strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This might have been posted, But I wanted to bold and underline so stuff. GSP AFD LR LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 255 AM FRI...THE WINTER STORM SCENARIO CONTINUES TO SEEM VERY LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LATEST GFS HAS INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH THE WV UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST...AND IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE OTHER OP MODELS WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCING MILLER/A IDEA LATE SUN INTO TUE. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS LESS THAN A 2 DM SPREAD IN THE UPPER S/W AND A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TX COAST SUN AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUED CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW CENTER PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD NRN FL THROUGH MON. THE AIRMASS AWAITING THE SRN STREAM LOW SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD AS GOOD NW FLOW ALIGNED WITHIN A SFC HIGH ELONGATED SHARPLY OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST PERSISTS LATE SUN AND AGEO WEDGES INTO MON. MID LEVEL PRECIP ONSET IS WELL AGREED UPON...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFT 00Z. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FEW HOURS WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING UP SFC LAYER AND ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO EVAPO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE 06Z. THE LATEST HPC WWD GRAPHICS INDICATE WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERING CONTINUITY AND THE FAVORED PROG OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE 295K ISENTROPIC LAYER...ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOWS STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA AND SATURATED CPD/S DEVELOPING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE SW CWFA BEFORE 12Z. THIS ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND IT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS FAR AS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW BANDS TRAVERSING THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...ANOTHER INDICATOR OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...SO THE IDEA THAT HEAVY SNOW RATES REACHING WARNING LEVELS EARLY MON AND INTO THE THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...EVEN CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS STILL OVER 3 DAYS AWAY. A QUICK LOOK AT THE ANALOGS SHOWS THAT BASED ON A STATISTICAL FIT TO THE H3/H5 PATTERN...THE JAN 1988 SNOW EVENT IS THE TOP ANALOG AND THAT STORM ACCUMULATED OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE SNOWFALL COULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AS ISEN OMEGA REMAINS STRONG AND SATURATED WITH GOOD ATL MOIST FLUX ON THE NORTH AND EVEN BACKSIDE OF THE NE/WARD MOVING SFC LOW. ADDITIONALLY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW WILL BE QUICK TO SETUP AFTER THE SYNOPTIC EVENT. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES THE SNOW COULD FALL CONTINUOUSLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS INTO THU. MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG CA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WED AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SE REGION THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MAX AND MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && New Raleigh and GSP AFD's, GSP said major changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Storm is still here! Just a quick check and looks like things are still on track. Qpf looks fine for n ga. Let's see if the euro keeps or loses the storm at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Please keep the banter and cross talk in the Banter thread. K'Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Now all we need for us eastern NC folks is for the cold to override the warm nose. Morning folks,,, been out yesterday & today, and "catching up".... Guess if I want oysters, I'd better get them today... KLIM Local AFD Valid 701 am EST Friday Jan 7 2011 Synopsis... a strong cold front will move across the area later today. Cold...blustery and dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. A significant winter storm is looking more like a possibility Monday and early Tuesday followed by cold and dry conditions once again. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 2:50 am Friday...a powerful upper level low over the Great Lakes controls the weather over the eastern half of the nation. Cyclonic flow is directing a series of strong upper disturbances from the upper plains across the Carolinas. One disturbance is pushing across the area now and will be offshore by sunrise...leaving partly cloudy skies this morning. Clouds will increase through the afternoon as the the next much-stronger disturbance dives into the area tonight. The low and middle level flow should remain west to northwest through the event...leaving Gulf and Atlantic moisture out of the picture entirely. Precipitable water should only rise to around half an inch. What this system lacks in moisture it will make up for with very strong dynamics aloft. A zone of enhanced mesoscale-scale lift should develop in the NC/Tennessee mountains this afternoon and will streak east this evening...likely just scraping by the northern edge of our forecast area before midnight. Tight latitudinal thermal gradients should keep precipitation all rain across our forecast area...but you won't have to move too far north into North Carolina to see a transition to snow... and accumulating snow at that. We