BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Date: 18 hour Eta valid 18Z FRI 7 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 -5 SFC 970 241 6.3 -2.5 53 8.9 2.6 226 13 281.9 282.5 277.2 291.1 3.27 2 950 412 3.3 -3.7 60 7.0 0.5 228 16 280.5 281.1 276.2 289.2 3.06 3 900 847 -1.1 -4.5 78 3.4 -2.4 231 18 280.4 280.9 276.2 289.0 3.05 4 850 1299 -5.1 -6.4 91 1.3 -5.6 243 21 280.8 281.2 275.9 288.6 2.77 5 800 1773 -7.8 -8.8 92 1.0 -8.1 271 32 282.8 283.3 276.6 289.9 2.45 6 750 2272 -10.1 -11.4 90 1.3 -10.5 282 46 285.6 285.9 277.6 291.8 2.13 7 700 2802 -12.6 -14.7 84 2.1 -13.2 282 54 288.5 288.8 278.5 293.7 1.74 8 650 3363 -15.9 -18.4 82 2.4 -16.5 279 61 290.9 291.2 279.1 295.2 1.38 9 600 3963 -18.8 -21.4 80 2.6 -19.4 275 65 294.4 294.6 280.4 298.0 1.15 10 550 4607 -22.1 -24.3 82 2.2 -22.5 266 66 297.9 298.1 281.8 301.0 0.97 11 500 5301 -26.2 -31.6 61 5.4 -26.9 270 73 301.1 301.2 282.5 302.9 0.55 12 450 6056 -30.1 -42.2 30 12.1 -31.2 281 85 305.4 305.5 283.8 306.2 0.21 13 400 6889 -33.2 -42.0 41 8.8 -33.9 288 122 311.9 311.9 286.3 312.8 0.24 14 350 7815 -39.1 -49.3 33 10.2 -39.7 286 136 316.0 316.0 287.6 316.5 0.12 15 300 8856 -46.3 -54.5 39 8.2 -46.6 286 145 320.1 320.1 288.9 320.4 0.08 16 250 10042 -53.7 -61.1 40 7.5 -53.8 287 137 326.3 326.3 290.7 326.4 0.04 17 200 11469 -53.3 -64.3 25 11.0 -53.5 289 94 348.4 348.4 296.3 348.6 0.03 18 150 13328 -52.8 -69.2 12 16.5 -53.2 276 62 379.2 379.2 302.1 379.3 0.02 19 100 15923 -57.8 -78.7 5 20.9 -58.2 264 47 416.0 416.0 307.3 416.1 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Well, it looks possible if we wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yea we might get something out of this looks like maybe the max precip is over wow's house. I just saw the NAM and was shocked. I haven't been paying attention to that little thing, Kudos to HKY wx. I have no idea if anything at all falls in Cleveland County, but if the meso low can form rapidly, we may sneak out something. Would be nice to have a lee trough in place also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hello.. nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'll take it. Even a small "snowpack" will help with Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just saw the NAM and was shocked. I haven't been paying attention to that little thing, Kudos to HKY wx. I have no idea if anything at all falls in Cleveland County, but if the meso low can form rapidly, we may sneak out something. Would be nice to have a lee trough in place also. yep! he sure saw this one coming composite radar images from the ruc and first part of the nam's new run look quite similar over all (although twister on the ruc only goes to 12 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just saw the NAM and was shocked. I haven't been paying attention to that little thing, Kudos to HKY wx. I have no idea if anything at all falls in Cleveland County, but if the meso low can form rapidly, we may sneak out something. Would be nice to have a lee trough in place also. Hey big guy I haven't heard back from you yet. Let me know, you can't accept PM it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is appraoching from about as favorable a position as possible for clipper snow in NC. Generally when the 500mb vort goes through southern NC and northern SC, NC get's hit pretty good. Especially with such a good jet streak. Latest 18z gfs also has a nice low over northern SC. Very good setup for a strong clipper event. I made mention of this a day or two ago but it got little response. But i've been watching it since for the possibility of some sort of meso low or localized banding. However, boundary layer conditions are going to be a potential problem. Nam looks pretty warm..too warm in fact, for most areas with surface temps in the upper 30s and low 40s with 950mb temps as high as 4c in places like charlotte as late as 0z tomorrow, while most of nc is in the 1 to 2c range at 950. That said, this might be a little overdone if there is a localized enhanced area of precip which the models will struggle with. In that area, cooling due to dynamical processes would likely drop temps enough for a changeover before ending. However, not all of the precip that is being shown will be snow..that much I am certain of..even with 850s rather low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Brandon -- how many years ago was it we watched that red on the radar just blow up over Catawba/Lincoln/Cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z NAM bows to Brandon. 996 low pops just east of GSP -- more precip over N.C. piedmont/foothills. Its a 994mb on the Plymouth site, starts in Tenn as 998. Pretty neat little feature, witha lot of 700 rh, so maybe we can get something on this side of the Apps but surface temps will have to cooperate. I'll be interested to see the GFS and its pressure, thats actually pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey big guy I haven't heard back from you yet. Let me know, you can't accept PM it says sorry I didnt' even notice I can't take PM's. I got bombed the last 2 days. I 'll clean it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Brandon -- how many years ago was it we watched that red on the radar just blow up over Catawba/Lincoln/Cleveland? Jan 23 03! Man has it been that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1/2" from a Clipper, say it ain't so Skipper!