strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Riding this train, It is hard not to look at the qfp outputs for every model run. But your guidance over the past 6-7 years of the overall look or model pattern makes me feel safe. *meeting all morning so only now getting to fully look at the 06 and NAM 12 data* damn work lol!! Looks to me the 74 and 85 corridor is going to be the sweet spot when its over. The trends from 00z and 12z yesterday and now 12z today on all models, are great. Not going by the off runs, just the main ones, and we continue to look better and better. Its a classic throwback from the 80's. Don't go by qpf charts exactly, but trends overall. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bufkit gives KCLT 5.8" through hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Has me at 8". I'll take it but it has me at 15" at 6z run. Has me right at 10". Can't remember what 6Z showed for me and don't have time go back. Have a meeting in an hour where I have to talk about something other than the weather. I have never tracked a storm that had us consistantly all show a big hit for us( 6" 10" 12" 15", 6" with ice....). I know the NAM can be bad at this range, but it has a great deal of agreement fom other modes so far. This run shows some mixing concerns (esp. for me just S. of I-20), but I'm hoping the flow from the NE will keep temps down. Matthew mentioned this morning that the cold air should wedge in as far back as AL. My new generator and I are stoked and ready!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just south of the border, in the GSP area, SREF has an 85% chance of .50 or more in 6 hours at hour 84. I haven't seen the 12z but the 9z is a major Southeast winter storm, very large. It also does the warming aloft, like most winter storms have, but by then a lot of folks have had a lot of snow, and the further south you go near 20, the more mix and ice. Also, strong damming for the lee of the Apps into western SC. This reminds me of the best 80's winter storms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm going to save this when we get slammed on Monday. Still like the NAM and the GFS Should be as little better at 12z. We just need the pattern to stay the same and the atmosphere will do the rest. I won't get worried until the system is in LA and showing substantially less QPF then advertised. I know man. You have to realize that I am an "old salt" who has seen what "it used to be like". I did give forewarning that I would have my "one episode" of aggravation during the stretch of these model runs. Thanks though for being the calm voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Has me right at 10". Can't remember what 6Z showed for me and don't have time go back. Have a meeting in an hour where I have to talk about something other than the weather. I have never tracked a storm that had us consistantly all show a big hit for us( 6" 10" 12" 15", 6" with ice....). I know the NAM can be bad at this range, but it has a great deal of agreement fom other modes so far. This run shows some mixing concerns (esp. for me just S. of I-20), but I'm hoping the flow from the NE will keep temps down. Matthew mentioned this morning that the cold air should wedge in as far back as AL. My new generator and I are stoked and ready!! I know exactly where Tyrone is as I used to live there about 8 years ago so I think you are still sitting in a good spot. Right now it's looking like the bulk of your precip would be snow so hopefully that will hold as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 KGSP off 12Z nam Bufkit gives KCLT 5.8" through hour 84. So yes, the 12Z nam shows lighter amounts N up to HKY in WNC with around 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I like where I am now as depicted by the NAM but I certainly don't want this thing to shift any farther south. Like Dawson said, I'll take my 6 to 8 and be absolutely ecstatic but as has been stated by Robert, the QPF's don't mean a whole heck of a lot at this point of the game. I still think Mr. Bob and KCHA will be in a great spot and south of I20 probably needs to get ready for more SNOW than ice imo. Good luck to all the SE peeps even though I know we all won't cash in.....there looks to be more opportunities in the "pipeline". LOL....thanks for the jinx...I agree with Robert...I feel the NAM is too far south with accumulations...aside from mixing issues, I do think the sweet spot runs along the TN border from MS through the N GA Mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hi everyone. I have been lurking around for several months because I thought my request to join had vaporized into thin air. Much to my surprise today I found out that I could actually log in. Lol so here I am. I have really enjoyed reading the threads on our different storms and appreciate all the maps, graphs and great discussions I have found here. My bookmark page is insane with weather stuff. I will remain in lurking mod since I do not speak weather very well but I do enjoy reading about it. I have one question that I do not think has been asked yet and if it has I am sorry in advance. I notice that there is precip coming from the north after this big storm rolls through. Will this give even more winter weather to the SE? