The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 2

[FoothillsNC]

the 5H looks like a carbon copy of the NAM and Euro. The vort is still strong in western Miss. at 60 hours so good lift into the Southeast.

Stunning good setup at 72, the 850 low in southern Miss. the 925 temps are very cold even south of ATl (where by now ICE) and a good bit of precip , and the shield is up to I 40 in TN.

[Gastonwxman]

By 66, moisture is spreading into AL and GA with the low at 1008mb. Still plenty cold further east.

[Amos83]

just checked and the 12Z NAM is not as bad as I had feared for CLT. 6z spit out about 5.5" and the 12Z still does the same with it still snowing at the end of its range.

[MotoWeatherman]

My first post, TWC says some places could get 4 in. Would that not be the least if everything plans out?

You are correct! Also please update your profile to include your location.

Thanks!

[burgertime]

Looks like at this run the GFS is having a hard time with temps...could that be because of the CAD?

[HWY316wx]

@66 the 850 freezing line is down around Tifton! Holy SMOKES!

Moisture is a big hit for all points northward in GA. Unreal.

[FoothillsNC]

This run doesnt' give much to me, but has a tight graident just to the south with abot .75 from Columbia to just south of ATL and points west. Northern and NW NC has virtually nothing so far through 84.

[Gastonwxman]

Looks like it tries to take away the moisture at 78 leaving NC quite cold and dry.

[burgertime]

Well verbatim the GFS is sticking to it's guns about amounts in NC...@84 looks like .25 - .35 has fallen in the CLT area.

[burgertime]

This run doesnt' give much to me, but has a tight graident just to the south with abot .75 from Columbia to just south of ATL and points west. Northern and NW NC has virtually nothing so far through 84.

Looks like it tries to take away the moisture at 78 leaving NC quite cold and dry.

The one plus from this is it looks like it's keeping us under some alright precip into Tuesday afternoon.

[Stormsfury]

The colder 12Z NAM gives CHS ~1" of snow (it is at 28F with a TD of 25 at 12Z MON) and even gives some ZR at SAV (when it is at 32 Fwith TD of 25)! The key is how far inland the marine low level layer will be able to penetrate. There has been a trend on the models since early yesterday to strengthen the cold/dry wedging coming down from the cold high to the the NW/N. It will be battling the marine layer. The dense low level wedge often wins (often fooling the models) or at least it doesn't normally give up easily. TD's get down to an incredibly low 4 F as of 10AM on SUN at both cities! CHS NWS forecast office has a really toughie with this system as the temp/TD gradient is going to be incredibly tight near the upper GA and lower SC coasts...about as tight as one would ever see.

Playing a ton of catchup today since Internet went out at 5 pm yesterday afternoon and just came back sometime overnight while I slept.

Wedging on a decent variety almost always wins out and keeps NNE winds throughout the event. Lows usually end up at least in the wedged configuration following the wall of the Gulf Stream where generally the least path of resistance. This morning's guidance thinks the SLP is too close to the coast of the Carolinas with the wedge firmly in place, and I thoroughly believe the cold air goes nowhere, especially when decent enough precip rates continue to feed the diabatic cooling process. It would be a very rare scenario climo wise though for KCHS to stay snow throughout BUT the given setup with 850mb below 0z to start and SFC temperatures to remain below freezing for a mostly snow event is possible. I am still very very concerned for warm nosing to change precip over to IP/ZR, especially closer to the coast, more particularly SE GA.

As you pointed out with dewpoints that low, this one won't be denied. January 1988 comes to mind. Dewpoints were 3º the morning of with a 30º temperature as I headed to school that morning. That storm came in during the day. This one is progged to come at night. There was a STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THAT OCCURRED in the morning, however, I couldn't muster any snow. Sleet storm during the day even with temperatures falling to 20º by 1 PM. The low was weak then too but the warm nosing won out keeping precip IP to eventually a change to ZR by evening and latent heat from intense precipitation rates here actually saved me from more ice accretions. the isentropic lift on a widespread level and overrunning was the key for such heavy precipitation. However in the January 1988 storm the 850mb ended up much warmer than what is currently being progged. 850mb's climbed to +6 over KCHS, and even changed to heavy rain in KCHS, but stayed 32º here.

This storm is progged to be colder at the 850mb level.

[FoothillsNC]

through 90 theres a precip min right about my area to Spartanburg but .50" or greater all around. By 96, the surface low is strenghtening on the Coast and still snowing.

What I think still is this is a great track. The surface low weakens along Fl. coast then re-strengthens, meaning there could be a qpf min over the Upstate and western NC, but I urge caution in this one instance, normally I'd agree very much with something drying up here, however most storm tracks like this actually give bonus snow to western SC, esp. with a good northeast Wind and strong overrunning coming in from the west, and the lee trough thats established from AVL to CHS. The models are having a hard time here with QPF I think because of the incoming Rockies and Plains shearing vort.

