MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OK here it is. If someone wants to delete mine and use someone else...than I'm ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well the moisture keeps getting lighter and lighter each run! But this was expected as usual thing get a little hairy around here within the 3 to 4 day range. Saturday we probably will start worry about being dry slotted or something crazy like that. Then Sunday comes and we realize we are alright and a calmness sets in. BIG FROSTY, on 06 January 2011 - 07:29 PM, said: The GooFuS drops 0.27 qpf on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good stuff Dawson, hopefully you can carry on Cold Rain's mojo. It's pretty remarkable to see all the models starting to converge on a solution when we're still fairly far out. As I think BMX said in their AFD, it's not a matter of if frozen precip will fall (north of I-20 I suppose), it's a matter of what type. FFC has done a decent job so far, but if the storm trends warmer we'll just get a boatload of ice instead of snow. I expect some aggressive wording tomorrow morning if the 0Z runs remain consistent, because (as many mets here have said) we're looking at a doozy of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good stuff Dawson, hopefully you can carry on Cold Rain's mojo. It's pretty remarkable to see all the models starting to converge on a solution when we're still fairly far out. As I think BMX said in their AFD, it's not a matter of if frozen precip will fall (north of I-20 I suppose), it's a matter of what type. FFC has done a decent job so far, but if the storm trends warmer we'll just get a boatload of ice instead of snow. I expect some aggressive wording tomorrow morning if the 0Z runs remain consistent, because (as many mets here have said) we're looking at a doozy of a storm. Well, they are forecasting a wintry mix in South GA, so I would say that I-20 won't be the dividing line like it often is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, they are forecasting a wintry mix in South GA, so I would say that I-20 won't be the dividing line like it often is. You'll be fine dude, no need to worry over semantics (I-20 is just a convenient dividing line). Looking at the 0C surface line on the GFS/NAm it does look like parts of central and even southern GA get some icing. Nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It seems like it's an almost a sure thing now that I-20 and north in AL/GA/SC is going to be a big storm of some frozen precip, hopefully snow. But in NC we are going to have to sweat this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It seems like it's an almost a sure thing now that I-20 and north in AL/GA/SC is going to be a big storm of some frozen precip, hopefully snow. But in NC we are going to have to sweat this out. You are to young to remember but back in the old days before the interstates the snow used to just sweep right down to the Gulf. In NC before I40 was built the whole state used to see snow with almost every storm. Sometimes progress has a steep price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 KMEG lists "heavy snow" for Sunday night... Rare they do that this far out from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It seems like it's an almost a sure thing now that I-20 and north in AL/GA/SC is going to be a big storm of some frozen precip, hopefully snow. But in NC we are going to have to sweat this out. pretty weird that were hundreds and hundreds of miles further north but places to the south may get snow while we get something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man, those interstates really messed things up! Sorry! Storm Mode! Yeah folks, new thread so the new rules are going to be enforced. Let's keep it on topic and leave the comedy and one liners to the banter thread. I've already deleted half this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hi all im new here what does it look like for augusta ga seems like our forecast comes from cae but 20 miles west comes from atlanta. ice snow or rain for us??? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 widre RUC shouldn't really be used except for current conditions and very short-term forecasting (just a few hours out). Precip fields are worthless. foothills the RUC did extremely well out to 12 hours an d 18 on the minor (near miss) event a few weeks ago with wet snow and rain to snow in NC , and the Dec 26 morning event in western NC, SC and GA with teh 700mb moisure lee trough that dumped 3" here. But overall its qpf leaves a lot to be desired.I nominate NeGa to start a thread. Don't recall he has , and it can really precipitate there LOL. as foothills posted in the other thread just before it was locked (above), i disagree on this widre (the first quote). the ruc has actually done quite well (at least for n ga) during the last few winter events (including christmas), including last year. it has done a pretty good job with qpf. i dont usually use it until the storm is upon us - and then i tend to focus on the RUC more than any of the others. so far it aint done me wrong if the models show lighter precip, remember what happened a couple of days before the christmas storm, only to have it come back fast and furious the day before the storm. i guess i missed the boat on the thread by a few minutes LOL - i think we did well when dawson did one before for i am all for it. besides, at this rate we will probably have another two threads at least before the storm even starts (unless we run into a model disaster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hi all im new here what does it look like for augusta ga seems like our forecast comes from cae but 20 miles west comes from atlanta. ice snow or rain for us??? Thanks You are new here so I won't jump all over you with the in my back yard post. But these types of questions are a big no no in this thread..mainly because more often than not it's been answered and will be answered repeatedly by numerous posters. If you must, go to the banter thread and ask the how much for my hometown questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You are new here so I won't jump all over you with the in my back yard post. But these types of questions are a big no no in this thread..mainly because more often than not it's been answered and will be answered repeatedly by numerous posters. If you must, go to the banter thread and ask the how much for my hometown questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can anyone explain to me just how Accuweather's maps and forecast are SO different than ANYTHING the mets and smart guys here are saying? I know in the last thread folks were trashing Accu and I can see why but, taken literally, what are they looking at with this specific system to have everything shifted so north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well thru 36 on the NAM the NE vortex is south when compared to the 18z NAM, so that's not a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Roadways conditions are expected to deteriorate as soon as Sunday night according to the HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can anyone explain to me just how Accuweather's maps and forecast are SO different than ANYTHING the mets and smart guys here are saying? I know in the last thread folks were trashing Accu and I can see why but, taken literally, what are they looking at with this specific system to have everything shifted so north? I don't think it's possible to know what they are looking at unless you are up in PA with them. That being said, it has become painfully obvious they are catering to their paying subscription base. Those MA'ers must like seeing maps with a lot of pretty colors whether they pan out or not? Needless to say, the representation of what HM put out there tonight is laughable and not even possible with the currently depicted h5 setup. Apparently, drugs do work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Check out this link to NWS description of the January 1988 storm that gave GSP 12 inches of snow. It said in the body of the text that snow stayed on the ground for two weeks due to unusually cold temps following the storm. Also many businesses and schools were closed for a week. How similar is this set up to that storm? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @54 on the NAM it's not nearly as wet in TX as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Roadways conditions are expected to deteriorate as soon as Sunday night according to the HPC. thats a pretty cool map - is it a new feature they are trying? where did you find that link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM weaker and a bit more pos tilt at 48. we need to go in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM is more positively tilted in NM/Mexico at 54- we will see how that plays out, the PV in the NE is a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nam is not very impressive so far, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man that vortex is being rather stubborn by not wanting to move out of the way in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Check out this link to NWS description of the January 1988 storm that gave GSP 12 inches of snow. It said in the body of the text that snow stayed on the ground for two weeks due to unusually cold temps following the storm. Also many businesses and schools were closed for a week. How similar is this set up to that storm? http://www.erh.noaa....s/ta2001-02.pdf Here is raleighwx analysis of the same storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Jan1988.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @60 it finally starts to crank out some QPF but not as strong as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 @60 it finally starts to crank out some QPF but not as strong as the 18z Seems like the NAM is moving along with the trend of weakening the s/w further. Not looking too good right now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like 1.04" around and N of Big D at 60 @60 it finally starts to crank out some QPF but not as strong as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.