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I made mention of this a day or two ago but it got little response. But i've been watching it since for the possibility of some sort of meso low or localized banding. However, boundary layer conditions are going to be a potential problem. Nam looks pretty warm..too warm in fact, for most areas with surface temps in the upper 30s and low 40s with 950mb temps as high as 4c in places like charlotte as late as 0z tomorrow, while most of nc is in the 1 to 2c range at 950. That said, this might be a little overdone if there is a localized enhanced area of precip which the models will struggle with. In that area, cooling due to dynamical processes would likely drop temps enough for a changeover before ending. However, not all of the precip that is being shown will be snow..that much I am certain of..even with 850s rather low. yea sfc temps here start in the mid 30's. so most places will probably waste an hour or two of precip. It's hard know what to expect out of this as far as accumulations. If you put a gun to my head, i wouldn't be surprised if someone got 3-5 inches in a lucky spot.most will be 1-3 like allan said though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On the SV snow map there is a swath of 2-4 from CLT up to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man -- good times those were. I wonder if people in Catawba and Cleveland will ever again go to bed with a forecast of 1-2 and wake up with 6-10. Jan 23 03! Man has it been that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Local media is just saying flurries. Looks like people could be caught by surprise with this one tomorrow night. I was looking forward to next week myself. Hopefully, tomorrow night will just be the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man -- good times those were. I wonder if people in Catawba and Cleveland will ever again go to bed with a forecast of 1-2 and wake up with 6-10. Sunday night This run actually drops atleast 2" over most of Cleveland if the temperatures were to cooperate, but we really need a lot of luck on this side of the mtns. The 03 event was really cold to start. By the way, Nam gets nw NC and eastern TN to -15. Shelby gets to -13 or so. Very very cold, once again. I doubt we go down to 10 or 6, but mid teens is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man -- good times those were. I wonder if people in Catawba and Cleveland will ever again go to bed with a forecast of 1-2 and wake up with 6-10. I remember that storm quite vividly. Senior year of high school and I had been up studying for tests all while watching the 10 and 11 pm WBTV broadcasts. I basically said to myself I was staying up until it started snowing in my part of northern Catawba County. I had been telling some of my friends to expect some snow, and then ET comes on and says "It looks like there could be a (meso)low trying to form near the South Mtns". Finally saw some flakes falling and decided to call it a night. Wake up at 6 and get to see some of the fluffiest snow I have ever seen in NC with the wind howling and forming drifts. It reminded me of something seen out in the Midwest with how the snow had blown around and drifted up. Measured between 8 - 12 inches depending on where I stuck the ruler, so I finally settled on an 8 to 9 inch total. Best surprise I ever had for snow in high school. Anyway, end of my little story, time to let the mets discuss this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yea sfc temps here start in the mid 30's. so most places will probably waste an hour or two of precip. It's hard know what to expect out of this as far as accumulations. If you put a gun to my head, i wouldn't be surprised if someone got 3-5 inches in a lucky spot.most will be 1-3 like allan said though. In hickory yes, but most areas start out a good bit warmer than that. The surface temp is not the only problem though, it's the fact the surface warm layer is rather deep..almost up to 925mb. (even up to 900mb at charlotte) Considering this is going to be a very quick shot, that's a problem if you want good accumulation. If you look at the 3 hour nam reflectivity images, you will see this lasts at most 4 or 5 hours or so. So losing 2 hours to cooling the boundary layer, you end up with only 0.10 to 0.15 at best liquid as snow in most areas...and not all of that will stick at first. So Given the time of day, initial boundary layer conditions, and the very quick nature of it. I think most will be very lucky to get an inch while the sweet spots might pick up 2 or 3 but the above factors really make me think that is a best case scenario and will be very localized. If the timing of this was just a little earlier, it would be an entirely different ball game. It just happens to move through at just about the worst possible time (especially western half, maybe eastern half will benefit from the later start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is becoming obvious that the vort max tomorrow evening/early nighttime is going to provide a nice 4-6 hour window of precip tomorrow with perhaps a 1-3 inch snow event east of