phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is easily wetter here...and I'd like to print out the 84 hour NAM and do terrible things to it. I think the key thing here is that both the nam and the gfs trended more amplified with the southern stream s/w... if the nam trended but the gfs didn't or went the other way, I think it would have been safe to throw the nam out... now its a whole new ballgame. Folks in NC I think are going to like the way the next 24 hours pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS snow depth product over 6" in all of north GA, a bullseye of 9" near Gainseville. FFC says the GFS shows a nose of warm air moving into Metro Atlanta on Sunday night, although temps will be freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FFC says the GFS shows a nose of warm air moving into Metro Atlanta on Sunday night, although temps will be freezing at the surface. Not any more, the warm nose holds off until 12Z and by that time a lot of the snow has fallen. Plus I think there will be a period of sleet before any ZR falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My snow accumulatoin graphic from the 6z NAM Impressive totals considering there would be more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just a note on last nights Euro for the upstate and NC.....wasn't it around this time on the Christmas storm that it got a little squirrely and then slowly trended back to the actual solution which verified pretty well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like the 12Z qpf run included the clipper as expected tonight. But I'll take those numbers if they come with enough cold to mitigate icing issues. Just don't see much work getting done today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good morning everyone! Looks like over night... The low is about to come onshore in California soon and we'll know more about the strength. Latest NAM snow maps are GREAT to us here in North Georgia! Low weakens as it gets closer... we hope not. Anyway, latest BMX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Okay my NC Folks..... after reading through the disco from last night on the Euro it is understandable to see some frowns but it is a WELL KNOWN fact that the Euro is consistent in going weaker in the 3-4 day range after showing a big storm only to restrengthen it again once we get about 76 hrs out. I don't know why it does this but it did it most recently with the Christmas day storm and has done in repeatedly over the past couple of years. We are now starting to get within the NAM and GFS's "better" range so I'd look for them to start leading the trend. If they continue to show a pregressively weaker and less moist storm for NC today and tonight then I'll start to worry but I believe we will see them begin to pick up on a stronger solution that throws more moisture up our way as the next 2 days unfold. The 6z model runs are aready starting coming in stronger ( in fact so much so that if the NAM was correct the CLT area would be CREAMED whigh much higher precip and amazing ratios) so it will be interesting to see if that continues at 12z. Also our southern wave is just now hitting California so by tonight the models will have begun to sample the storm better. I'd expect a more realistic solution to begin showing up then. Also you have to look at trends over the year, it has consistently been to strengthen and up precip totals as kick off gets closer and I don't see any reason for that not to happen this time around as well. Need proof? You have to look no further than this afternoon's clipper coming in. That was looking at a little non-event and all of a sudden BOOM we are looking at the possibility of 2" and according to GSP there is the potential for some stronger bands to setup and lay day "much more" over the WNC Piedmont. GSP is still pretty gung ho about our chances Sunday-Tuesday and even with their AM update are still referencing 1988 as the best analog. When GSP is excited I'm excited because they are about the best NWS office in the country IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man I wish we werent so far out still. That NAM snow map is beautiful. Ive never seen my area in a bullseye like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just readt the oo - of disco last night. Model jumping the mood swings was very evident in the disco. I agree with phil. Let's roll this next 24 hour period to victory Okay my NC Folks..... after reading through the disco from last night on the Euro it is understandable to see some frowns but it is a WELL KNOWN fact that the Euro is consistent in going weaker in the 3-4 day range after showing a big storm only to restrengthen it again once we get about 76 hrs out. I don't know why it does this but it did it most recently with the Christmas day storm and has done in repeatedly over the past couple of years. We are now starting to get within the NAM and GFS's "better" range so I'd look for them to start leading the trend. If they continue to show a pregressively weaker and less moist storm for NC today and tonight then I'll start to worry but I believe we will see them begin to pick up on a stronger solution that throws more moisture up our way as the next 2 days unfold. The 6z model runs are aready starting coming in stronger ( in fact so much so that if the NAM was correct the CLT area would be CREAMED whigh much higher precip and amazing ratios) so it will be interesting to see if that continues at 12z. Also our southern wave is just now hitting California so by tonight the models will have begun to sample the storm better. I'd expect a more realistic solution to begin showing up then. Also you have to look at trends over the year, it has consistently been to strengthen and up precip totals as kick off gets closer and I don't see any reason for that not to happen this time around as well. Need proof? You have to look no further than this afternoon' s clipper coming in. That was looking at a little non-event and all of a sudden BOOM we are looking at the possibility of 2" and according to GSP there is the potential for some stronger bands to setup and lay day "much more" over the WNC Piedmont. GSP is still pretty gung ho about our chances Sunday-Tuesday and even with their AM update are still referencing 1988 as the best analog. When GSP is excited I'm excited because they are about the best NWS office in the country IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry, with all this incredible model agreement 