are expecting rain to begin across the Bennettsville-Dillon-Lumberton area around sunset...streaking across southeast North Carolina and then ending around midnight. Rain chances are not even in the forecast south of Marion and Myrtle Beach with the 700/850 mb layers expected to remain too dry. The surface low is expected to track from upstate South Carolina around sunset across Charlotte...Fayetteville...and then offshore around Cape Lookout by midnight. South of this low a jet of strong winds will bring relatively warm air into the area with temperatures likely not falling too much after sunset. Once the surface low pushes offshore and advection turns strongly cold...temperatures will plunge as northwest winds bring colder air in from the west and northwest. During the strongest period of winds this evening gusts could reach 35 miles per hour near the beaches. Highs today should range from around 50 across southeast North Carolina... to as high as the middle 50s in the Georgetown and Kingstree vicinity. Lows tonight should range from 30-35...warmest at the NC beaches. && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 2:50 am Friday...potent northwest flow will continue at least through Saturday at the middle levels with one last vorticity moving across Saturday afternoon albeit displaced a bit to the north. With the placement of this feature any sprinkles or virga should be well to the north. Surface high pressure moves in for Sunday. Mav continues to advertise very low mins for Sunday with the met somewhat warmer. Via the packing of the isobars...I cant see the boundary layer fully decoupling so I opted for the warmer met numbers. Other periods are in good agreement. Also expect some gusty conditions Saturday via deep mixing/momentum Transfer. && Long term /Monday through Thursday/... as of 2:50 am Friday...main focus remains on the southern stream system to affect the area late Sunday through early Tuesday. The 0000 UTC GFS remains consistent with its solution and the NAM...now within the time domain has generally the same idea...at least through 1200 UTC Monday. Miller A low pressure will slowly move across the northern Gulf and off of the South Carolina coast by early Tuesday morning. Thermal profiles are to say the least...ominous for a significant winter storm for all areas. Isentropic lift in the 285-295k level begins in force by Monday morning. With deep Omega in the dendritic growth zone...several hours of snow are likely. A warm nose in the 925-850mb layer advects in from about 1500 UTC Onward...however surface temperatures remain below freezing inland. This could lead to a few hours of sleet and or freezing rain. Terrestrial temperatures should be well conditioned with a cold morning Sunday while we remain just a couple of weeks away from the winter solstice. The disclaimer to all of this of course continues to be that the system remains offshore of California and has yet to enter the upper air network. However model consensus at this point cannot be ignored. For the forecast...I have trended p-type from all snow to a mix to all rain by the evening Monday. Will include significant wording in the severe weather potential statement. The remainder of the extended remains relatively unchanged...cold with a drying trend. && current Obs: 33.5 °F ClearWindchill:29 °F Humidity:100%Dew Point: 34 °F Wind: 6.2 mph from the WNW window.wind_animate['CONDBOXWIND']=new WindRotate("condboxArrowDiv",14,284); Wind Gust:10.4 mph Pressure:29.60 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is how I feel about the 6z NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is how I feel about the 6z NAM..... I can't see, I can't see. I was reading another post in another area of the forum where they were discussing how it appears some of the models are now amplifying the system. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm starting to thing it's going to be difficult if not impossible to avoid mixing issues in E. Central/Eastern NC with this one. The first system weakens as it begins to spread precip into the area. We hope it will be energized by the second system. But if that occurs, it seems likely that it will cause enough warming aloft to allow for a change to sleet or even some freezing rain. Is it possible for the second system to phase in with the first one in such a way that these zones can remain all snow? I wouldn't worry if it was just the one system, but with this other one coming in, that throws a lot of doubt in about a purely snow event. From everything I am seeing this morning, yes, we are going to have some serious p-type issues to contend with, which could be made even worse by meager QPF amounts, on the order of <0.5". The double barrel idea of a piece of energy working through E TN, while the primary comes up the coast is starting to gain some traction and that would yield waa for us. The strength of this secondary feature is going to go along way in determining how much we warm, a weaker, or almost non-existent impulse through the TN Valley would be a best case scenario. If the 850 takes that track, forget about it, ZR and IP at best. 0z ECMWF is trending in this direction, although it does pop a 140dm closed 850 off NE NC at 120hrs, and deepens it off the VA Capes moving NE. This indicates the model is seeing something traversing the state in the mid-levels, but still struggling with where to place the enhancement in a broad and open area aloft prior to that. As far as the phasing is concerned, both of these parcels are still in data sparse areas, so who knows, maybe like the Christmas storm where a piece of northern stream energy was missed at this range, there could be something there not shown atm which would give us a more