magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Honestly, it looks like the moisture plume is forming too far south in the southern part of NC. Likely this will help no one as the temps are too high down there. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Have received a good 2" of snow since about dusk here southwest of Asheville. 4-star snow for a time this evening, tapered now to 3-star. Impressive event for a clipper. Snow has clung to everything in sight. What a winter wonderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sorry, should have clarified... I mean underperform in the snow dept in the advisory area. I don't care about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have had a light rain snow mix for the past hour with the lighter radar returns. It appears that some heavier precipitation will move across my area over the next couple of hours along the NC/VA border. Temperature has dropped to 35.8 after a high today of 46.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not underperformed here a bit. I've seen the most snow I've seen in quite a while from a clipper type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep, it appears to be training into the central Sandhills and low 40s for temps. Drat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Pretty good rain here and the temp just dropped about 4 degrees in 10 minutes. Still only 46 so I don't expect any frozen precip.....put I'm pretty sure I'm getting the moisture you NC folks were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The rain snow mix has finally turned to all snow here along the NC/VA border. Radar doesn't look too good in the long term as this is an isolated band, but it is snowing at a good clip. Temperature is still above freezing at 33.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WRAL has called a storm cancel for tonight. Can't link on my phone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good chunk of the WWA in NC was just canceled... 946 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083-084-080400- /O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T1500Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO... ROCKINGHAM 946 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PRECIPITATION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS ANTICIPATED... AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY... DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE WILL NO LONGER BE A THREAT. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I just witnessed one of the heaviest snow bands I have seen in a long time. I ended up with about 2 inches in a little less than an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't think this thing is over, at least for WNC, yet. Check this out,and watch the bloom: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know it's an isolated event, but this little batch of snow moving along the NC/VA border is pretty intense. I picked up close to 1/2 inch in the past 30 minutes and it is still coming down. Also despite the temperature being right at freezing, 31.8. The roads have become snow and slush covered. I tried to get a good picture but this is the best I could get of the road that passes in front of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I live a mile from RDU airport. The stars are out here. Unreal how badly they missed this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks to be a bust in the Triangle area as there hasn't even been a hint of any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How is it possible that both the 12Z or 18Z GFS or NAM completely missed the moderate area of precipitation in central/southern SC? They also had the axis of heaviest precip in NC farther north than the NC/SC boarder. Sure, the GFS had some very light QPF in SC, but it was nothing like what is there now. The NAM had nothing. What this proves to me once and for all, especially when trying to forecast snow east of the mountains with clipper systems, is that no matter how strong the clipper is, how unique the situation is, or how anomalous the atmospheric state is, you might as well flip a coin as to whether their will be snow in the Piedmont or not. It doesn't matter what model you're using, how much experience you have as a forecaster, or which Almanac you're using. You simply cannot predict with any accuracy A) whether snowfall will occur and how much there will be. You might as well draw a 500 mile circle and say that somewhere in there, there might be some snow which might or might not accumulate. I don't mean to offend anyone who has put effort into forecasting this and commenting on it. I really do appreciate reading all of the comments and the effort that goes into it. But it's just silly that 12 hours in, the best guidance we have can't help you make an accurate forecast. Sorry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cold Rain, does this change rule #4 in your rules for SE Winter 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cold Rain, does this change rule #4 in your rules for SE Winter 2010? I always assumed it was sarcasm.... but this all works out karmically. Last clipper WAY overperformed. Over 2" here on Dec 4. No precip whatsoever today. Meh. It all balances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cold Rain, does this change rule #4 in your rules for SE Winter 2010? Haha! It's fixed now. Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know it's an isolated event, but this little batch of snow moving along the NC/VA border is pretty intense. I picked up close to 1/2 inch in the past 30 minutes and it is still coming down. Also despite the temperature being right at freezing, 31.8. The roads have become snow and slush covered. I tried to get a good picture but this is the best I could get of the road that passes in front of my house. it's perplexing these bands aren't more widespread. the upper level pattern was pretty much ideal. se la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Full blown FAIL here as well. Not one drop or flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Full blown FAIL here as well. Not one drop or flake! Yea i tried to highlight the piedmont and coastal plain as the highest area of uncertainy last night and boy was I ever right... the precipitation formed in SC where it was well too warm for snowfall... Thus while my mountain part of the map verified alright... the piedmont and coastal plain were a horrific fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no snow here but temp has dropped and now the deck is one big ice sheet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I live a mile from RDU airport. The stars are out here. Unreal how badly they missed this one. It doesn't seem like the chance of an inch vs not getting anything isn't really a "bad miss". I had a few drops of rain around 7ish as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It doesn't seem like the chance of an inch vs not getting anything isn't really a "bad miss". I had a few drops of rain around 7ish as well. For the Highway 64 area, the question wasn't would it snow, but how fast and how much would accumulate. The precip field formed 100 miles south of where all the models had it pegged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the Highway 64 area, the question wasn't would it snow, but how fast and how much would accumulate. The precip field formed 100 miles south of where all the models had it pegged. I have to agree when you go with a possible 3-5 and nothing falls. That is pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We should be used to fails around here. Usually, that's how it turns out. Probably will be the same with the Monday/Tuesday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This clipper actually over performed here along the NC/VA border. There was never an advisory put out for Rockingham County, but the roads are about as bad as you can get right now. I live on the main highway heading North out of Eden (NC 14) and it has been untreated. Nothing but solid ice now after 1/2" of snow earlier. The temperature is currently 26.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ended up with almost 5" here. The local NWS originally forecasted for 2-4", then they dropped it to 1-3". I think my neighborhood was the winner in the area, though, but definitely this clipper outperformed IMBY. Edit: Heavy snow again adding to the totals from this morning. Will it ever stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.