SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Matthew East (should I just call him Matt? Everybody knows him? Anyway) gave some insight on his blog video about how he could see the rationale comparing this system to the 1988 system where we got a foot. He said that the 88 system was not a strong low, just good dynamics with cold air in place over an extended period of time. That's what this is set up to do. If I'm not mistaken, the Christmas storm started to go bonkers as it came on land. I wonder what's going to happen once this one does. How long before it's ashore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmmm. S/w doesn't look stronger any more at 54 hours. Yeah looks about the same as 6z, Just a hair north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Surface features are south, as is precip shield. I'm thinking that big ocean low off Maine is the problem. Yeah looks about the same as 6z, Just a hair north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z NAM show northern LA and central MS to have 12" of snow about 7pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah it looks to be about equal in strength and a smidge to the North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 By 60 is just south of LA while still putting down a great deal of precipitation at 1004mb. Still plenty cold out ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 At hr 66 NAM has nice OMEGA rocketing into N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Surface features are south, as is precip shield. I'm thinking that big ocean low off Maine is the problem. It all has to do with the dynamics of the southern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SIGNIFICANTLY more suppressed. NADA for almost all of Arkansas and the northern half of Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not a great run for N/Central NC but looks awesome for foks in the more southern areas. Still plenty of time and many runs to go before we sleep though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmmm. S/w doesn't look stronger any more at 54 hours. No, but it looks great at 60 hrs. Very impressive! We go from positive tilt, to neutral, to negative tilt all in about 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z NAM show northern LA and central MS to have 12" of snow about 7pm sunday That is likely incorrect verbatim looking at thickness profiles and 850 temps in that area. I am not sure what algorithm Allan uses on his maps, but if it is a sn-flag and fixed 10:1, most of what you are seeing there is ZR and IP, mainly ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep...that map is likely what you said it was. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking like the farther north solution of the 6z NAM may have been the hiccup afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at 66 it has the strong remants of the vort in west central Miss. but didnt' allow the precip to get under its best divergence yet and to the north. This is actually typical, and I have to say I like the way its stronger with the southern stream now, the northern precip shield is almost always further north than shown, and the top edge will fan out east to west with the good confluence. I think it should be around central Ark to southern half of tenn by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run is still a home run for north AL/GA and into SC and western TN based on what I'm seeing thru 72hr. This run is slower though on the timing from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam coming back more in line with the other guidance it would appear..which is fine by me I was looking closely at the soundings for georgia this morning from the 06z guidance, and let's just say that there is a good chance someone gets a foot. btw, for giggles sake..the gfs is still showing 6 inches of snow on the ground here all the way through hour 192. I don't have any experience with melting rates with ground temps like this and with the cold we are dealing with afterwards but I think I'm going to love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 700RH shield is just slightly south of it's 66 hour position at hour 60 on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The precip is further south in the new NAM compared to 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yikes -- 850 0C line plunges much farther south into Miss./Alabama at 66, almost to Hattiesburg!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, the features are quite close to the 6z run, but the precip shield looks markedly further south. at 66 it has the strong remants of the vort in west central Miss. but didnt' allow the precip to get under its best divergence yet and to the north. This is actually typical, and I have to say I like the way its stronger with the southern stream now, the northern precip shield is almost always further north than shown, and the top edge will fan out east to west with the good confluence. I think it should be around central Ark to southern half of tenn by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 StormVista snowfall maps pretty much paint all of north GA with 4-8" with a higher stripe thru Atlanta. It shows none of that show in south MS/AL that is showing up on Alans snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 700RH shield is just slightly south of it's 66 hour position at hour 60 on the 12z It's all in the strength of the wave. If this trends stronger, we'll be fine. BTW, just saw TWC and is forecasting a low of 5 on Thursday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's starting further south but I'm not sure it's going to stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 72 moisture is now reaching parts of northern AL and GA with the low sitting just south of the Gulf Coast. Let's see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 To me that looks like freezing rain sounding but after being wrong last night I'm not sure. Anyone? EDIT: Where did it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run is going to destroy georgia. I would love for the nam's slow timing to be right but a word of caution..the nam is often too slow with systems like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ugly QPF run for Mr. Bob -- 6z at 78 hours -- almost .75 ..... 12z at 72 -- less than .25. Sure it's a blip, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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