Wild Weather Monger Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 For ATL .32 thru 12z Mon. All snow. .51 total... mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yep. Its a 1016. The precip gets off to a good start in the lower miss. valley and gradually wanes eastward. Guess i was wrong. But then again most models are still too light with Gulf systems, so I don't think this is it exactly. By Tuesday am, its redeveloping off Charleston, so tht would fit the pattern to have precip approach here, die out, then reform east of here. Oh well. If this were an El Nino year....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its restrenghtened to 1008 at HAT or so by 114. Any decent qpf for parts of NC at 108 and 114, or is it all really light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good to see it trend colder for CHS, hopefully we get decent qpfs. Still worried about the maritime influence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lucky to break 2 tenths around here. yeah. The upstate to north GA from ATL north and back to northern Alabama get .50" or so. Good event. At any rate, I'll check more of this system tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its restrenghtened to 1008 at HAT or so by 114. Yeah, it should get cranking in time to hit DC.... Oh well, maybe tomorrow will be different. Goodnight and thanks for the pbp Robert and Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah. The upstate to north GA from ATL north and back to northern Alabama get .50" or so. Good event. At any rate, I'll check more of this system tomorrow. It's not that bad for us from what i can tell...less than the last run but still half an inch. Most of it falls when we'd probably have 14:1-16:1 ratios so we may still do decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The biggest winners on this run is around Dallas Fort Worth, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas as they maximize dynamics and have just enough cold air. Probably .75 to over 1.0" qpf there. I dont' think this run is the kiss of death for us further east though....not too many storms started in the southern part of Texas dies out like that. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CAE: .44 QPF Basically a mixed bag of everything. Maybe the GFS is on to something for sure since 18z. The GGEM hits SC hard with snow, but like the Euro pretty much screws NC on the precip.. a lot to work out before Sunday/Monday night approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No reason to get too upset yet if your in NC... we have seen things wax and wane with this system, and we are still a good 4 days out, so plenty can and will change. The only question is what direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Check back in my folks in NC on SAT afternoon and I bet we are back in it! No need to say anything else, you know the routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How are the qpfs for the eastern carolinas? CHS : .58 all rain it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's not that bad for us from what i can tell...less than the last run but still half an inch. Most of it falls when we'd probably have 14:1-16:1 ratios so we may still do decent. At LEAST the temp profiles are better! There is still plenty of time for the qpf progs to change. So far, EVERY system has overperformed with QPF I THINK? Tomorrow is only Friday. Still a lot of time. At least this thing is not trending to Cuba or cutting throught the midsection.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, it should get cranking in time to hit DC.... Oh well, maybe tomorrow will be different. Goodnight and thanks for the pbp Robert and Wow! Looks like this run jsut mises them and stays offshore mostly, but give it a coulple more runs and I wouldnt' be suprised.....no matter what , all snowstorms head to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What about eastern NC, from RDU and east? Haven't heard any qpf totals for that area. Edit, added QPF wrong... RDU: .42QPF mixed bag also.. 0.3 850's though are the warmest they get.. so not sure exactly if that would just be snow and sleet or what.. surface stays frozen whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How are the qpfs for the eastern carolinas? Its hard to say since I'd have to subtract teh clipper precip, but roughly I'd say slightly less than .50" so not too bad at all. Theres a relative min in the central Carolinas from CAE to CLT to GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RDU: .99 so 1" QPF.. mixed bag also.. 0.3 850's though are the warmest they get.. so not sure exactly if that would just be snow and sleet or what.. surface stays frozen whole time. Thanks for that! So it sounds like the low must throw more precip back as it develops off the OBX.. Interesting trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks for that! So it sounds like the low must throw more precip back as it develops off the OBX.. Interesting trend. I added the precip wrong I believe, so I ended up coming with .42 instead of .99 so final RDU QPF is .42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its hard to say since I'd have to subtract teh clipper precip, but roughly I'd say slightly