chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol This is one of the things I live for here. Before every storm, there is always at least one lurker who congeals out of the woodwork to tell me how annoying and wrong I am. You're not vicious. You're like Eeyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Before every storm, there is always at least one lurker who congeals out of the woodwork to tell me how annoying and wrong I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Greenville ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM still not very interested in this - not much on 0z run outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Widre would shoot himself if he lived in Southern Pines 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Widre would shoot himself if he lived in Southern Pines 90% of the time. Probably not just because of the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 An excellent blurb from RAH tonight on this system. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE INITIALLY-SHEARED TROPOPAUSE DISTURBANCE -- AND ACCOMPANYING 100+KT MID LEVEL JET -- IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING. SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL STREAK RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT RACES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...AND PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A STRONGLY AGEOSTROPHIC MID-UPPER JET EXIT REGION...ON THE NW SIDE OF A DEEPENING MIGRATORY SURFACE WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING - A VERY FAVORABLE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL NC. THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT (IN EXCESS OF 6.5 C/KM) SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY A QUICK BURST OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF US HIGHWAY 64...AS THE DAY SHIFT HAS ALREADY NOTED (BELOW). IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT AT GSO WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES OF 1300/AND SUB-1500 METERS (ACCORDING TO THE EXTENSIVE KEETER WINTER WEATHER DATABASE)...AS FORECAST AT GSO FOR 00Z/8TH. THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANY SNOW...OR THAT THIS WOULD BE A VERY RARE...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AT PRESENT...AFTER ALL... -MWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Greenville ftw. Watch Hatteras win the jackpot, ha-ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't know what is causing the problem with the NAM's qpf output for the area along the KY/VA border. This area generally gets some of the highest totals from NW flow events. Just look at the radar during these, let alone obs. The above depiction clearly shows the upslope enhancement along the Tn/Nc border and in West Va but clearly ignores the favored SE,KY/SWVA area.??? Both the NAM and GFS have under forecasted qpf during every snow event this season thus far. Just yesterday for example, both had just a few hundredths total qpf for much of East Tn . Many area received a quarter inch or better with upwards of 3 inches of snow. I know the models probably get less data ingested in them from this area and also the terrain has it's effects but, it seems this problem has been more prevalent of late. I'm curious if anyone knows if any "upgrades" that affects qpf output has been done recently.? I know the Nam has been known to have a wet bias so, that's why with the recent happenings I'm curious. A little late to the conversation, but I thought I'd toss in an agreement. Models certainly butchered last night's storm, which caught many off-guard. Erwin easily would have had three to five inches but unfortunately is just far enough south that temperatures remained at or just above freezing the entire event. We wound up with an inch and a half, with some areas reaching two inches. You're certainly correct in saying that was not the first time this year that models haven't handled QPF very well in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0Z GFS no good for me. I don't know much, but I know when a surface low is north of me, I'm not going to get snow. And, on cue, my sounding looks awful for the little bit of precip it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My forecast and discussion have been posted at sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My forecast and discussion have been posted at sandhillswx.com You need to center your layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You need to center your layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FWIW, the NMM gives a very narrow but intense band of heavy qpf for the system tomorrow. It makes since given the dynamics are very strong with it, VV's of -40 on the NAM which is the end of the scale. Also, a 994mb low is very strong for a clipper, more like a mauler Anyways, could be a narrow band of 4-5" tomorrow, wouldn't surprise me at all. Surface temps east of Raleigh shouldn't be a problem either as the models wetbulb us to around 32 when the event starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lee side enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Should be very interesting to see how things play out tomorrow with this clipper. Already some excellent posts already by Brandon and Allan. I'm pretty much in agreement with their thoughts... showing a setup that is similar to the January 23rd, snowstorm. Its not an identical setup, as there was a bit stronger jet with the 2003 event. However, heights are actually lower with the current setup, although the 500mb low is a bit more broad. I'll try to give a more detailed assessment tomorrow in my blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 315 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091-072100- /O.NEW.KMHX.WW.Y.0001.110107T2300Z-110108T1200Z/ MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT- MAINLAND HYDE-LENOIR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE... GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON... WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...KINSTON 315 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Major props to HKY_WX! Here is the Near term AFD from GSP this AM. