Jet-Phase Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The surface low actually tracks northeast from that point and deepens rapidly. It winds up east of Boston and off the Cape. That's a snow track for the I-95 corridor. It might be a dryslot type situation for Eastern Long Island..but the cold flow to the north and the strong dynamic cooling underway would keep that all snow for the big cities in all likelihood. This is all a moot point, though..the solution will change in 6 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_0zA/f132.gif How do you think this set-up and surface map compares to the set-up of the 1983, 1996 and 2006 storms as outlined on the attached link? http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/Snow%20Storm%2002-11-2006%20Project/Snow%20Storm%2002-11-2006%20STORM%20COMPARISON%20PAGE.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The surface low actually tracks northeast from that point and deepens rapidly. It winds up east of Boston and off the Cape. That's a snow track for the I-95 corridor. It might be a dryslot type situation for Eastern Long Island..but the cold flow to the north and the strong dynamic cooling underway would keep that all snow for the big cities in all likelihood. This is all a moot point, though..the solution will change in 6 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_0zA/f132.gif But just imagine, with a low that close to the Coast, and still enough cold air for the I-95 cities, it just shows how much of an effect the confluence and anomalous blocking has on this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I never really understood what "immediate beach" meant. What's the distance with that? I remember last year while driving around in one of the borderline events where it sleeted right near the beaches but 1 mile inland was snow, so I'm gonna guess that would be the distance Great point. Even with the primary as far north as the GGEM has it--most areas away from probably the immediate beach will remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The surface low actually tracks northeast from that point and deepens rapidly. It winds up east of Boston and off the Cape. That's a snow track for the I-95 corridor. It might be a dryslot type situation for Eastern Long Island..but the cold flow to the north and the strong dynamic cooling underway would keep that all snow for the big cities in all likelihood. This is all a moot point, though..the solution will change in 6 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_0zA/f132.gif If that's the case then it likely saves us, since fast deepening lows near our latitude are very often bonanzas unless they track almost directly over you. Still something to watch though on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 through hr 72 the 50/50 is further north...more ridging out ahead of the s/w iin the plains..northern stream digging a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro is more amplified with the shortwave out of the southern stream through 72 hours..and also better positioned with the shortwave diving southeast into the Western US out of the Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 every run of the euro it shows snow further and further south 2/3 s of the states of la.miss.ala,ga are snow or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Much more amplified entirely at 84 hours. Not sure exactly what this run is going to do...but it certainty has all the pieces in place to bring the low closer to the coast than 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 84, northern stream starting to dreally dig..continued hgr hgts out in front of it poking up into mn...s/w is stronger, also hgr hgts along east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's also a good bit faster with the shortwave coming into the Plains now through 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 96 northern stream continiues to dig harder than 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Northern stream/Pac SW is coming in fast now at 96 hours..let's see if we can pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man, this is going to be really close. It seems like the northern stream is lagging just a hair..and I mean literally a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Northern stream/Pac SW is coming in fast now at 96 hours..let's see if we can pull this off. very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here are the latest HI-RES models: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's really trying at 108 hours..surface low is tucked in off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 108 has a sub 1012 low just sse of cape fear...northern stream is really digging in..lgt precip from about dc south,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 114 sub 1008 low just south of hse...lgt to mnod precip eastern nc and se va... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On the outer banks at 114 hours..much better than 12z but it's going to be close. It's really trying to get it towards a GGEM and/or DGEX type solution. The trend continues more amplified, that much we can say now. But where it goes from here is uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 114 sub 1008 low just south of hse...lgt to mnod precip eastern nc and se va... Is hse hatteras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 120 sub 1004 low about 100 miles ene of hse.,.. lgt precip up to pa turnpike lgt to mod precip over delmarva, se va , enc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is hse hatteras? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I never really understood what "immediate beach" meant. What's the distance with that? I remember last year while driving around in one of the borderline events where it sleeted right near the beaches but 1 mile inland was snow, so I'm gonna guess that would be the distance Yeah, I remember with one of the storms last year, JM was mixing for a few hours while it was all snow here and Im only 2 miles north of him.... but it didnt matter in the end because when the heavier rates came everyone switched over to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 120 hours the surface low has moved northeast from there..it's now northeast of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 baby steps thanks again tombo for the play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 EC Day 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Heading towards the benchmark now at 126 hours...huge hit for OC MD, Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 126 sub 1000 low bout 200 miles east of lewes del...mod precip over southern jerz and delmarva...lgt to mod back to phl to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's about 100 miles northwest of it's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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