1-2" is too conservative, period. I would not go really high officially right now, but at this point I will be shocked if at least someone in the Metro does not get 4" and that is conservative. Right. And if we only end up getting 1-2", there would be a heck of a lot of ice to deal with (and would probably be more disruptive than 6" of snow). By the way, GA/AL guys should keep up with ABC 33/40's James Spann. He's not always right, but at least does a good job of explaining things and how he thinks they'll unfold. http://www.alabamawx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just readt the oo - of disco last night. Model jumping the mood swings was very evident in the disco. I agree with phil. Let's roll this next 24 hour period to victory Heck, we're already ahead of the curve in this neck of the woods! As always I'd love to have another blanketing ... but even more, I'd like the folks who got Grinched by the Christmas system to be able to open their doors on Monday morning with the same mix of wonder and joy we felt here the day after Christmas. It felt like the annoying pig in the Geico commercial. weeeeeee! Wee Wee Weeeeeee! That's what I hoping for the N Ga. folks my old stomping grounds in NW SC and points east. If we end up a couple of inches poorer for it, consider it a belated Christmas git. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow what a difference 6 hours makes on the NAM would probably for sure get 4-8 for most folks around me if that verified. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just readt the oo - of disco last night. Model jumping the mood swings was very evident in the disco. I agree with phil. Let's roll this next 24 hour period to victory Me model jumping? I try not to. I still think the Euro is the best model up until about 48 hours out. If the Euro continues to come in weaker at 12z and especially 0z tonight I'll begin to worry a little but I don't see that happening on tonight run. (12z still my show it though). It's all about trends and knowing what models to watch during their best ranges to pick up on the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just to show you the difference between the 6z NAM and GFS this morning, the GFS gives my area 4-8 for the whole event. The NAM however just at the start has us in 4-8...would probably be 8-12 for the duration. We are still in it boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Me model jumping? I try not to. I still think the Euro is the best model up until about 48 hours out. If the Euro continues to come in weaker at 12z and especially 0z tonight I'll begin to worry a little but I don't see that happening on tonight run. (12z still my show it though). It's all about trends and knowing what models to watch during their best ranges to pick up on the trends. All I care about with the Euro is about the temps. Maybe I'm being overly positive but like you said this always happens. 12z will have better data to feed from so it should be telling, Less we forget this Christmas storm, it came in stronger with the low...since this storm doesn't need to phase at the perfect time I think we'll be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif A start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Burger, looks like maybe we will get our dumping, looks pretty good at this point. Todays event may sneak up on many. Yea I'm really liking this, with the GFS and NAM coming in stronger this morning (did it start with better sampling?), Like I said though 12z and 00z should really tell the tale if the NAM stays wet at 12z then this is serious and there should be no one on the edge of the cliff. Also it should be noted that most models seem to under do the cold a little bit at the SFC...those other layers above though it's anybodies ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow! The model agreement here is ridiculous. I realize the weakening Euro run last night was somewhat concerning esp. further east, but wow! I can't remember in my 18+ years here in GA all of the models consistantly showing such a big winter storm in the SE. The strength of the 6Z NAM and GFS this morning was encouraging. I broke down and bought a Generator last night. My son fears I'm jinxing the storm, but I don't care. The fear of major ice just to my south has me a little concerned. I've considered getting a generator for several years. This looked like a good time to bite the bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just got up and man oh man do things STILL look good. Still a stinking 72 hours away from start though. 6z NAM plasters all areas north of a line just north of Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta with 6"+ of snow. It actually paints 15+" IMBY. LOL. This like trends are translation further N and with the higher QPF amounts into SC and NC also. This is a total pleasure to track but I can't stand how much farther we have to go to get to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow! The model agreement here is ridiculous. I realize the weakening Euro run last night was somewhat concerning esp. further east, but wow! I can't remember in my 18+ years here in GA all of the models consistantly showing such a big winter storm in the SE. The strength of the 6Z NAM and GFS this morning was encouraging. I broke down and bought a Generator last night. My son fears I'm jinxing the storm, but I don't care. The fear of major ice just to my south has me a little concerned. I've considered getting a generator for several years. This looked like a good time to bite the bullet. Remember on the Christmas storm this was about the time where the EURO waffled out and the GFS and NAM started to get a clue before the EURO picked it back up at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL.. Nice to see that little yellow spot over Dawson's house. LOL....talk about being in the sweet spot of that run. Just which that was only 12 hours out versus 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM gives me 13"! There's no way I am gonna be able to focus in school today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM gives me 13"! There's no way I am gonna be able to focus in school today The thing that helps me right now is that it's the NAM model which is the worst of the bunch IMHO. If the GFS starts to pop that much QPF then my excitement controls are out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm starting to thing it's going to be difficult if not impossible to avoid mixing issues