Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The s/w is farther SE compared to previous runs. This will probably flip flop for the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's the 06Z run And here's the new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is through hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think we just need to wait till the actual storm gets on land. With the Christmas storm that made a lot of difference. Probably just the weenie in me but it's killing me that this thing is so suppressed. Seems like 6Z NAM was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Loop is done! lcick on the link in my sig to view the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lookout, that stuff on the ground in central NC is from our clipper I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lookout, that stuff on the ground in central NC is from our clipper I'm sure. Yes, but for simplicity sake i was just clicking total precip and for everyone else this applies to the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's the 48 hour 81 hour image that excludes the nc clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The s/w is farther SE compared to previous runs. This will probably flip flop for the next few runs. I don't think this was a bad run at all. A little slower than 6z and the s/w looked bettern back in the southwest and texas. Seems like the nam held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Loop is done! Has me at 8". I'll take it but it has me at 15" at 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Loop is done! lcick on the link in my sig to view the loop I would be very cautious about those amounts along and south of a Jackson - Montgomery - Macon line. This is the area the HPC pops a mod hatch for sig icing, and that SN-fall map likely is not taking ZR and IP into account. If I lived in that area, I would be preparing for a sig ice storm and possible lose of power for long duration, not a sn-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run is going to destroy georgia. I would love for the nam's slow timing to be right but a word of caution..the nam is often too slow with systems like these. big hit, and seeing its the NAM , I'm impressed. The qpf exact amounts are going to vary run to run, overall, this is the setup we want in the Southeast. Late in the storm though northern GA and most of SC probably will mix over to someting other than snow, unless the Euro was right on its temps, but at some point somewhere the freezing line works northward. Doesnt' matter much though since it begins so cold, the snow will be the predominant type for northern GA and maybe including northern ATL suburbs to just north of Columbia. There's time later for that line, for now I"d like to get the track honed and stabilized. Its great to see the southern feature and teh vort so strong coming into Alabama and southern Tennessee, with excellent divergence over the Carolinas. The biggest questions may still be exactly how far north does the shield get, and I believe it can swing further north than shown here , by a few miles, but most models are agreeing closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This almost looks like there's a deform zone developing over the western part of the state: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Foothills, what happens in NC really isn't captured yet in the NAM's 84hr range I'm guessing? Still need to see another few runs before we even get to the precip potential to be shown (for NC) even out on the far end of the NAM's range. Do I have this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM has a wetbulb for me around 23º by hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I would be very cautious about those amounts along and south of a Jackson - Montgomery - Macon line. This is the area the HPC pops a mod hatch for sig icing, and that SN-fall map likely is not taking ZR and IP into account. If I lived in that area, I would be preparing for a sig ice storm and possible lose of power for long duration, not a sn-storm. This is what I'm expecting...hopefully we will get more IP than ZR...but it looks nasty..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't know ... I wouldn't expect more than another tenth or two for the western half ......maybe more out your way. There is no 500 feature left at 84, though. Hopefully, like Christmas, it will hang on longer with each model run. Foothills, what happens in NC really isn't captured yet in the NAM's 84hr range I'm guessing? Still need to see another few runs before we even get to the precip potential to be shown (for NC) even out on the far end of the NAM's range. Do I have this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 big hit, and seeing its the NAM , I'm impressed. The qpf exact amounts are going to vary run to run, overall, this is the setup we want in the Southeast. Late in the storm though northern GA and most of SC probably will mix over to someting other than snow, unless the Euro was right on its temps, but at some point somewhere the freezing line works northward. Doesnt' matter much though since it begins so cold, the snow will be the predominant type for northern GA and maybe including northern ATL suburbs to just north of Columbia. There's time later for that line, for now I"d like to get the track honed and stabilized. Its great to see the southern feature and teh vort so strong coming into Alabama and southern Tennessee, with excellent divergence over the Carolinas. The biggest questions may still be exactly how far north does the shield get, and I believe it can swing further north than shown here , by a