tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like it just grazes the coast for the coastal, while the rest of us get the ULL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks roughly 100 mi west of 18z at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just bizzare looking. There's some energy on the backside that really broadens the trough. There's enough amplification ahead of the main energy that gets the coastal to actually come up the coast a bit. Still have time to see some phasing with those energies because by 120 the backside energy is actually gaining and if those two phase we can see the 500mb low amplify and get a nice coastal. The southern stream energy pretty much dissipates, but it appears we can still get a pretty nice storm with the energy in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Still just barely a whiff. Better, though. yeah its alot better for places like dc/baltimore and prob gets us close to low end warnning snowfall.....its seems at its closes point to the coast by hse in moves ene from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks roughly 100 mi west of 18z at 114. yea its deff west, it looked good then the northern stream just stops digging and it misses the phase and escapes ots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs hangs another inverted trof back into the area giving an extended period of lgt precip through hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 basically the gfs has lgt to occasionally mod precip over the area for over 40 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs hangs another inverted trof back into the area giving an extended period of lgt precip through hr 144 It seems slightly better than 18z precip-wise. Maybe a light-mod event is the worst we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 how far west does that precip shield go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 how far west does that precip shield go? through all of pa it has lgt precip, then later in the panels when its more inverted trof focused its mainly from your area east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Dear Lord there is still precip at hour 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good news - the odds of getting some snow are increasing since upper low will pass nearby and coastal will through back moisture.. Bad news the odds of a big storm are decreasing since upper low is trending weaker as it gets forced under 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its coming around....would be a mod event verbatim. there seems to be two attempts at phasing, one early...then again as it gets to the coast but its marginal. looking at 500mb 0z GFS, hr 54 hr 60 theres a partial phase but the northern stream kicks or pinwheels the southern stream ahead. hr 84 the southern wave is gone...then the northern wave just kinda settles down over the rockies and gains energy. then by hr 102 hr 108, it kinda flattens out as it slowly moves E. the problem then is from hr 114-126, Canada is flat....almost seems it was shut off. tiny pieces try to eject down from the GL, but its not enough. we get a decent event, qpf maps do show a common head, albeit weak but much better than 18z and 12z thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs going with below zero lows from hr 288 on...hr 324 has -5 temps for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wat? some places can recieve precip for 40+hrs towards end of run...interesting. seems the Ull hangs back, stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs going with below zero lows from hr 288 on...hr 324 has -5 temps for the region Great- get a little bit of snow and release the arctic hounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 120 hrs on the 00z Nogaps 6 runs in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_132m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Still just barely a whiff. Better, though. Ensembles will be interesting. If they show a further west track again it's a red flag IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great- get a little bit of snow and release the arctic hounds! And the run ends with a hit from a coastal. Good run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 basically the gfs has lgt to occasionally mod precip over the area for over 40 hrs.... Well, that rarely happens in the winter in our area. My (weenie) hunch is energy will become more focused in a single event, but the GFS is having a hard time figuring out which piece of energy to focus on ... hence the long duration event. Plenty of time to hammer out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nogaps is also coming up the coast at 120..very wrapped up. 992 off Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS Ensemble mean is actually northwest of the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 126 hours the GEFS means are inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z gfs ens are way closer to the coast, basically alomost a coastal hugger or about 50-100 miles off the coast. It shoots one low up to ky area then the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM =nogaps but weaker with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM is a hiit as well..surface low is tucked in off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 At 126 hours the GEFS means are inside the benchmark I find this 500 mb pattern interesting. There is little amplification trough wise but there is one potent vorticity progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem, is now a coastal hugger hits the area hard, but deff precip issues for phl and sourrounding areas on east and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem, is now a coastal hugger hits the area hard, but deff precip issues for phl and sourrounding areas on east and south If ECM/UKMET at least show a light/mod like the GFS, then we're in a nice spot at 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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