favorable solution. The gap between the dampening southern energy and northern stream indicates not enough enhancement would take place to benefit central and eastern NC, however, any closing of that gap, i.e. slower southern and-or faster northern, would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is how I feel about the 6z NAM..... At 84 (yea I know its a long way out) WNC basically gets buried in a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 84 (yea I know its a long way out) WNC basically gets buried in a foot of snow. And at that point we are only half way thru the event, As the nam ends at 84. Would be another 12 hours of snow after that. I just hope to see the nam continue this run at 12z. Although its hard to see the 12z coming in any better after the 6z set the bar so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 WRAL's I-control thing shows a classic widremann skip. LOL (uses canadian model) http://www.wral.com/...r/page/8782726/ Take that to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From everything I am seeing this morning, yes, we are going to have some serious p-type issues to contend with, which could be made even worse by meager QPF amounts, on the order of <0.5". The double barrel idea of a piece of energy working through E TN, while the primary comes up the coast is starting to gain some traction and that would yield waa for us. The strength of this secondary feature is going to go along way in determining how much we warm, a weaker, or almost non-existent impulse through the TN Valley would be a best case scenario. If the 850 takes that track, forget about it, ZR and IP at best. 0z ECMWF is trending in this direction, although it does pop a 140dm closed 850 off NE NC at 120hrs, and deepens it off the VA Capes moving NE. This indicates the model is seeing something traversing the state in the mid-levels, but still struggling with where to place the enhancement in a broad and open area aloft prior to that. As far as the phasing is concerned, both of these parcels are still in data sparse areas, so who knows, maybe like the Christmas storm where a piece of northern stream energy was missed at this range, there could be something there not shown atm which would give us a more favorable solution. The gap between the dampening southern energy and northern stream indicates not enough enhancement would take place to benefit central and eastern NC, however, any closing of that gap, i.e. slower southern and-or faster northern, would help. Thanks man. I was hoping I was not seeing things correctly, but it sounds like unfortunately I was. I also thing that second piece needs to come farther south as well. Still plenty of time for us though. Not liking the trends at this point however. Thanks for the good comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great discussion from gsp.... I think folks in NC might want to check out the latest QPF from the 06z nam It looks more reasonable keeping the 5H together into the lower Miss. Valley before allowing it to become sheared out somewhat, and then tilting east to west on the nw Comma head, where its really going to snow hard.Atleast synoptically thats been how I envsion this, as the incoming Rockies system connects with the remnants of lift stretching from suthern Mo. across Tenn to NC and offshore, but we're talking later on Monday for that, maybe even Tuesday, by then most of the Carolinas and GA and been clocked, so I still think this could be a multi-punch system. Hopefully those runs weren't a hiccup, I normally don't give much credence to 6z, but since data may just be getting in good, it looked reasonable. Like you said, the Carolinas wan't the ULL to hold together for longer and take the right track to deliver this once in a 20 year potential snowfall to the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 For CAE! Thank god this isn't Ben Tanner. Gotta love the opening they left. 1-5 inches. lmao http://www.wltx.com/news/story.aspx?storyid=116353 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks more reasonable keeping the 5H together into the lower Miss. Valley before allowing it to become sheared out somewhat, and then tilting east to west on the nw Comma head, where its really going to snow hard.Atleast synoptically thats been how I envsion this, as the incoming Rockies system connects with the remnants of lift stretching from suthern Mo. across Tenn to NC and offshore, but we're talking later on Monday for that, maybe even Tuesday, by then most of the Carolinas and GA and been clocked, so I still think this could be a multi-punch system. Hopefully those runs weren't a hiccup, I normally don't give much credence to 6z, but since data may just be getting in good, it looked reasonable. Like you said, the Carolinas wan't the ULL to hold together for longer and take the right track to deliver this once in a 20 year potential snowfall to the Southeast. I know the Euro was a bit of a kick in the nuts but this morning even before seeing the NAM, I was thinking about how almost every met says to trust the pattern and not worry so much about the details a map puts out. I think you hit on the head a few days ago and yesterday afternoon when talking to Wow, we need to see this pattern for what it is, which is a great setup with tons of potential. I'm still very much of the thinking we score big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Updated map from the CPC. