am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is rolling folks. Through 36, it is still showing the inverted trough setting up somewhere near the NYC Metro. 3:51p EDIT: I can't believe no one called me out for using 2010 as the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 By 42, the inverted trough is in W Mass/E CT. Rates are less than an inch an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like it is backing off the jackpot area of 6-10+ it was showing from LI through the Lower Hudson Valley. Still a nice 1-3+ area wide though for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 48, Upper Hudson Valley still looks like the big winner, verbatim. Almost an inch of liquid toward Saranac Lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Also, looking like our Canadian friends in Ottawa will see a good 4-6 inches out of this. Long lasting light snows up across the St. Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 66, the southern stream is shortwave is slower and more amplified in TX compared to 72 in the 12z GFS. That would be a good thing, I guess, for the MA and NE. You know, if it weren't the 66 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 66, the southern stream is shortwave is slower and more amplified in TX compared to 72 in the 12z GFS. That would be a good thing, I guess, for the MA and NE. You know, if it weren't the 66 hr NAM. Yep, been all over the NAM since last night with this (yes, I know its beyond 48 hours)...it has consistently been more amplified and stronger with the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep, been all over the NAM since last night with this (yes, I know its beyond 48 hours)...it has consistently been more amplified and stronger with the southern vort. Seems much stronger even that 6z at the same time (72 from the 18z). PV a little further NE, a little higher heights in the east (or at least the MA). Precip def. much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The vorticity is stronger over the Rockies, too, though. All else being equal, that would lead to a slower ejection on Monday. Of course, extrapolating models is a set up for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very little difference in the 18z GFS through 60 hours. Northeastern NC gets a surprise 3-5 tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The vorticity is stronger over the Rockies, too, though. All else being equal, that would lead to a slower ejection on Monday. Of course, extrapolating models is a set up for failure. I don't like the monster vortex that still has to move out of the east for next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Extrapolation is always dangerous but at 78hr the trough in the west is a little stronger and looks more consolidated so I think it may end up being a little better than the last run, famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Extrapolation is always dangerous but at 78hr the trough in the west is a little stronger and looks more consolidated so I think it may end up being a little better than the last run, famous last words. Yeah, by 102, it's a bit more amped up across the Plains. Looks like a decent snow event for them out in KS/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 In fact, it's so amped up that you get a closed sfc low in TN by 114. This is going to be a way different solution than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is almost no energy transfer. Ends up being a light to moderate event across most of the East through 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What an ugly run of the GFS. Hardly any QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is almost no energy transfer. Ends up being a light to moderate event across most of the East through 132. Yep, the second shortwave shears as it comes east. No real jet feeding into it and plenty of jet ot its south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What an ugly run of the GFS. Hardly any QPF Relax. Models wiill have dramatic changes tonight and tomorrow as they have better data to digest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What an ugly run of the GFS. Hardly any QPF We'd get our inch for what that is worth. Look similar to all the other events for us this year but this doesn't look anything like the dec 26 event so it doesn't look like the northeast would do that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The western trough was way too slow this run and couldn't save the weak low level circulation near the GOM once that southern wave precipitates itself out through rapid height rises. The window here is tiny for coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The western trough was way too slow this run and couldn't save the weak low level circulation near the GOM once that southern wave precipitates itself out through rapid height rises. The window here is tiny for coastal development. The window is small and shrinking for those wanting a decent storm except maybe nc. It's the story of this year for the dc snow hole. Looks a lot like the dec 19th non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What an ugly run of the GFS. Hardly any QPF Theoretically the actaul run might be better for us thsn 12Z and least we get some energy from the OV wave/trough whatever...But yeah Coastal is worse off than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The window is small and shrinking for those wanting a decent storm except maybe nc. It's the story of this year for the dc snow hole. Looks a lot like the dec 19th non-event. I am pulling for DC/BA sometime this winter. Long ways to go yet. But yeah, it all these events have had some similarities, agreed. The presence of a weak southern stream and sort of dependence upon the GOM has been the story to some degree with each threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Say hi to the Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Say hi to the Nogaps This is gonna sound really weenie-ish, but it's a huge red flag that the NOGAPS is northwest. Usually it's the model that's the most suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean doesn't agree with the op. More northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I suppose the good news is that there are 5 or 6 GEFS members more amplified than the ops, which would probably imply a stronger system. But that also means there are 14 or 15 members that are equal or less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I suppose the good news is that there are 5 or 6 GEFS members more amplified than the ops, which would probably imply a stronger system. But that also means there are 14 or 15 members that are equal or less amplified. one good thing is with a 1045 high sitting in the middle of the country we do not need an incredibly deep SLP to get the gradient needed for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I suppose the good news is that there are 5 or 6 GEFS members more amplified than the ops, which would probably imply a stronger system. But that also means there are 14 or 15 members that are equal or less amplified. Those 5 or 6 members must be super wound-up because the mean is well NW of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is gonna sound really weenie-ish, but it's a huge red flag that the NOGAPS is northwest. Usually it's the model that's the most suppressed. It would be more of a red flag if we were closer to the event...like 3 days out or so. The NOGAPS is pretty useless beyond that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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