less than .50" so not too bad at all. Theres a relative min in the central Carolinas from CAE to CLT to GSO. Right at .5 for our region, except GSP which squeezes out an extra 5 hundreths. Ratios as shown on the warmer GFS bufkit start out at 20:1 and fall to 12:1...so I think that .48 could easily be 6" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I added the precip wrong I believe, so I ended up coming with .42 instead of .99 Haha that's alright, I thought 1" sounded really really good but .42 isn't too bad. We could get more snow tomorrow from the clipper/mauler than we will from the "big storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CHS : .58 all rain it seems. It would be only if the marine influence were significant. With strong enough wedging from that high to the north, I'm leaning to a NE wind based on old wx maps from similar wedging situations, which could easily lack an ocean trajectory and keep the cold/dry air feeding in while the low is moving along the Gulf coast. IF that were to occur, then CHS woud have a wintry mess if this run were to be close to reality. Also, keep in mind the warm bias for 2 meter Euro temp.'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It would be only if the marine influence were significant. With strong enough wedging from that high to the north, I'm leaning to a NE wind based on old wx maps from similar wedging situations, which could easily lack an ocean trajectory and keep the cold/dry air feeding in while the low is moving along the Gulf coast. IF that were to occur, then CHS woud have a wintry mess if this run were to be close to reality. Yeah, I'm just going by surface temps, and 850's. All well above freezing on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ATL: .52 RDU: .42 GSP: .53 CAE .44 CLT: .45 CHS: .58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its hard to say since I'd have to subtract teh clipper precip, but roughly I'd say slightly less than .50" so not too bad at all. Theres a relative min in the central Carolinas from CAE to CLT to GSO. Hey Robert. Thanks again for the commentary/analysis tonight. What do you mean by "relative min" for the areas in bold? Professional terminology for SCREWED, qpf wise, WRT this run? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Do you have HSV?? thanks HSV: .70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, I'm just going by surface temps, and 850's. All well above freezing on the Euro. 1) Keep in mind that the Euro's 2 meter temp.'s tend to have a warm bias. 2) 850's at CHS are 0C or colder for the first 0.30" of qpf. 3) Once the 850's rise above 0C, there'd be a good chance for some IP/ZR assuming the lack of a marine low level trajectory (i.e. NE to NNE sfc winds as opposed to ENE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It would be only if the marine influence were significant. With strong enough wedging from that high to the north, I'm leaning to a NE wind based on old wx maps from similar wedging situations, which could easily lack an ocean trajectory and keep the cold/dry air feeding in while the low is moving along the Gulf coast. IF that were to occur, then CHS woud have a wintry mess if this run were to be close to reality. Also, keep in mind the warm bias for 2 meter Euro temp.'s. Thanks for your insight. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds, you were dead on with the Feb 12th storm, lets hope your right once again with this one I really hope we at least get some wintry wx here, I wont hold my breath for any accums though. Hopefully you get some wintry wx in SAV too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1) Keep in mind that the Euro's 2 meter temp.'s tend to have a warm bias. 2) 850's at CHS are 0C or colder for the first 0.30" of qpf. 3) Once the 850's rise above 0C, there'd be a good chance for some IP/ZR assuming the lack of a marine low level trajectory (i.e. NE to NNE sfc winds as opposed to ENE). Hm that's odd. On the extracted data I see .01 qpf in CHS falling at -1.1 850's. Then in the 6 hr period following at some point the 850's rise to 0.3 and .22 falls. Then the next 6 hr period. 850's climb to 1.4 and .16 falls. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Since it's already Friday now in the SE, and the system is supposed to come around the Sunday night/Monday time frame... think paying closer attention to the GFS and NAM opposed to the foreign models may be best. The GFS was the first to hint at the weakening system and now the Euro has weakened it into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hm that's odd. On the extracted data I see .01 qpf in CHS falling at -1.1 850's. Then in the 6 hr period following at some point the 850's rise to 0.3 and .22 falls. Then the next 6 hr period. 850's climb to 1.4 and .16 falls. etc. Yes, but that would mean that .01" + most of the 0.22" would fall with 850's below 0C (going by your numbers). My maps actually show close to 0.30" before the 850's reach 0.3 but that's beside the point. You had earlier said that the 850's were "well above freezing." However, they are below freezing for the first portion (say 0.20"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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