daxx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem at hour 120 slams us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's the GGEM..wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem at hour 120 slams us!!! Great to see, and if it's a bit warm for some, the GGEM isn't the best model for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GEFS in line with the GGEM/NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 like tombo mentioned, verbatim that is not all snow.... ggem at hour 120 slams us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 120 hour 0z ensembles mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's the next frame at 132 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'll take my chances with a coastal hugger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 like tombo mentioned, verbatim that is not all snow.... The CMC is not a good model when it comes to temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's a graphical depiction of the GGEM at 120 hrs, looks like a keeper to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's the GGEM..wow. Yikes, coast hugger. I still think it's definitely an option on the table and wouldn't be shocked to see the models collectively lurch back to it in the future. Our big snow here all depends on the degree of the confluence over SE Canada and the ridge over central Canada. If that begins to weaken or head east too fast, there's little to stop it from hugging the coast or even having more of an inland reflection if the phasing takes place. PTB and PSUHazletonWx are still in the game for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The CMC is not a good model when it comes to temps its pointless to argue over the temps right now...but yea the ggem is not great with temps, but what its showing, its not all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hour 132 ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its pointless to argue over the temps right now...but yea the ggem is not great with temps, but what its showing, its not all snow... I saw a precip-type map in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7460-nyc-regional-discussion-for-jan-11-14/page__st__60 Looks good when it is heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 heres the ggem at hr 120, looks good for some people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem at hour 120 slams us!!! Maybe for York/Harrisburg sure, but for Philly and I-95, it's quick snow to rain. A low over Cape May is never good for I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Maybe for York/Harrisburg sure, but for Philly and I-95, it's quick snow to rain. A low over Cape May is never good for I-95 and east. You'd think it might, but that's not what the precip map says. The coast gets rain, but looks like it brings its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Merged the threads for now. Like I said, it was just an experiment. They maybe seperated again as we get closer to the event. Especially if it gets too crowded in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i was wondering what happened when i was trying to post...anyways glad to see your nyc guys back again lol...heres ggem ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not saying it can't change to rain, but with all this blocking, it's been a few years since we (I-95) have had to worry about that. I'm still more concerned about an OTS solution at this point. I'll take my chances with p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some of the Mets in the 0z Model discussion thread discussed the confluence to the NE and its placement conducive for cold air filtering, even with a low track that close, especially on the Gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Maybe for York/Harrisburg sure, but for Philly and I-95, it's quick snow to rain. A low over Cape May is never good for I-95 and east. Uh no. That is snow in Philly http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro should be real interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 alrighty euro is initializing, lets see if it trends towards the gfs ens and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some of the Mets in the 0z Model discussion thread discussed the confluence to the NE and its placement conducive for cold air filtering, even with a low track that close, especially on the Gem. Great point. Even with the primary as far north as the GGEM has it--most areas away from probably the immediate beach will remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Uh no. That is snow in Philly http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html With a low track like that, it would be very hard to keep it snow over I-95. I can't remember the last time we've had a low on top of Cape May and still have all snow for NYC and PHL, not to mention an ugly dryslot. This might be the time it's different, but I would never want a low sitting there if I wanted all snow without a dryslot staring me right in the face. The GGEM doesn't have the greatest track record though, so I wouldn't concern myself too much with the solution at this stage (or really any solution). It's just a solution that's on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As I have stated before, that storm has a much better chance of a coastal hugger than an out to sea solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 With a low track like that, it would be very hard to keep it snow over I-95. I can't remember the last time we've had a low on top of Cape May and still have all snow for NYC and PHL, not to mention an ugly dryslot. This might be the time it's different, but I would never want a low sitting there if I wanted all snow without a dryslot staring me right in the face. The GGEM doesn't have the greatest track record though, so I wouldn't concern myself too much with the solution at this stage (or really any solution). It's just a solution that's on the table right now. The surface low actually tracks northeast from that point and deepens rapidly. It winds up east of Boston and off the Cape. That's a snow track for the I-95 corridor. It might be a dryslot type situation for Eastern Long Island..but the cold flow to the north and the strong dynamic cooling underway would keep that all snow for the big cities in all likelihood. This is all a moot point, though..the solution will change in 6 hours. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great point. Even with the primary as far north as the GGEM has it--most areas away from probably the immediate beach will remain all snow. Yeah as Forky said, "there is enough confluence NE of us to not really worry me. you have to look at more than just the low track," as well as Storm at Sea, "In the last two winters, temperatures have NOT been an issue with the blocking in place for the I-95. I suspect that we will have a continuation of this tendency......" So, I guess there is evidence that Cold air will be present even with a low that close, also agreeing with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 With a low track like that, it would be very hard to keep it snow over I-95. I can't remember the last time we've had a low on top of Cape May and still have all snow for NYC and PHL, not to mention an ugly dryslot. This might be the time it's different, but I would never want a low sitting there if I wanted all snow without a dryslot staring me right in the face. The GGEM doesn't have the greatest track record though, so I wouldn't concern myself too much with the solution at this stage (or really any solution). It's just a solution that's on the table right now. 2/10/10 was pretty close IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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