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. Every gulf storm I've ever followed with a strong trough in Texas like this, even very weak ones, went futher north than shown. I won't be surprised to see it edge north in future runs. I have to say that the more years that I look at and pick apart specific model runs and scenarios, the more I'm impressed with the HPC guidance. They usually put out probablilities and the track of low pressures that are consistently at least 100 miles further north than ANY model is showing prior to a storm. We all say "What are they thinking?" when, in fact, their MOS guidance and historical climatology usually comes to fruition and is right on the money. I'm riding this one out with you Robert because you have been rock solid in analyzing our storm. The weenies and cliff divers should take note from the experts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hi everyone. I have been lurking around for several months because I thought my request to join had vaporized into thin air. Much to my surprise today I found out that I could actually logging. Lol so here I am. I have really enjoyed reading the threads on our different storms and appreciate all the maps, graphs and great discussions I have found here. My bookmark page is insane with weather stuff. I will remain in lurking mod since I do not speak weather very well but I do enjoy reading about it. I have one question that I do not think has been asked yet and if it has I am sorry in advance. I notice that there is precip coming from the north after this big storm rolls through. Will this give even more winter weather to the SE? Thanks Welcome! That precip will likely stay north of GA and affect TN/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM gives the southern foothills regions ( of WNC) over .5. KFQD gets .53. ending at 84hrs In the last storm I had .41 and obtained 5 solid inches of snow.. Really wondering what these ratios are going to look like., Might beef up a lot of snow for folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My thoughts on the upcoming storm, and my first call map http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/some-light-snow-possible-this-evening-southeast-winter-storm-likely-sun-tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL....thanks for the jinx...I agree with Robert...I feel the NAM is too far south with accumulations...aside from mixing issues, I do think the sweet spot runs along the TN border from MS through the N GA Mountains... I tend to think it's going to be a bit further south than that personally. Looking closely at the gfs soundings (and not counting for ratios), atlanta to athens is in about as good of a place as any as well imo. By the time the warm nose arrives, the vast vast majority of the precip is over on both models. Both models also paint higher liquid totals in the same general area...Nam and gfs both agree that an area essentially bounded by rome to toccoa and atlanta to augusta are ground zero. Yeah I said augusta, the gfs has been potentially picking up on the dynamical cooling possibilities with such heavy rates and strong dynamics and delaying the mid level warm nose to some degree. Plus I'm somewhat concerned the axis of heavy precip from west to east the gfs is painting might cut back on amounts further north. But I'm trying to find a reason why this area won't experience extreme totals and it's hard for me to find many. (The biggest threat I see are both models are too wet and the ggem and euro's lower amounts are right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is what I'm expecting...hopefully we will get more IP than ZR...but it looks nasty..lol It has been a long time since I've seen chances this far south in Ga. Folks down below Macon might be seeing frozen. Amazing what big time blocking can pull out of the hat. Since the elements involved aren't being sampled well yet, I'd be suprised with this cold air we are working with, if there will be as much zrain as it seems now. I think it will be mix in lots of areas afraid of zrain at the moment. Hoping that is you too. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks I had been looking at some of the snow models and I was a little confused about totals after the event. It may just be that what we do get is not going to go any where fast. Those snow models try to take into account how fast the snow may melt after it has accumulated so that is likely what you are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But I'm trying to find a reason why this area won't experience extreme totals and it's hard for me to find many. (The biggest threat I see are both models are too wet and the ggem and euro's lower amounts are right) This is a classic example of all of us trying to figure out what will go wrong since so many parameters are lined up. I can't tell you how excited I am about the surface temps and this starting in the evening. Unless something really throws up for a loop, this may be one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3monkeymom Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hope the temp profiles are better for points S of 1-20 than I saw on the NAM. I'm getting really concerned about ice now. I would rather be stuck in a 33-degree rain