am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Those 5 or 6 members must be super wound-up because the mean is well NW of the operational. I only have the 528dam and 552dam spag lines, but, yeah, I'd bet they are a good bit more wrapped up than the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Those 5 or 6 members must be super wound-up because the mean is well NW of the operational. wouldnt have to be much to move the mean a lot because the GFS op washes everything out and has just a weak SLP OTS with an inverted trough type setup hanging back. That OTS low is not what we need to move, we need the H5 to not wash out and cause redevelopment in closer to the coast. I suspect like the euro ensembles have a cluster, the GFS has a cluster that shows that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wouldnt have to be much to move the mean a lot because the GFS op washes everything out and has just a weak SLP OTS with an inverted trough type setup hanging back. That OTS low is not what we need to move, we need the H5 to not wash out and cause redevelopment in closer to the coast. I suspect like the euro ensembles have a cluster, the GFS has a cluster that shows that as well. This seems to be what the 18z DGEX does; it moves the low due north and redevelops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The window is small and shrinking for those wanting a decent storm except maybe nc. It's the story of this year for the dc snow hole. Looks a lot like the dec 19th non-event. wow bold call, so are you on the record saying this storm is a big miss next week? Or am I understanding you incorrectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean doesn't agree with the op. More northwest. The 18z op took an 850 low into the OH Valley, then rapidly transfered it to the coast through PA, and off the NE coast between 126 and 138 hrs (Miller B Hybrid type deal). Given the EC has been consistent in taking a weak 850 off the SE coast around ILM in a semi-true A fashion, this model (GFS) is still struggling with a bias of dampening and shearing out the southern stream in the confluent flow to quickly. We saw this leading up to the Boxing day blizzard in the way the global handled the southern stream, and it looks to be repeating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think what he meant by it, is that there is a small window to get all the players to come together correctly...but then again it is always a small window...these are complex interactions.... wow bold call, so are you on the record saying this storm is a big miss next week? Or am I understanding you incorrectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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