Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, but that would mean that .01" + most of the 0.22" would fall with 850's below 0C (going by your numbers). My maps actually show close to 0.30" before the 850's reach 0.3 but that's beside the point. You had earlier said that the 850's were "well above freezing." However, they are below freezing for the first portion (say 0.20"+). I suppose, I use the accuwx pro site for the extracted data and just added it up in 6 hrs intervals. I hate using maps, not detail enough for me, and they output late on that site. MON 06Z 10-JAN 2.9 -1.1 1025 36 83 0.01 566 546 MON 12Z 10-JAN 1.3 0.3 1024 77 100 0.22 566 547 MON 18Z 10-JAN 4.7 1.4 1020 87 88 0.16 564 548 TUE 00Z 11-JAN 4.3 5.1 1016 93 15 0.12 564 551 TUE 06Z 11-JAN 3.3 7.4 1014 96 12 0.06 566 554 TUE 12Z 11-JAN 1.8 5.1 1016 93 17 0.01 566 553 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just perusing some of the lower skill models from 12z. The nogaps paints >1" qpf with the heaviest axis along and south of Birmingham to Augusta line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 0Z Fri GGEM has ~0.35" of qpf at CHS with 850's colder than 0C while there is pretty strong low level wedging/NE to NNE winds. That looks awfully close to a several inch sticking snow to me on that model run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 0Z Fri GGEM has ~0.35" of qpf at CHS with 850's colder than 0C while there is pretty strong low level wedging/NE to NNE winds. That looks awfully close to a several inch sticking snow to me on that model run.. The GGEM is snow for almost the entire state of SC. It leaves NC pretty dry though. Precip type map: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We dont get north of 32º IMBY through the entire Euro run after Sunday Aftn(even then only 1.3C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The next 6-12 hours of models runs are going to be key, because our southern stream shortwave will be making landfall across California. We should get a much better idea on how deep it is exactly... latest 06z nam is coming in a bit stronger with the shortwave initially. For most folks across the southeast, we want a stronger shortwave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow the 06z nam is way more amplified than any of its previous runs... Of course its the nam... will be interesting to see if the gfs follows suit and bucks the current weakening southern stream shortwave trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NWS-GSP AFD is up. It is gonna be an interesting week! http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NWS-GSP AFD is up. It is gonna be an interesting week! http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Great discussion from gsp.... I think folks in NC might want to check out the latest QPF from the 06z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM is phenomenal- 6" plus of snow, followed by several inches of sleet, then a couple tenths of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Goodnight at the NAM. Upstate SC won't be in the screw-zone anymore IF it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JACKPOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GSP still honking January 1988: EVEN CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS STILL OVER 3 DAYS AWAY. A QUICK LOOK AT THE ANALOGS SHOWS THAT BASED ON A STATISTICAL FIT TO THE H3/H5 PATTERN…THE JAN 1988 SNOW EVENT IS THE TOP ANALOG AND THAT STORM ACCUMULATED OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My snow accumulatoin graphic from the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Absolutely screws RDU...I'm pulling for everyone here to see a good snow overall but this one leaves MBY and east out of the solution. I'm kinda glad that I'm not in the bullseye at this point, though. I'll need a dozen more runs to get worried. I'm confused... this looks to be a good thump for RDU as well beyond 84 hours, if you extrapolate beyond that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Absolutely screws RDU...I'm pulling for everyone here to see a good snow overall but this one leaves MBY and east out of the solution. I'm kinda glad that I'm not in the bullseye at this point, though. I'll need a dozen more runs to get worried. The NAM only goes out to hr84. The qpf hasn't gotten to RDU yet. Never thought i'd see this comment from Jon. Maybe Wildremann or Brick but not Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good News... the 06z gfs is also starting off stronger with the southern stream shortwave... this could very well be an indication that the southern stream shortwave was not being properly sampled over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm confused... this looks to be a good thump for RDU as well beyond 84 hours, if you extrapolate beyond that time. The NAM only goes out to hr84. The qpf hasn't gotten to RDU yet. Never thought i'd see this comment from Jon. Maybe Wildremann or Brick but not Jon. Oh lord...I just realized. These must be good pain meds, got my wisdom teeth out yesterday afternoon...just woke up mid stupor and posted. NAM GOES OUT TO 84! What was I thinking? I should go back to bed, hahaha. Carry on guys and ignore my previous comment of how the NAM screws RDU. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Oh lord...I just realized. These must be good pain meds, got my wisdom teeth yesterday afternoon...just woke up mid stupor and posted. NAM GOES OUT TO 84! What was I thinking? I should go back to bed, hahaha. Carry on guys and ignore my previous comment of how the NAM screws RDU. Please. Haha...I know how you feel man. I got all four of my wisdom teeth out on Tuesday. That medicine definitely makes you loopy. The doctor prescribed me Hydrocodon on this end. My face is still swollen like a blimp though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FFC just put out a Special Weather Statement. 1-2 inches possible Sun Night and Mon, isolated areas up to 3 inches. Doesn't sound like Warning criteria, maybe advisories will be issued ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FFC just put out a Special Weather Statement. 1-2 inches possible Sun Night and Mon, isolated areas up to 3 inches. Doesn't sound like Warning criteria, maybe advisories will be issued ? Your in the south and it is 60+ hours away...Hope it works out for you, but taking the low road for the NWS is the right thing to do. If the models hold serve. those amounts will be bumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS appears to be wetter over this area at hr78 of this run compared to hr84 of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FFC just put out a Special Weather Statement. 1-2 inches possible Sun Night and Mon, isolated areas up to 3 inches. Doesn't sound like Warning criteria, maybe advisories will be issued ? Way too timid- typical. They really are horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is easily wetter here...and I'd like to print out the 84 hour NAM and do terrible things to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS appears to be wetter over this area at hr78 of this run compared to hr84 of last run. Definitely some QPF changes as expected but overall set up between the 06z and 00z appears to be carbon copies...with exception of the L being -1mb in difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. Sorry, with all this incredible model agreement 1-2" is too conservative, period. I would not go really high officially right now, but at this point I will be shocked if at least someone in the Metro does not get 4" and that is conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not only is the GFS wetter, it is noticeably colder. Pure snow sounding here through 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, FFC said in their morning discussion that Watches/Warnings may need to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS snow depth product over 6" in all of north GA, a bullseye of 9" near Gainseville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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