[beanskip]

So far, not really seeing a trend of strengthening the southern stream vs. prior runs. If anything, the trend is to weaken the surface low faster than prior runs. Still plenty of time for that trend to reverse, of course (see: Christmas storm) but I'm pretty much ready for that trend to commence before ALL my QPF disappears.

[snow for dylan]

:thumbsup:i cant find how to put my location... i am from cumming ga though,

[Wild Weather Monger]

Wow, just wow. Thru 7am Monday, GFS puts down .6 qpf @ PDK easily all snow. In fact, cold enough for something on the of 15:1 ratio's I would think. That elusive 10" snowfall for mby is not out of the realm of possibility!

;

[burgertime]

through 90 theres a precip min right about my area to Spartanburg but .50" or greater all around. By 96, the surface low is strenghtening on the Coast and still snowing.

What I think still is this is a great track. The surface low weakens along Fl. coast then re-strengthens, meaning there could be a qpf min over the Upstate and western NC, but I urge caution in this one instance, normally I'd agree very much with something drying up here, however most storm tracks like this actually give bonus snow to western SC, esp. with a good northeast Wind and strong overrunning coming in from the west, and the lee trough thats established from AVL to CHS. The models are having a hard time here with QPF I think because of the incoming Rockies and Plains shearing vort.

Here we are right on cue the GFS is weakening the storm. Hope it isn't right but I just have a hard time buying that none of that precip makes it to us. On this run I am just inside the heavier precip on the storm as it goes up the coast.....which is too close for comfort verbatim. However I don't buy that everything stays that south. Tomorrow will come the northern expansion of the precip field, I'll bet you 100 bucks.

[dsaur]

The colder 12Z NAM gives CHS ~1" of snow (it is at 28F with a TD of 25 at 12Z MON) and even gives some ZR at SAV (when it is at 32 Fwith TD of 25)! The key is how far inland the marine low level layer will be able to penetrate. There has been a trend on the models since early yesterday to strengthen the cold/dry wedging coming down from the cold high to the the NW/N. It will be battling the marine layer. The dense low level wedge often wins (often fooling the models) or at least it doesn't normally give up easily. TD's get down to an incredibly low 4 F as of 10AM on SUN at both cities! CHS NWS forecast office has a really toughie with this system as the temp/TD gradient is going to be incredibly tight near the upper GA and lower SC coasts...about as tight as one would ever see.

While I sure hope you see frozen something in Sav. but I hope it is sleet. I can't remember when a potential storm was coming into temps below 31 or 29, so I'm hoping the strength of the cold air will negate some of the upper level warming. We'll see, but I guess you have a chance for something historic whether you stay there or come home, lol. Tony

[Lookout]

Something to keep in mind when trying to decide when the warm nose arrives. Each plot is the 850mb temp at the given time stamp while the precip is for the previous 6 hours. To get a good idea of how much falls as snow, look at the prior map and the location of the 0c line. On the gfs for example, at hour 72, it runs from roughly rome to augusta..of course precip is still falling at this time. But at hour 78 it has moved to the north. This implies that at least part of the 6 hour precip that falls between 78 and 84 is snow. But it's easy to mistakenly look at the 78 hour map and think all of it is something other than snow.

By hour 78, (even though most of the heaviest precip has moved out of these areas), the 850mb temps of only 1 or 2c run along a gainesville to north of augusta to south of columbia line. But if you combine that with 950mb to surface temps in the mid to upper 20s implies that whatever is falling by this time is probably light sleet. north of augusta to columbia and freezing drizzle/freezing light rain south of there.

By hour 84, whatever is left falling should be freezing rain/drizzle though as the boundary layer warms a little and the warm nose expands.

Interesting to see the gfs hang back more light freezing rain after the main event this run.

[Wow]

through 90 theres a precip min right about my area to Spartanburg but .50" or greater all around. By 96, the surface low is strenghtening on the Coast and still snowing.

What I think still is this is a great track. The surface low weakens along Fl. coast then re-strengthens, meaning there could be a qpf min over the Upstate and western NC, but I urge caution in this one instance, normally I'd agree very much with something drying up here, however most storm tracks like this actually give bonus snow to western SC, esp. with a good northeast Wind and strong overrunning coming in from the west, and the lee trough thats established from AVL to CHS. The models are having a hard time here with QPF I think because of the incoming Rockies and Plains shearing vort.

You're right, it's a tight gradient. the 1" QPF line is only about 50 miles south of CLT!

[Eastnc]

Foothills or any Mod: Could you kindly educate an ol lurker and give some examples of the miles off the coast, close to coast, ect that would effect the carolinas especially with this strom? I have read about the positions of Miller A/B storms but if it could be put in laymen terms, much appreciated... If I posted this in the wrong area please advise and move appropriately. Thanks in advance

through 90 theres a precip min right about my area to Spartanburg but .50" or greater all around. By 96, the surface low is strenghtening on the Coast and still snowing.