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif Edit to add a small portion of their summary: THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH THE STORM TRACKS, WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. TOO MUCH MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THESE AREAS TO DENOTE SPECIFIC WINTRY WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT AN APPRECIABLE HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Updated map from the CPC. http://www.cpc.noaa....ats/threats.gif Oh hell yes, good to at least be on the edge of one of those maps. Also nice to CPC buying into it. This NAM has better data ingestion so it should be a key in how this thing trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know the Euro was a bit of a kick in the nuts but this morning even before seeing the NAM, I was thinking about how almost every met says to trust the pattern and not worry so much about the details a map puts out. I think you hit on the head a few days ago and yesterday afternoon when talking to Wow, we need to see this pattern for what it is, which is a great setup with tons of potential. I'm still very much of the thinking we score big. exactly. I caugt my ownself getting weary last night, but I had a great sleep and ready to take it on LOL. This pattern is a once in 20 year event potential really for the Dallas Mem BHM ATL CLT corridor, and happened a couple times in the 80's, but almost none since. The cold air in place is nice to see. And we' are really heading down there on temps this weekend. HIghs in the upper 20's to low 30s in the piedmont of NC for a couple days. This should help with accumulations nicely, and you have to love the NAM's overall look of not weakening it now so quickly so maybe its catching on to what I thought would happen, but we really have to just see if the 12z continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 exactly. I caugt my ownself getting weary last night, but I had a great sleep and ready to take it on LOL. This pattern is a once in 20 year event potential really for the Dallas Mem BHM ATL CLT corridor, and happened a couple times in the 80's, but almost none since. The cold air in place is nice to see. And we' are really heading down there on temps this weekend. HIghs in the upper 20's to low 30s in the piedmont of NC for a couple days. This should help with accumulations nicely, and you have to love the NAM's overall look of not weakening it now so quickly so maybe its catching on to what I thought would happen, but we really have to just see if the 12z continues. Good Morning Robert! The Euro really got to me last night, but after Checking out the 6z runs of the NAM and GFS, it may be turning the corner. The s/w has trended stronger. The 12z NAM is currently coming out now and looks even stronger than the 6z at 36 hrs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good Morning Robert! The Euro really got to me last night, but after Checking out the 6z runs of the NAM and GFS, it may be turning the corner. The s/w has trended stronger. The 12z NAM is currently coming out now and looks even stronger than the 6z at 36 hrs so far. Stronger at 42 hrs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Keep in mind that the s/w has yet to reach land. This could be one of those times when the s/w will trend stronger as it comes more into "view" of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good Morning Robert! The Euro really got to me last night, but after Checking out the 6z runs of the NAM and GFS, it may be turning the corner. The s/w has trended stronger. The 12z NAM is currently coming out now and looks even stronger than the 6z at 36 hrs so far. You beat me to it Wow.... 12z NAM, at least so far, is stronger. I purposely did not stay up for the late night runs because I feared they would go through their usual hiccup which they did. Now we start to see things really ramp up. I have a really good feeling this is going to turn out to be storm we all remember for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z nam at 36 looks stronger than 42 at 6z. Almost same spot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 48 hours it's much stronger than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM is considerably colder across the region at 48 hours...compared to the same time stamp from the 0Z run. Looks a little wetter across TX as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z Sun 1800 Images are updating. See sig for loop. Not all images are there yet, this was the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Although the setup is totally different, this is quite reminiscent of the Christmas storm in that the Euro was bonkers in its sweet spot (4-6 days), then it backed off, and then in the last 48-60 hours, the models just kept strengthening and strengthening the shortwave. Of course, we don't know if that last part will come to fruition, but it's easier to not cliff dive when it looks like history repeats and history had a happy ending. Keep in mind that the s/w has yet to reach land. This could be one of those times when the s/w will trend stronger as it comes more into "view" of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 48 hours it's much stronger than 6z. It's a bit. Also wetter too. I wonder if it's because it's going negative earlier which resists shearing more than a pos tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I saw a graphic and now I can't get back to it, but...............most ensemble members for the NAM at 6Z were north of the OP, only a couple were south of.......Not a tremendous amount of spread and certainly not enough to hurt our fellow bretheren south of here...............just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like theres going to be a really nasty ice storm down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmmm. S/w doesn't look stronger any more at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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