few miles, but most models are agreeing closely. Looks like we may have to accept another dusting to an inch with ice back end. A friggin Jan 88 pattern and we could potentially see another great I-85 to I-74 bust special. When will be torture end Robert? I am happy for everyone, dont get me wrong...we just need a little bit of love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah that does look pretty impressive QueenCity. I would say this looks a good bit slower than previous runs and we might not get snow into Central NC until late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Has me at 8". I'll take it but it has me at 15" at 6z run. Your ratios, especially at first, will make up for it It's going to be pretty cold at the surface for a georgia snowstorm. The nam/gfs are in good agreement showing temps generally around 24 or 25. Needless to say, that isn't something we are used to as temps are normally around 29 to 33 outside the mountains for snow events. btw, 925 to 950mb temps are as low as -7 to -8c initially! big hit, and seeing its the NAM , I'm impressed. The qpf exact amounts are going to vary run to run, overall, this is the setup we want in the Southeast. Late in the storm though northern GA and most of SC probably will mix over to someting other than snow, unless the Euro was right on its temps, but at some point somewhere the freezing line works northward. Doesnt' matter much though since it begins so cold, the snow will be the predominant type for northern GA and maybe including northern ATL suburbs to just north of Columbia. There's time later for that line, for now I"d like to get the track honed and stabilized. Its great to see the southern feature and teh vort so strong coming into Alabama and southern Tennessee, with excellent divergence over the Carolinas. The biggest questions may still be exactly how far north does the shield get, and I believe it can swing further north than shown here , by a few miles, but most models are agreeing closely. Actually, if the nam is to be believed, the freezing rain aspect is almost irrelevant for north ga. Very little actually falls after the warm nose moves in and by far the vast majority of it is snow. For example, at hour 78, 850mb 0c runs along a rome to athens to augusta line. But only a few hundreths of an inch falls after that period. Quite simply the nam and gfs show one of the largest snows the state has seen in...well the history buffs will have to clue me in because it's been a hell of a long time. I'm of the belief at the moment there is a chance someone sees a foot but the only thing that keeps me from pulling the trigger on that is the ggem and euro coming in drier. We'll see what they show this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like we may have to accept another dusting to an inch with ice back end. A friggin Jan 88 pattern and we could potentially see another great I-85 to I-74 bust special. When will be torture end Robert? I am happy for everyone, dont get me wrong...we just need a little bit of love! I'm going to save this when we get slammed on Monday. Still like the NAM and the GFS Should be as little better at 12z. We just need the pattern to stay the same and the atmosphere will do the rest. I won't get worried until the system is in LA and showing substantially less QPF then advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I like where I am now as depicted by the NAM but I certainly don't want this thing to shift any farther south. Like Dawson said, I'll take my 6 to 8 and be absolutely ecstatic but as has been stated by Robert, the QPF's don't mean a whole heck of a lot at this point of the game. I still think Mr. Bob and KCHA will be in a great spot and south of I20 probably needs to get ready for more SNOW than ice imo. Good luck to all the SE peeps even though I know we all won't cash in.....there looks to be more opportunities in the "pipeline". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 big hit, and seeing its the NAM , I'm impressed. The qpf exact amounts are going to vary run to run, overall, this is the setup we want in the Southeast. Late in the storm though northern GA and most of SC probably will mix over to someting other than snow, unless the Euro was right on its temps, but at some point somewhere the freezing line works northward. Doesnt' matter much though since it begins so cold, the snow will be the predominant type for northern GA and maybe including northern ATL suburbs to just north of Columbia. There's time later for that line, for now I"d like to get the track honed and stabilized. Its great to see the southern feature and teh vort so strong coming into Alabama and southern Tennessee, with excellent divergence over the Carolinas. The biggest questions may still be exactly how far north does the shield get, and I believe it can swing further north than shown here , by a few miles, but most models are agreeing closely. Robert, I honestly think if you moved the significant precip further north by 50-100 miles it might be closer to reality. Time and time again these types of situations verify the northern extent of the heavier precip further north, sometimes much further north. The most recent example of this is the snow that came through Wednesday and into Wed. night. TRI ended up with between 2.5 and 3 inches of snow from what was depicted as extremely light precip from just 24 hours out!! The truth is, this thing is going negative tilt in eastern TX, and then still remaining pretty strong (even though it's weakening) as it lifts north and east - it should produce more than shown for the TN valley. I would honestly be more surprised if there isn't a widespread 4-6 event