Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Once again, the GGEM is a good snow hit for most of SC even to Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Columbia, GSP, Florence, etc before going over to a little sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If only this would come true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Between 0.5-0.75" QPF over most of NC. Better for N NC, but it's actually not that far from the general consensus. Better than most though. EDIT: Probably more than that.. just saw the 6 hr frames. Nice band over W NC there at 84. Don't think the cumulative maps account for it. Shame it's the DGEX! I know right! . You know I am getting worried when I start believing the DGEX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS ens mean QPF, excluding the clipper (24-144hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are these DGEX maps accurate at all ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I believe at this point, that map is missing some GA accumulation also since it starts at hr 84. Yeah I think most of the precip will have fallen for Atlanta westward by hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are these DGEX maps accurate at all ? usually not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are these DGEX maps accurate at all ? The DGEX has really weird temp issues... but it's snowfall map has been pretty consistent for quite a while with this storm now. If you look at it close though... the snowfall doesn't match the temps it progs.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JMA looks like it's on board but this is yesterdays 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are these DGEX maps accurate at all ? Almost always, no. The DGEX and NOGAPS are two models for entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 HKY, is this based on experience, model design, something else, combo? Hello to the board. I'm not into model diagnostics, but I know the euro is run on a different platform all together than the gfs. It seems to capture the rotation and depth of these cutoffs much better than the gfs does. Consequently it performs better in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not into model diagnostics, but I know the euro is run on a different platform all together than the gfs. It seems to capture the rotation and depth of these cutoffs much better than the gfs does. Consequently it performs better in these situations. Yes, but once you get within 72 hours, I am not sure the Euro is that much better than a lot of the other short-term guidance we have access to. Also, its qpf has some issues. It is superior in the 3-6 day time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JAN is talking about a regional call with HPC and that watches/warnings will be issued shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Optimistic post time: This is from 6z, but check out the GFS ensemble members and how the precip spread and amts vary even at 72 hrs. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf078.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Meteorologist Allan Huffman's snow forecast map. Link: http://www.examiner....h/allan-huffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yet very constant on the SLP placement in the GOM. btw, I like it when you are optimistic. Optimistic post time: This is from 6z, but check out the GFS ensemble members and how the precip spread and amts vary even at 72 hrs. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf078.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What would really get me giddy as a schoolgirl is if the s/w suddenly initiates much stronger than what has been forecast up til now. Euro begins any minute now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Optimistic post time: This is from 6z, but check out the GFS ensemble members and how the precip spread and amts vary even at 72 hrs. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf078.html I noticed on the 6z ensemble members that even though the mean QPF at least for Raleigh came out to around 0.5 inches most members were more than that, there were a acouple dry members that I guess brought the average down. Looking foward to seeing the members a little bit. The PSU members are updating as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From WCNC(news station) http://www.wcnc.com/...-113008909.html Winter storm forecast Monday-TuesdayWhile the snow Friday night will be light, a significant snow storm will hit Charlotte and the surrounding area Monday and Tuesday. The newest data shows the system is moving slower than it was Thursday, meaning the snow might hold off until after the morning rush hour on Monday. This also means temperatures at the start will be a tad warmer since it's during the daylight hours. So, some snow/sleet/rain mix is likely during the day. Then, by late afternoon, this should change to all snow and become heavy Monday night. The period between Monday evening and Tuesday morning will be the time the heaviest snow and sleet will fall. The track of the low pressure system and the slower movement means snow could last well into Tuesday afternoon. It's still very early but First Warn Storm Team Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich says he has a better idea on possible amounts. Here's the break down by region: Mountains 6-12 inches of snow. Some of this comes from the actual storm but even as the low moves away, northwest flow on the back side will bring additional snow to the mountains through Thursday. These amounts may actually go up because of the flow behind the storm. Foothills, northern Piedmont and I-40 corridor 3-5 inches. This is the area where the more south the track goes, the less snow you will see. Piedmont and Charlotte metro 4-6 inches. Even with heavy precipitation, the amount of accumulations could be kept down by melting and mixing of sleet and rain. If this stays primarily snow, the amounts could be much higher. Upstate of South Carolina 2-4 inches of snow with some freezing rain mixing in. This area likely has the highest ice potential overnight Monday into Tuesday. Plus, there will be lots of rain mixing in over South Carolina at times. There are still many changes possible with this storm but confidence is growing that we will be impacted by a major winter storm. The only questions are how much. Expect winter storm watches to be issued Saturday with a possible warning by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well the DGEX has been consistent at least and with it seeming like we are in the jackpot might as well believe it .....by the way I'm with Brandon on this, I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed or anything but I don't see why people are getting worked up over a days worth of "trends". If tomorrow it keeps going down then I'll be on the cliff but like I said earlier I'm willing to make a large wager that the northern shield gets much healthier by 12z or 00z tomorrow. I totally agree about the "one day": of trends. HOWEVER (not being mean or pessimistic here) one CONSTANT trend I have seen is the temps the past few runs. The only positive caveat has been the 0Z and 06Z runs of the NAM being colder through the duration. All along, I have been harping on TEMPS. I do not know all the terminology, but it seems the PV has to weaken or strengthen out in the midwest (not sure what you call it) in order to keep our heights from ridging up on the EC?? WOW or a Red Tag can correct me. Case in point, we have the amount of precip progged and it is "good enough", BUT if the temps are an issue, we do not have enough precip to compensate for it. Hoping and praying tonights runs shed some consistency in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I totally agree about the "one day": of trends. HOWEVER (not being mean or pessimistic here) one CONSTANT trend I have seen is the temps the past few runs. The only positive caveat has been the 0Z and 06Z runs of the NAM being colder through the duration. All along, I have been harping on TEMPS. I do not know all the terminology, but it seems the PV has to weaken or strengthen out in the midwest (not sure what you call it) in order to keep our heights from ridging up on the EC?? WOW or a Red Tag can correct me. Case in point, we have the amount of precip progged and it is "good enough", BUT if the temps are an issue, we do not have enough precip to compensate for it. Hoping and praying tonights runs shed some consistency in the other direction. Yea but doesn't the GFS and NAM almost always keep us warmer then we actually end up being, especially in CAD or Wedge sceneries? Could be wrong but just what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Out to 36 on the Euro and the precip in TX looks a little healthier then the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro rolling, at 42 virtually identical to 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It Initialized off a little stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @42 it's a tad further north hopefully that will translate down to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Out to 36 on the Euro and the precip in TX looks a little healthier then the 00z run. trough a hair deeper and more neutral tilt with a bit more downstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro rolling, at 42 virtually identical to 00Z @42 it's a tad further north hopefully that will translate down to us. Small changes. We'll see how it affects the output ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @48 precip sheild is further north into TX...no matter what this is going to be a widespread event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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