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Pay attention to the clipper tonight in NC


HKY_WX

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Good chunk of the WWA in NC was just canceled...

946 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083-084-080400-

/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T1500Z/

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-

ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-

WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-

ANSON-RICHMOND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...

WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...

HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...

NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...

RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...

SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...

ROCKINGHAM

946 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS ANTICIPATED...

AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...

DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE WILL NO

LONGER BE A THREAT. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN

CANCELLED.

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I know it's an isolated event, but this little batch of snow moving along the NC/VA border is pretty intense. I picked up close to 1/2 inch in the past 30 minutes and it is still coming down. Also despite the temperature being right at freezing, 31.8. The roads have become snow and slush covered. I tried to get a good picture but this is the best I could get of the road that passes in front of my house.

post-1075-0-37592100-1294456791.jpg

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How is it possible that both the 12Z or 18Z GFS or NAM completely missed the moderate area of precipitation in central/southern SC? They also had the axis of heaviest precip in NC farther north than the NC/SC boarder. Sure, the GFS had some very light QPF in SC, but it was nothing like what is there now. The NAM had nothing.

What this proves to me once and for all, especially when trying to forecast snow east of the mountains with clipper systems, is that no matter how strong the clipper is, how unique the situation is, or how anomalous the atmospheric state is, you might as well flip a coin as to whether their will be snow in the Piedmont or not. It doesn't matter what model you're using, how much experience you have as a forecaster, or which Almanac you're using. You simply cannot predict with any accuracy A) whether snowfall will occur and B) how much there will be. You might as well draw a 500 mile circle and say that somewhere in there, there might be some snow which might or might not accumulate.

I don't mean to offend anyone who has put effort into forecasting this and commenting on it. I really do appreciate reading all of the comments and the effort that goes into it. But it's just silly that 12 hours in, the best guidance we have can't help you make an accurate forecast.

Sorry for the rant.

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I know it's an isolated event, but this little batch of snow moving along the NC/VA border is pretty intense. I picked up close to 1/2 inch in the past 30 minutes and it is still coming down. Also despite the temperature being right at freezing, 31.8. The roads have become snow and slush covered. I tried to get a good picture but this is the best I could get of the road that passes in front of my house.

it's perplexing these bands aren't more widespread. the upper level pattern was pretty much ideal. se la vie.

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Full blown FAIL here as well. Not one drop or flake! :gun_bandana:

Yea i tried to highlight the piedmont and coastal plain as the highest area of uncertainy last night and boy was I ever right... the precipitation formed in SC where it was well too warm for snowfall... Thus while my mountain part of the map verified alright... the piedmont and coastal plain were a horrific fail.

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It doesn't seem like the chance of an inch vs not getting anything isn't really a "bad miss".

I had a few drops of rain around 7ish as well.

For the Highway 64 area, the question wasn't would it snow, but how fast and how much would accumulate. The precip field formed 100 miles south of where all the models had it pegged.

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For the Highway 64 area, the question wasn't would it snow, but how fast and how much would accumulate. The precip field formed 100 miles south of where all the models had it pegged.

I have to agree when you go with a possible 3-5 and nothing falls. That is pretty bad.

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This clipper actually over performed here along the NC/VA border. There was never an advisory put out for Rockingham County, but the roads are about as bad as you can get right now. I live on the main highway heading North out of Eden (NC 14) and it has been untreated. Nothing but solid ice now after 1/2" of snow earlier. The temperature is currently 26.4.

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Ended up with almost 5" here. The local NWS originally forecasted for 2-4", then they dropped it to 1-3". I think my neighborhood was the winner in the area, though, but definitely this clipper outperformed IMBY.

Edit: Heavy snow again adding to the totals from this morning. Will it ever stop? :D

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