the mountains along I-40 from HKY to RDU and perhaps towards the coastal plain. The 00z NAM is now beefing up its numbers bit. One of our in-house models is even more agressive with a 0.5 inch areas from HKY to RDU. That is probably too agressive, but there been impressive trends with the vort track and 700mb omega in recent runs with this system. Bring it to the coast baby...bring it to the coast! We'll be forever thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Local media is just saying flurries. Looks like people could be caught by surprise with this one tomorrow night. I was looking forward to next week myself. Hopefully, tomorrow night will just be the warm up. No they won't. It'll be too warm to accumulate much and I can see the precip being spotty and limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the NAM model soundings we have a warm boundary layer problem by me. If we can get rid of that via precip rate quickly we could see a little snow. Verbatim the model does not show that happening until we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the NAM model soundings we have a warm boundary layer problem by me. If we can get rid of that via precip rate quickly we could see a little snow. Verbatim the model does not show that happening until we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. This is the problem. People see the 0 degree 850 line and think it's all snow. It's not. There are so many things that can go wrong (and they do go wrong). Precip arrives early and leaves even earlier. Breaks in the clouds. Unexpected warm noses. You name it, it happens. Outside the foothills and far northern NC, I don't think anybody is really going to get much more than a dusting, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is the problem. People see the 0 degree 850 line and think it's all snow. It's not. There are so many things that can go wrong (and they do go wrong). Precip arrives early and leaves even earlier. Breaks in the clouds. Unexpected warm noses. You name it, it happens. Outside the foothills and far northern NC, I don't think anybody is really going to get much more than a dusting, if that. eastern NC benefits from the sun going down it appears to me.... and is reflected upon on the NAM snow accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 eastern NC benefits from the sun going down it appears to me.... and is reflected upon on the NAM snow accumulation map Isn't that always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Isn't that always the case. That is generally how the passage of time works, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is the problem. People see the 0 degree 850 line and think it's all snow. It's not. There are so many things that can go wrong (and they do go wrong). Precip arrives early and leaves even earlier. Breaks in the clouds. Unexpected warm noses. You name it, it happens. Outside the foothills and far northern NC, I don't think anybody is really going to get much more than a dusting, if that. OK, this is my first ever post on this site, which I've generally enjoyed for several months now, first as a guest, and then as a member, but just observing and reading. But, dude, you are the worst Debbie Downer I've seen on this site. All you do is gripe and complain and talk about how "x" won't or can't happen. Give it a rest. If you don't enjoy this stuff, go post on some complainer blog. I'm beginning to hope that the bright sun shines on your house all day long every day so that you can always get the "no snow" that you think is going to happen. Mods, I apologize for my outburst, and I'll go back to reading for another long period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That is generally how the passage of time works, yes. No, that some magic factor comes in and allows the coastal plain to get hammered after central NC gets screwed. Isn't it interesting how in construction, hammering and screwing are nearly the same thing, but in weather and elsewhere, they are opposites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, that some magic factor comes in and allows the coastal plain to get hammered after central NC gets screwed. Isn't it interesting how in construction, hammering and screwing are nearly the same thing, but in weather and elsewhere, they are opposites? Never thought about it.... you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OK, this is my first ever post on this site, which I've generally enjoyed for several months now, first as a guest, and then as a member, but just observing and reading. But, dude, you are the worst Debbie Downer I've seen on this site. All you do is gripe and complain and talk about how "x" won't or can't happen. Give it a rest. If you don't enjoy this stuff, go post on some complainer blog. I'm beginning to hope that the bright sun shines on your house all day long every day so that you can always get the "no snow" that you think is going to happen. Mods, I apologize for my outburst, and I'll go back to reading for another long period... lol This is one of the things I live for here. Before every storm, there is always at least one lurker who congeals out of the woodwork to tell me how annoying and wrong I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.