in E. Central/Eastern NC with this one. The first system weakens as it begins to spread precip into the area. We hope it will be energized by the second system. But if that occurs, it seems likely that it will cause enough warming aloft to allow for a change to sleet or even some freezing rain. Is it possible for the second system to phase in with the first one in such a way that these zones can remain all snow? I wouldn't worry if it was just the one system, but with this other one coming in, that throws a lot of doubt in about a purely snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The thing that helps me right now is that it's the NAM model which is the worst of the bunch IMHO. If the GFS starts to pop that much QPF then my excitement controls are out the window. Well to be fair the nam nailed the Dec 19 2009 storm up here. Of course those high qpf totals came in a moderate el nino. Still nice to see the nam look alot better at 500 than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 New Raleigh and GSP AFD's, GSP said major changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 queen us in cae are right in that purple spot. how much ice is the latest gfs forecasting? starting to get nervous. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Morning folks,,, been out yesterday & today, and "catching up".... Guess if I want oysters, I'd better get them today... KLIM Local AFD Valid 701 am EST Friday Jan 7 2011 Synopsis... a strong cold front will move across the area later today. Cold...blustery and dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. A significant winter storm is looking more like a possibility Monday and early Tuesday followed by cold and dry conditions once again. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 2:50 am Friday...a powerful upper level low over the Great Lakes controls the weather over the eastern half of the nation. Cyclonic flow is directing a series of strong upper disturbances from the upper plains across the Carolinas. One disturbance is pushing across the area now and will be offshore by sunrise...leaving partly cloudy skies this morning. Clouds will increase through the afternoon as the the next much-stronger disturbance dives into the area tonight. The low and middle level flow should remain west to northwest through the event...leaving Gulf and Atlantic moisture out of the picture entirely. Precipitable water should only rise to around half an inch. What this system lacks in moisture it will make up for with very strong dynamics aloft. A zone of enhanced mesoscale-scale lift should develop in the NC/Tennessee mountains this afternoon and will streak east this evening...likely just scraping by the northern edge of our forecast area before midnight. Tight latitudinal thermal gradients should keep precipitation all rain across our forecast area...but you won't have to move too far north into North Carolina to see a transition to snow... and accumulating snow at that. We are expecting rain to begin across the Bennettsville-Dillon-Lumberton area around sunset...streaking across southeast North Carolina and then ending around midnight. Rain chances are not even in the forecast south of Marion and Myrtle Beach with the 700/850 mb layers expected to remain too dry. The surface low is expected to track from upstate South Carolina around sunset across Charlotte...Fayetteville...and then offshore around Cape Lookout by midnight. South of this low a jet of strong winds will bring relatively warm air into the area with temperatures likely not falling too much after sunset. Once the surface low pushes offshore and advection turns strongly cold...temperatures will plunge as northwest winds bring colder air in from the west and northwest. During the strongest period of winds this evening gusts could reach 35 miles per hour near the beaches. Highs today should range from around 50 across southeast North Carolina... to as high as the middle 50s in the Georgetown and Kingstree vicinity. Lows tonight should range from 30-35...warmest at the NC beaches. && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 2:50 am Friday...potent northwest flow will continue at least through Saturday at the middle levels with one last vorticity moving across Saturday afternoon albeit displaced a bit to the north. With the placement of this feature any sprinkles or virga should be well to the north. Surface high pressure moves in for Sunday. Mav continues to advertise very low mins for Sunday with the met somewhat warmer. Via the packing of the isobars...I cant see the boundary layer fully decoupling so I opted for the warmer met numbers. Other periods are in good agreement. Also expect some gusty conditions Saturday via deep mixing/momentum Transfer. && Long term /Monday through Thursday/... as of 2:50 am Friday...main focus remains on the southern stream system to affect the area late Sunday through early Tuesday. The 0000 UTC GFS remains consistent with its solution and the NAM...now within the time domain has generally the same idea...at least through 1200 UTC Monday. Miller A low pressure will slowly move across the northern Gulf and off of the South Carolina coast by early Tuesday morning. Thermal profiles are to say the least...ominous for a significant winter storm for all areas. Isentropic lift in the 285-295k level begins in force by Monday morning. With deep Omega in the dendritic growth zone...several hours of snow are likely. A warm nose in the 925-850mb layer advects in from about 1500 UTC Onward...however surface temperatures remain below freezing inland. This could lead to a few hours of sleet and or freezing rain. Terrestrial temperatures should be well conditioned with a cold morning Sunday while we remain just a couple of weeks away from the winter solstice. The disclaimer to all of this of course continues to be that the system remains offshore of California and has yet to enter the upper air network. However model consensus at this point cannot be ignored. For the forecast...I have trended p-type from all snow to a mix to all rain by the evening Monday. Will include significant wording in the severe weather potential statement. The remainder of the extended remains relatively unchanged...cold with a drying trend. && current Obs: 33.5 °F ClearWindchill:29 °F Humidity:100%Dew Point: 34 °F Wind: 6.2 mph from the WNW window.wind_animate['CONDBOXWIND']=new WindRotate("condboxArrowDiv",14,284); Wind Gust:10.4 mph Pressure:29.60 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.