What I think still is this is a great track. The surface low weakens along Fl. coast then re-strengthens, meaning there could be a qpf min over the Upstate and western NC, but I urge caution in this one instance, normally I'd agree very much with something drying up here, however most storm tracks like this actually give bonus snow to western SC, esp. with a good northeast Wind and strong overrunning coming in from the west, and the lee trough thats established from AVL to CHS. The models are having a hard time here with QPF I think because of the incoming Rockies and Plains shearing vort.

[GAdawg]

:thumbsup:i cant find how to put my location... i am from cumming ga though,

Go up to the top of this page and over to the left you will see where it shows you are signed in. Next to your sign in name there is a arrow for a drop down list click on the arrow. Then go to my profile and click. Then go to the right side of screen just under the light blue area and you will see the edit my profile click there to make any changes.

[strongwxnc]

Way to close for confront over here in wnc. I agree with burger

You're right, it's a tight gradient. the 1" QPF line is only about 50 miles south of CLT!

[weatherheels]

One has to start believing that this storm is going to dampen it's self out by the time it gets to NC, just like quite a few Mets on here have said. I know some our saying the models come in weaker in this time period, and that may be the case, however, the trend is obvious. I have really lowerd my expectations for my neck of the woods, hoping for a couple inches?? I am now hanging my hat on the fact someone in the deep south could get pounded. I'm going to say that if the 12z Euro doesn't do it for us in C.NC it isn't gonna happen, and I was so damn excited this morning after the 6z NAM, lol.

[FoothillsNC]

You're right, it's a tight gradient. the 1" QPF line is only about 50 miles south of CLT!

exactly, and i just found out why the GFS diminishes our precip by its arrival here. Its 5H is great, and like others. But its 850 low which was normal up until about 66 hours, suddenly gets lost and left back in southern Mississipp, while the surface low is over Jacksonville. It loses its lift here, yet makes no sense but thats why I think it failed to keep lift for western SC and NC. Its been doing this several runs. The comma head moisture is a typical great look, just nothing much coming out of it, or as much as you'd expect.

[tnweathernut]

GFS looks cold after the storm...............

I think people on the north side of this thing need to relax. All this talk about the "sky falling" is outrageous. Could most of the precip stay south? Sure, but it's not likely. It's already been a pretty good winter for a lot on this board, with the exception of a few. We are still 3 days out.

Let's be happy for whoever gets the snow. This is the southeast board, let's act like it. As for the northern extent.......................if it doesn't come north and west with the shield I will eat my car and send a personal invite to all on this board to watch.

[Shawn]

are you sure shawn? other posters seemed to indicate we'd see more snow based on this run with 850s further south.

yeah im sure.. these #s are in 6 hr intervals.. so i dont know when it goes from snow/sleet/freezing rain.. but by 18z Monday it should be freezing rain from my eye.

[Lookout]

and once again.. CAE gets owned with ice after a little snow to start. i want this system to go away. seriously.

You need to go back to the last page, at the bottom, and read my post because columbia does well in the snow department before a changeover. There should be a period of sleet before going over to freezing rain due to very cold boundary layer conditions. I don't see this being a big crippling icestorm for columbia with respect to freezing rain. It looks about 50% snow 25% sleet and 25% freezing rain to me.

[Gastonwxman]

exactly, and i just found out why the GFS diminishes our precip by its arrival here. Its 5H is great, and like others. But its 850 low which was normal up until about 66 hours, suddenly gets lost and left back in southern Mississipp, while the surface low is over Jacksonville. It loses its lift here, yet makes no sense but thats why I think it failed to keep lift for western SC and NC. Its been doing this several runs. The comma head moisture is a typical great look, just nothing much coming out of it, or as much as you'd expect.

So that explains it, huh? I didn't even think about how the 850 low was being handled and our lift. Nice catch there Robert.

[Shawn]

You need to go back to the last page, at the bottom, and read my post because columbia does well in the snow department before a changeover. There should be a period of sleet before going over to freezing rain. I don't see this being a big crippling icestorm for columbia with respect to freezing rain. It looks about 50% snow 25% sleet and 25% freezing rain to me.

I really hope so man, I can take the ice as long as it's on top of a good bit of snow. I just look at numbers and bufkit. I know the GFS may be too warm, but the Euro came last night with a good bit of ice also.. and the nam this morning.. I'll go re-read it right now!

[HWY316wx]

exactly, and i just found out why the GFS diminishes our precip by its arrival here. Its 5H is great, and like others. But its 850 low which was normal up until about 66 hours, suddenly gets lost and left back in southern Mississipp, while the surface low is over Jacksonville. It loses its lift here, yet makes no sense but thats why I think it failed to keep lift for western SC and NC. Its been doing this several runs. The comma head moisture is a typical great look, just nothing much coming out of it, or as much as you'd expect.

Thank you for pointing this out. I saw that huge ball there right at the LA / MS coast and thought... ok, here comes the look of the NAM and then poof... it was gone with almost a positive tilt look to the moisture at 72.