HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is appraoching from about as favorable a position as possible for clipper snow in NC. Generally when the 500mb vort goes through southern NC and northern SC, NC get's hit pretty good. Especially with such a good jet streak. Latest 18z gfs also has a nice low over northern SC. Very good setup for a strong clipper event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes it does! This is appraoching from about as favorable a position as possible for clipper snow in central NC. Generally when the 500mb vort goes through southern NC and northern SC, NC get's hit pretty good. Especially with such a good jet streak. Latest 18z gfs also has a nice low over northern SC. Very good setup for a strong clipper event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, the 18Z GFS puts down quite a stripe of qpf across NC tomorrow night, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 this run of the gfs is probably a solid 2 or 3 inches in raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like arounf .3 liquid for some areas north and east of Raleigh. Somebody might get 2-3 inches of snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 this run of the gfs is probably a solid 2 or 3 inches in raleigh. Surface temps would probably temper accumulations. I would guess around an inch, maybe 2 if it overperforms a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The pressure on the surface for this low is quite impressive as well. Looks like a "mini-bomb". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like arounf .3 liquid for some areas north and east of Raleigh. Somebody might get 2-3 inches of snow!!! 12z GFS put down a little over 0.3" liquid at RDU and here, so there is some continuity, however a disconnect with the 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not too excited about it in my backyard. It does look good north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The euro is a bit further south than the gfs with the shortwave. So we still have a little room to see this go a bit further south. That is important as it helps draw in just a bit more moisture. Especially with a weak sfc reflection over northern SC. This is a very interesting setup. Could easily result in an enhanced band somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Surface temps would probably temper accumulations. I would guess around an inch, maybe 2 if it overperforms a bit. Sfc looks pretty cold from just looking at raw text data. Starts at 35 and falls to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sfc looks pretty cold from just looking at raw text data. Starts at 35 and falls to 30. Just seems like unless you get some really heavy rates 10:1 ratios are never realized unless you are below freezing to start. Melting and such initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GFS SN map, new and improved from RaleighWX... dark green is 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GFS SN map, new and improved from RaleighWX... dark green is 3-4" That would certainly be a pleasant surprise but I'll keep my emotions in check until at least the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z GFS put down a little over 0.3" liquid at RDU and here, so there is some continuity, however a disconnect with the 18z NAM... Don't know what is causing the problem with the NAM's qpf output for the area along the KY/VA border. This area generally gets some of the highest totals from NW flow events. Just look at the radar during these, let alone obs. The above depiction clearly shows the upslope enhancement along the Tn/Nc border and in West Va but clearly ignores the favored SE,KY/SWVA area.??? Both the NAM and GFS have under forecasted qpf during every snow event this season thus far. Just yesterday for example, both had just a few hundredths total qpf for much of East Tn . Many area received a quarter inch or better with upwards of 3 inches of snow. I know the models probably get less data ingested in them from this area and also the terrain has it's effects but, it seems this problem has been more prevalent of late. I'm curious if anyone knows if any "upgrades" that affects qpf output has been done recently.? I know the Nam has been known to have a wet bias so, that's why with the recent happenings I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 this run of the gfs is probably a solid 2 or 3 inches in raleigh. Thanks for the thread Brandon, I've been ignoring the clipper so far and just paying attention to next week...good to know. Looks like we could get a good snow after all out of this system...we all know how the other clipper was handled here and what we got. Looks like Wake Co. definitely has the possibility of 3"...going to WVU for my girlfriends Pharmacy School interview so I won't be here, but I'll be back in time for the system on the 11th! 18z GFS I took this picture on I-540 from the 12/4 clipper system that over performed: I know taking photos while driving isn't the best, but I was going really slow in the slow lane so I took my precautions Visibility was lacking here, nice flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I remember that clipper. It really over-preformed. I got 2.5". For this clipper though, I am thinking around an inch in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not excited at all. The NAM is disconcerting. The south trend is disconcerting. Even the set up is good for, at best, a dusting. I've seen this kind of thing before and all we end up getting is screwed. I'm sure we'll see a short period of light snow some time tomorrow night, maybe enough to make the tips of the grass white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not excited at all. The NAM is disconcerting. The south trend is disconcerting. Even the set up is good for, at best, a dusting. I've seen this kind of thing before and all we end up getting is screwed. I'm sure we'll see a short period of light snow some time tomorrow night, maybe enough to make the tips of the grass white. I can't believe you are so pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I can't believe you are so pessimistic Why not? He does it every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not excited at all. The NAM is disconcerting. The south trend is disconcerting. Even the set up is good for, at best, a dusting. I've seen this kind of thing before and all we end up getting is screwed. I'm sure we'll see a short period of light snow some time tomorrow night, maybe enough to make the tips of the grass white. You do this every time we get a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You do this every time we get a good event. I'm sure you'll get a good event. You seem to get 8" every time a snow shower moves through. Back in Chapel Hill, it can snow for hours on end and accumulate to maybe an inch or two. That's assuming, of course, it actually snows for more than 15 minutes at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm sure you'll get a good event. You see to get 8" every time a snow shower moves through. Back in Chapel Hill, it can snow for hours on end and accumulate to maybe an inch or two. That's assuming, of course, it actually snows for more than 15 minutes at a time. lol whatever. you freaked out during the last storm and still got 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol whatever. you freaked out during the last storm and still got 6+ inches. I got 3-4" if you measured away from the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 all that hot air in Chapel Hill melted it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I got less snow than anyone on this board! The Christmas day storm I put a measuring stick out then I put an umbrella over the measuring stick, then I shoveled all the snow away from the umbrella to get my measurement and guess what I got nothing! What is wrong with my area we just seem like we can't get a measurable snow! Everyone around me got 6 or 7 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z NAM bows to Brandon. 996 low pops just east of GSP -- more precip over N.C. piedmont/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is becoming obvious that the vort max tomorrow evening/early nighttime is going to provide a nice 4-6 hour window of precip tomorrow with perhaps a 1-3 inch snow event east of the mountains along I-40 from HKY to RDU and perhaps towards the coastal plain. The 00z NAM is now beefing up its numbers bit. One of our in-house models is even more agressive with a 0.5 inch areas from HKY to RDU. That is probably too agressive, but there been impressive trends with the vort track and 700mb omega in recent runs with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yea we might get something out of this looks like maybe the max precip is over wow's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z NAM bows to Brandon. 996 low pops just east of GSP -- more precip over N.C. piedmont/foothills. me and allan have been texting about this today. it's a great clipper setup. if sfc temps cooperate, this will be a nice little event.. NWS will be playing catch up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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