Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He is very confident models are wrong and this will be a heavy snow for the i95 weenies. Compared the setup to some storm that happened in Feb 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He is very confident models are wrong and this will be a heavy snow for the i95 weenies. Compared the setup to some storm that happened in Feb 83 JB is that Joe Bastardi or Joe Buck ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He is very confident models are wrong and this will be a heavy snow for the i95 weenies. Compared the setup to some storm that happened in Feb 83 Not really sure where his confidence is. Even if there was full model consensus at a coastal, I wouldn't be confident given the fragile nature of the setup and the small window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He is very confident models are wrong and this will be a heavy snow for the i95 weenies. Compared the setup to some storm that happened in Feb 83 He has to be right one time, matters well be now. Think of it this way he is 0 for 3 so far this season on calls so even if he gets this right he will be 1 for 4 which is a .250 average. Even the lowly Orioles would barely put up with that horrible batting average . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not really sure where his confidence is. Even if there was full model consensus at a coastal, I wouldn't ne confident given the fragile nature of the setup and the small window of opportunity. He says nao turning positive will ensure a track up the coast.talks about how all models lose storm 4-5 days out only to bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He says nao turning positive will ensure a track up the coast.talks about how all models lose storm 4-5 days out only to bring it back What a silly reasoning. The southern stream wave is a bigger influence in this, and the dominance of it is killing the low level advection patterns and eating away at a huge moisture feed. The western trough is ejecting over a dead baroclinic zone and there is no development. Take away the block completely and it doesn't matter...the western trough can't advect warm air northward anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 He says system in the back will catch up to the leftover from the front runner like in 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He says system in the back will catch up to the leftover from the front runner like in 1983 83 was the last time he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 There really isnt much difference between 6z and 18z. It can go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He has to be right one time, matters well be now. Think of it this way he is 0 for 3 so far this season on calls so even if he gets this right he will be 1 for 4 which is a .250 average. Even the lowly Orioles would barely put up with that horrible batting average . Yeah, well the as-lowly Cleveland Indians just might pick him up then, to help with their offense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What a silly reasoning. The southern stream wave is a bigger influence in this, and the dominance of it is killing the low level advection patterns and eating away at a huge moisture feed. The western trough is ejecting over a dead baroclinic zone and there is no development. Take away the block completely and it doesn't matter...the western trough can't advect warm air northward anyways. I agree that it is a problem, but the 6z GFS had the frontrunner but then was able to re-energize things once the upper level energy from the western trough got involved. The biggest difference now is the latest runs are washing that out. Also, models sometimes key in on the frontrunner and miss how much will be left over for whats behind. I think its a long shot but I see how what he says is possible. Of course he goes and makes it seem likely and that is where I take issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree that it is a problem, but the 6z GFS had the frontrunner but then was able to re-energize things once the upper level energy from the western trough got involved. The biggest difference now is the latest runs are washing that out. Also, models sometimes key in on the frontrunner and miss how much will be left over for whats behind. I think its a long shot but I see how what he says is possible. Of course he goes and makes it seem likely and that is where I take issue. Exactly! I agree totally with this. It's one thing to elucidate the possibility but no guidance right now is going for an all-out heavy snow for the I-95 corridor. So to bang the drum as if it's likely is doing nobody a service. That being said, I sure hope it works out that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree that it is a problem, but the 6z GFS had the frontrunner but then was able to re-energize things once the upper level energy from the western trough got involved. The biggest difference now is the latest runs are washing that out. Also, models sometimes key in on the frontrunner and miss how much will be left over for whats behind. I think its a long shot but I see how what he says is possible. Of course he goes and makes it seem likely and that is where I take issue. Right, talked a little about that in the discussion thread. The western trough is much slower this run and it can't save the low level circulation as the southern wave craps out. That window is tiny for development since the western trough has to be right on time both to save the low level circulation but to get a tiny bit of WAA and height rises before it heads E. ECM treats the western trough more as a "kicker" low and ejects the southern wave ahead before it flattens out into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Right, talked a little about that in the discussion thread. The western trough is much slower this run and it can't save the low level circulation as the southern wave craps out. That window is tiny for development since the western trough has to be right on time both to