for the duration than deal with any ZR. NAM has us under 1-2 inches of snow by Monday AM, but I can't help wondering how much ice is underneath that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hour 42: Central and southern TX getting in on some moderate precip. Already looks wetter than 12z NAM and further north somewhat by this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have to say that the more years that I look at and pick apart specific model runs and scenarios, the more I'm impressed with the HPC guidance. They usually put out probablilities and the track of low pressures that are consistently at least 100 miles further north than ANY model is showing prior to a storm. We all say "What are they thinking?" when, in fact, their MOS guidance and historical climatology usually comes to fruition and is right on the money. I'm riding this one out with you Robert because you have been rock solid in analyzing our storm. The weenies and cliff divers should take note from the experts! Yeah its always tricky with the exact track unless you have a real good cluster just 24 hours or so out, even then I've seen jogs north. Depends on the timeing of the pulling out ne system and how far north the trough is in Texas , but since most models agree there will be pretty sharp cutoff to the north, I don't think this will get a whole lot further north, especially with the cold pressing so unusually far south, but a little further north is likely compared to the NAM anyway. The GFS is out ro 48 and hasa 1004 low in southern Texas with precip expandig into southern Ark and across the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hour 42: Central and southern TX getting in on some moderate precip. Already looks wetter than 12z NAM and further north somewhat by this time frame. Yep...at 48 hours GFS has QPF in Oklahoma. NAM was not even close to that far north with QPF at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS @51 is colder and looks stronger in east TX right now about to slam into LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep...at 48 hours GFS has QPF in Oklahoma. NAM was not even close to that far north with QPF at 12z Sunday. This isn't surprising. the nam is almost 100% of the time slower than the gfs when it comes to southern stream systems..and hell precip in general. Sometimes the gfs is a little too fast but I think the gfs is probably going to end up being much closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The colder 12Z NAM gives CHS ~1" of snow (it is at 28F with a TD of 25 at 12Z MON) and even gives some ZR at SAV (when it is at 32 Fwith TD of 25)! The key is how far inland the marine low level layer will be able to penetrate. There has been a trend on the models since early yesterday to strengthen the cold/dry wedging coming down from the cold high to the the NW/N. It will be battling the marine layer. The dense low level wedge often wins (often fooling the models) or at least it doesn't normally give up easily. TD's get down to an incredibly low 4 F as of 10AM on SUN at both cities! CHS NWS forecast office has a really toughie with this system as the temp/TD gradient is going to be incredibly tight near the upper GA and lower SC coasts...about as tight as one would ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 54 the vort in eastern Tex is sharp and pretty strong, good gulf inflow across Louisiana and southern Ark and Miss. The cold to the north is pushing in across the Tenn Valley into the Deep south, the zero runs from south of ATL to south of Tup. Theres a few pockets of 1.75 and 2.00" in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This isn't surprising. the nam is almost 100% of the time slower than the gfs when it comes to southern stream systems..and hell precip in general. Sometimes the gfs is a little too fast but I think the gfs is probably going to end up being much closer to reality. Yep. Proven at 54. GFS has it further east already haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Would love a little history on 6+ inch snows for Atlanta. How often... last time... etc. The colder 12Z NAM gives CHS ~1" of snow (it is at 28F with a TD of 25 at 12Z MON) and even gives some ZR at SAV (when it is at 32 Fwith TD of 25)! The key is how far inland the marine low level layer will be able to penetrate. There has been a trend on the models since early yesterday to strengthen the cold/dry wedging coming down from the cold high to the the NW/N. It will be battling the marine layer. The dense low level wedge often wins (often fooling the models) or at least it doesn't normally give up easily. TD's get down to an incredibly low 4 F as of 10AM on SUN at both cities! CHS NWS forecast office has a really toughie with this system as the temp/TD gradient is going to be incredibly tight near the upper GA and lower SC coasts...about as tight as one would ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This looks a tad slower then the 6z run of the GFS at 69 snow is in ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Compared to 6z, 12z GFS at 66 looks a hair weaker and further south with the features and much colder, particularly ahead and north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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