for many areas in TN than the amounts currently shown. Granted, I am just a 25+ year weather hobbyist, but I have gotten burned SO many times on systems from 3-4 days out that put me in the sweet spot, only to have the entire precip shield shift 100 miles or more in the last 72 hours. I guess time will tell, but I have felt like a good chunk of TN is in a great spot ever since this thing started showing up and have not even lost one second of sleep with the models showing suppression. BTW - it really looks like you have a historic storm about to knock on your door! Good luck and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The SREF is extremely bullish on snow in NC...I mean, extremely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like we may have to accept another dusting to an inch with ice back end. A friggin Jan 88 pattern and we could potentially see another great I-85 to I-74 bust special. When will be torture end Robert? I am happy for everyone, dont get me wrong...we just need a little bit of love! Looks to me the 74 and 85 corridor is going to be the sweet spot when its over. The trends from 00z and 12z yesterday and now 12z today on all models, are great. Not going by the off runs, just the main ones, and we continue to look better and better. Its a classic throwback from the 80's. Don't go by qpf charts exactly, but trends overall. I'm going to save this when we get slammed on Monday. Still like the NAM and the GFS Should be as little better at 12z. We just need the pattern to stay the same and the atmosphere will do the rest. I won't get worried until the system is in LA and showing substantially less QPF then advertised. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just south of the border, in the GSP area, SREF has an 85% chance of .50 or more in 6 hours at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Robert, I honestly think if you moved the significant precip further north by 50-100 miles it might be closer to reality. Time and time again these types of situations verify the northern extent of the heavier precip further north, sometimes much further north. The most recent example of this is the snow that came through Wednesday and into Wed. night. TRI ended up with between 2.5 and 3 inches of snow from what was depicted as extremely light precip from just 24 hours out!! The truth is, this thing is going negative tilt in eastern TX, and then still remaining pretty strong (even though it's weakening) as it lifts north and east - it should produce more than shown for the TN valley. I would honestly be more surprised if there isn't a widespread 4-6 event for many areas in TN than the amounts currently shown. Granted, I am just a 25+ year weather hobbyist, but I have gotten burned SO many times on systems from 3-4 days out that put me in the sweet spot, only to have the entire precip shield shift 100 miles or more in the last 72 hours. I guess time will tell, but I have felt like a good chunk of TN is in a great spot ever since this thing started showing up and have not even lost one second of sleep with the models showing suppression. BTW - it really looks like you have a historic storm about to knock on your door! Good luck and enjoy. I agree. Every gulf storm I've ever followed with a strong trough in Texas like this, even very weak ones, went futher north than shown. I won't be surprised to see it edge north in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Your ratios, especially at first, will make up for it It's going to be pretty cold at the surface for a georgia snowstorm. The nam/gfs are in good agreement showing temps generally around 24 or 25. Needless to say, that isn't something we are used to as temps are normally around 29 to 33 outside the mountains for snow events. btw, 925 to 950mb temps are as low as -7 to -8c initially! Actually, if the nam is to be believed, the freezing rain aspect is almost irrelevant for north ga. Very little actually falls after the warm nose moves in and by far the vast majority of it is snow. For example, at hour 78, 850mb 0c runs along a rome to athens to augusta line. But only a few hundreths of an inch falls after that period. Quite simply the nam and gfs show one of the largest snows the state has seen in...well the history buffs will have to clue me in because it's been a hell of a long time. I'm of the belief at the moment there is a chance someone sees a foot but the only thing that keeps me from pulling the trigger on that is the ggem and euro coming in drier. We'll see what they show this morning. That's the best part about the whole thing for me because my last two snowfalls my temp never hit freezing so you hear water dripping thru the gutters the whole time it snows. BTW...getting teaser flurries now in Dahlonega. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like we may have to accept another dusting to an inch with ice back end. A friggin Jan 88 pattern and we could potentially see another great I-85 to I-74 bust special. When will be torture end Robert? I am happy for everyone, dont get me wrong...we just need a little bit of love! The NAM hardly shows a dusting to an inch for our area. BTW, looking at the 09Z SREF plumes for the CLT area over three quarters of those members give a 4+ inch snowfall before a mix or changeover to sleet occurs or the forecast period ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just south of the border, in the GSP area, SREF has an 85% chance of .50 or more in 6 hours at hour 84. I haven't looked yet but I'm wondering what the possibilities of thundersnow are right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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