so, although I'm stil uncomfortable with the northern extent. Overall, too warm back west, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 All I care about is that SW diving in from the PAC NW--seems a smidge faster. Anyone NE of CLT should only care about that. That big blob of QPF in TX don't really mean much--other then a reflection of the SW maybe hanging tough a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You might want to go in your profile and add your location...we'd be much obliged fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 0z NAM precip shield at 78 hrs is 200 miles south of where it was at 84 hrs on the 18z. edit: Looks like there is less interaction w/ the feature to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't know what it's worth since it probably pulls from the 18z data but the 21z SREF Mean looks more like the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The nam has accum. approaching 2" ,and widespread 1.50" to 1.75" amounts, extremely impressed with the amoutn of moisture and that part I agree with. However, it failes to put enough moisture ahead of the WAA in western Tnn and n. Ala early on, and also has too much warm advection, compared to the Euro. If you adjust for errors that are likely with the nam, you end up with a whopping snowstorm in southern to central Arkansas, northern half of Miss, northern half of Ala and getting into Ga and southern third of Tenn or so, although I'm stil uncomfortable with the northern extent. Overall, too warm back west, IMO. So you are saying the NAM is displaying the normal warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, it's actually southWEST and I think that might be more a function of speed rather than track. The 0z NAM precip shield at 78 hrs is 200 miles south of where it was at 84 hrs on the 18z. edit: Looks like there is less interaction w/ the feature to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Simulated rader on the 0z NAM appears to show the precip shield further south than 18z. thats what i was thinking too, initially. but it seems to have come on in just fine at the end of the run (fwiw lol) by 81 and 84 most of us will be in the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 0z NAM precip shield at 78 hrs is 200 miles south of where it was at 84 hrs on the 18z. edit: Looks like there is less interaction w/ the feature to the northwest. It's probably just because this run of the NAM is much slower than the 18z run timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 0z NAM precip shield at 78 hrs is 200 miles south of where it was at 84 hrs on the 18z. edit: Looks like there is less interaction w/ the feature to the northwest. I don't kjnow about 200 miles, but at 78 it is obviously MUCH further south. Those looking @ the 81 hours said it was more north, so maybe we'll see a significant move north @ 84. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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