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RESPECTABLE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN SC THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESP OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES THE MTNS LATER THIS MORNING...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING FRONTOGENESIS/INCR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 150+ KT H3 JET STREAK. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE BAND OF E-W ORIENTED PRECIP MOVE OVER THAT REGION. WHILE MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE SITUATION OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO THE 40S...THANKS TO THE LATE PRECIP ONSET. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MTNS STARTING MAINLY AS RAIN. HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY AS PRECIP BEGINS...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW...ESP NORTH OF I-85. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR NC PIEDMONT/FHILL ZONES FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. THE DISCONCERTING ASPECT OF THIS EVENT IS THAT THERE ARE RATHER STRONG SIGNALS THAT MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF PRECIP (OWING TO MODEL DEPICTION OF AREAS OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING). THEREFORE... LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MUCH GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR (OR EVEN IF IT OCCURS WITHIN THE GSP CWA OR SOMEWHERE TO OUR EAST) IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ONCE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING... THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN MTNS AND A CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE. H8 TEMPS BY 12Z SAT WILL BE AROUND -11...THE FLOW IS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT)...MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY DEEP...AND THERE ARE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS QUITE BACKED...MORE WNW THAN TRUE NW. THEREFORE...THIS MAY NOT BE A TRUE HEAVY SNOW NW FLOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRECURSOR SNOWFALL LATER TODAY...THE ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN 24 HOUR ACCUMS MEETING OR EXCEEDING THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 5 INCHES IN AREAS FROM MADISON COUNTY SOUTH TO GRAHAM COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THESE AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nice to see GSP come on board... looks like all things are a go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Weaverville, NC obs @ 5:10 AM Light Snow is falling Temp is 30.2°. GSP has upped our totals for the clipper to 2-4 today & 1-2 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Raleigh NWS on Board. WWA up for most of FA calling for 1-2 inches. Gonna have to cool from the top-down with this one coming in late afternoon, so need some heavy precip rates.Be awesome to lay a few inches down and hold onto it until Sun/Mon, then get the Nam and GFS to verify. I'm still gung ho about a nice snow event here Sun/Mon. The pattern dictates it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tip of the hat for progging this one. Like most folks, I was looking at the approaching treasure chest and didn't see this little jewel rightin front of us. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My first call for the clipper event later today... this includes northwest snowfall for the WNC mountains afterwards. http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My first call for the clipper event later today... this includes northwest snowfall for the WNC mountains afterwards. http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html I am not a fan of this one being I will probably be just south of any real accumulation potential but it will be interesting to see how the surface layer is overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am not a fan of this one being I will probably be just south of any real accumulation potential but it will be interesting to see how the surface layer is overcome. Whoops I forgot to change maps... in my blog I went over how its going to be very difficult to judge just where the bands set up, so anywhere within that yellow circle can get under that 1-2" band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Whoops I forgot to change maps... in my blog I went over how its going to be very difficult to judge just where the bands set up, so anywhere within that yellow circle can get under that 1-2" band. Right now RAH thinks the inhanced band will set up along US 64. But as you stated we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Right now RAH thinks the inhanced band will set up along US 64. But as you stated we'll have to wait and see. Yeah...I'm not too far north of 64 so maybe I can get under that band. It looks like the 6Z GFS was a little further north...with higher qpf totals all the way to the VA border...so maybe you and me both will get under that band. This is going to be fun to watch unfold, regardless if it materializes for me or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annelovesbeck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have read the thread many times, and can't find an answer to this - Any idea for a timeline in Central NC? Taking my daughter back to college tonight in DC - hope to make it home before the roads get bad.... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Should get cranking around late evening in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah...I'm not too far north of 64 so maybe I can get under that band. It looks like the 6Z GFS was a little further north...with higher qpf totals all the way to the VA border...so maybe you and me both will get under that band. This is going to be fun to watch unfold, regardless if it materializes for me or not. Yes, it always seem we're always in that US1/64 sweet spot. Must be something about this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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