save the low level circulation but to get a tiny bit of WAA and height rises before it heads E. ECM treats the western trough more as a "kicker" low and ejects the southern wave ahead before it flattens out into oblivion. No doubt the second piece of energy has trended slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not really sure where his confidence is. Even if there was full model consensus at a coastal, I wouldn't be confident given the fragile nature of the setup and the small window of opportunity. For JB, this is a rock solid setup. But in fairness, I've never seen a non-fragile setup 5 days out. This seems pretty run of the mill as coastal storm scenarios go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For JB, this is a rock solid setup. But in fairness, I've never seen a non-fragile setup 5 days out. This seems pretty run of the mill as coastal storm scenarios go. I liked the setup for the Feb 6th storm last year from 10 days out. Strong STJ, really strong southern stream vort, PNA ridge, all that moisture being slammed into a PV blocked in... that was easy to see from way out. These storms this winter are a lot harder to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the southern jet is rearing up with loads of moisture...The ducks are on the pond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What a silly reasoning. The southern stream wave is a bigger influence in this, and the dominance of it is killing the low level advection patterns and eating away at a huge moisture feed. The western trough is ejecting over a dead baroclinic zone and there is no development. Take away the block completely and it doesn't matter...the western trough can't advect warm air northward anyways. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new The February 1983 storm shows up as the 5th best analog. I myself like the fourth one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 both the big storms dec 18-19/feb 5-6 last yr had 83 mentioned as analogs doesnt look much like them at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree that it is a problem, but the 6z GFS had the frontrunner but then was able to re-energize things once the upper level energy from the western trough got involved. The biggest difference now is the latest runs are washing that out. Also, models sometimes key in on the frontrunner and miss how much will be left over for whats behind. I think its a long shot but I see how what he says is possible. Of course he goes and makes it seem likely and that is where I take issue. It's not JB only who is honking. Henry Margusity is as well and Joe Lundberg so it is not just Bastardi. And at least some mets on this board think the set up has a good shot of bring the storm up the coast. HPC is close but still outside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 both the big storms dec 18-19/feb 5-6 last yr had 83 mentioned as analogs doesnt look much like them at least Not to me either. I really liked the feb storm at this time range as it had a nice ridge behind the northern shortwave to ensure it dug. So did the dec 19 event. This one the ridge gets knocked down by a another shortwave and northern shortwave moves too slow to capture the southern shortwave. Instead the latter minors out but takes the low enough to the east to ruin the chances of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 both the big storms dec 18-19/feb 5-6 last yr had 83 mentioned as analogs doesnt look much like them at least I actually never saw that analog with those storms. It was a nino and there were some similarities in the pattern but the specifics of how the storm evolved were totally different IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 83 was the last time he was right. Actually he was right 2 weeks ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 He is very confident models are wrong and this will be a heavy snow for the i95 weenies. Compared the setup to some storm that happened in Feb 83 Haha wtf? He just posted last week that there would likely be no more blockbusters other than in New England lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Actually he was right 2 weeks ago, lol. Well of course. When it does snow, AccuWx will always be right because they always go with the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well of course. When it does snow, AccuWx will always be right because they always go with the best case scenario. Fixed The models do seem to be trending better, but now some are worrying about the storm hugging the coast too closely lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Fixed The models do seem to be trending better, but now some are worrying about the storm hugging the coast too closely lol. Well, in JB's defense he did say areas that got hit hard by the December 26th storm might go over to rain with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Fixed The models do seem to be trending better, but now some are worrying about the storm hugging the coast too closely lol. Haha thanks... Yeah I forgot that what many consider "worst" case scenario is actually the "best" case scenario for the winter lovers And I don't mean any of this to imply that I don't think the storm will happen. I do have my doubts about the big event, but that aside... When was the last time there was at least a small chance for a storm, and AccuWx did NOT hype it into the next Feb 83, Mar 93, Jan 96, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new The February 1983 storm shows up as the 5th best analog. I myself like the fourth one. Great link, I take it the link automatically updates though? I am seeing the 1/7/11 00Z thrown up at this point and surprisingly number two on the list is Feb 6 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new The February 1983 storm shows up as the 5th best analog. I myself like the fourth one. The updated list from that site now contains among its Top 5: 12/19/2009 2/6/2010 1/26/1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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