mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS now has a nice overrunning event after the storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah...same thing further south. I lived in Folsom/Hammonton area (interior Srn NJ) at that time, and we totally cashed in that winter too. I believe we were up over 50" total. You guys had like 3-4 storms with 10 inches of more snow, I think. Usually when it changes over on the central Jersey Coast, we follow within 30 min. I remember when the sleet line had gotten to Monmouth in March 1993, I knew we were doomed. 10 min after I heard it was sleeting there on TV, I heard the wind blown pings here and I was like, oh **** the party's over now lol. That was the first 10 inch storm here since 1983 (the big 22 incher), and it had to get beaten down by that. Our actual first all snow storm of 10 inches or more since Feb 83 was Jan 96, also 22 inches, so its been feast or famine for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 qpf totals nyc .75-.85 phl .65-.75 dc .5 balt .5 looks good and I think the Euro has this right as it's finally in line with the ensembles and stronger 500mb low w/ capture I'm not sure 4-8 inch storms happen anymore...its either 1-3 or 12-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Why should this storm be any different. You want snow head East young man, head east. Coastal huggers with rain/snow lines near 95 are thing of the long past. Boy are you counting your chickens before they hatch. Way to early to say this storm will not have a mix. the 95 mixers will return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Every year? please we want 3 or 4 a year now and at least one over 20" Exactly. NYC did not record a 12" snowfall between February 1983 and March 1993. That's 10 years for an event we now seem to expect every year. We have been massively lucky since 08-09, and really since 00-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's statements like this that truly indicate how spoiled we've been over the past few years. Before that, getting 12" from a storm would have been amazing, no one would have complained. Now, 12" just isn't good enough, it's got to be 20". I could only imagine if things reverse back to the 1980s where a 12" snow event was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. People would probably lose their minds. Its extraordinarily difficult to pull off an area wide 20" storm anyway-- the last time it happened was Jan 1996 and I think that's the only time it's happened in my lifetime (or memory anyway lol.) We should be happy-- really happy-- if we just get one 10" storm each year. Of course, human nature being what it is, it's hard not feeling disappointed when you get a foot and someone 20 miles away gets over two feet (a la Feb 2006.) It feels like you missed your one opportunity because those kinds of events are supposed to be so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, this run of the GFS is just rediculous. The way these models are looking we may actually be sick of snow by the time we are done with this winter. This may be too much of a good thing. This is very much reminiscent of the 1993-1994 winter. You better all buy your driveway ice melter now before it is too late and the stores start running out, and I doubt that most towns are well enough equipped and stocked up with salt to handle what we may be looking at with all of the budget cutting that has been done lately. Good luck to all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS now has a nice overrunning event after the storm next week. GFS has a parade of storms in the long range. Looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You guys had like 3-4 storms with 10 inches of more snow, I think. Usually when it changes over on the central Jersey Coast, we follow within 30 min. I remember when the sleet line had gotten to Monmouth in March 1993, I knew we were doomed. 10 min after I heard it was sleeting there on TV, I heard the wind blown pings here and I was like, oh **** the party's over now lol. That was the first 10 inch storm here since 1983 (the big 22 incher), and it had to get beaten down by that. Our actual first all snow storm of 10 inches or more since Feb 83 was Jan 96, also 22 inches, so its been feast or famine for sure. Yes. I know how you feel. I remember living down there and as soon as the local obs for Millville had a changeover, I'd get that sinking feeling because odds were, we'd be in the same boat within a half hour. The chuckwagon sure has been frequenting town for us the last 2 years, though-no doubt. It's strange to look back and realize the storms we've gotten the past 2 seasons used to take a decade or more to accumulate that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The question is, what the heck is causing this, it is just bizarre. Why should this storm be any different. You want snow head East young man, head east. Coastal huggers with rain/snow lines near 95 are thing of the long past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, this run of the GFS is just rediculous. The way these models are looking we may actually be sick of snow by the time we are done with this winter. This may be too much of a good thing. This is very much reminiscent of the 1993-1994 winter. You better all buy your driveway ice melter now before it is too late and the stores start running out, and I doubt that most towns are well enough equipped and stocked up with salt to handle what we may be looking at with all of the budget cutting that has been done lately. Good luck to all of us. 1993-94 with more blocking (or any nao blocking, period lol) would probably have staved off any mixing issues and would have given us 100 inches of snow lol. That coupled with the cold, would rival the greatest winters of all time for the NYC/Philly area-- going back through the PA weather book-- looks like they were back in the 1830s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The question is, what the heck is causing this, it is just bizarre. Massive -NAO/-AO pattern forcing the storm track south, even in a strong Niña. Probably due to the solar minimum though no one can say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, this run of the GFS is just rediculous. The way these models are looking we may actually be sick of snow by the time we are done with this winter. This may be too much of a good thing. This is very much reminiscent of the 1993-1994 winter. You better all buy your driveway ice melter now before it is too late and the stores start running out, and I doubt that most towns are well enough equipped and stocked up with salt to handle what we may be looking at with all of the budget cutting that has been done lately. Good luck to all of us. what does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep, the GFS is actually reasonable and very close to seasonal climatology imo. Greenland-ish block. Miller A. Dry slotting will probably be a concern for South Jersey into DCA and PHL this run verbatim. 4-6" warning criteria storm....I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Massive -NAO/-AO pattern forcing the storm track south, even in a strong Niña. Probably due to the solar minimum though no one can say for sure. We're going to also have to look at the magnetic field option-- although, how likely is that, since its been ongoing for a number of years now. Maybe it had some kind of stratospheric effect since we know it can also influence the ozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From what the models are showing, we are about to do just that. 1993-94 with more blocking (or any nao blocking, period lol) would probably have staved off any mixing issues and would have given us 100 inches of snow lol. That coupled with the cold, would rival the greatest winters of all time for the NYC/Philly area-- going back through the PA weather book-- looks like they were back in the 1830s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would really be surprised if this does not trend closer to the coast with time...i really believe this will be a significant storm for those inland a ways - 6" + (and they are due! Tamaqua and State College included) I do think there will be mixing issues in coastal spots and LI which could hold down accumulations their a tad...but all in all I expect this to be a great hit for almost everyone within the Philly/NYC area. Enjoy! Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snow every 3 days or so for the entire run and I assume the rest of the winter. This is what happened in 1993-1994, so I know it can happen. I swore after that winter that if that ever happened again I would move somewhere warm. That winter even made snow lovers hate snow. what does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its extraordinarily difficult to pull off an area wide 20" storm anyway-- the last time it happened was Jan 1996 and I think that's the only time it's happened in my lifetime (or memory anyway lol.) We should be happy-- really happy-- if we just get one 10" storm each year. Of course, human nature being what it is, it's hard not feeling disappointed when you get a foot and someone 20 miles away gets over two feet (a la Feb 2006.) It feels like you missed your one opportunity because those kinds of events are supposed to be so rare. 2003 Presidents Day Storm did it too, Alex... But the 96 blizzard had the most widespread 30 inches or more, that's where it stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snow every 3 days or so for the entire run and I assume the rest of the winter. This is what happened in 1993-1994, so I know it can happen. I swore after that winter that if that ever happened again I would move somewhere warm. That winter even made snow lovers hate snow. Its more like 95/96. No where near the cold that 93/94 had. But both winters had storm after storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2003 Presidents Day Storm did it too, Alex... But the 96 blizzard had the most widespread 30 inches or more, that's where it stands alone. Oh ok, I just hear people complaining from the north shore about how they got only like 14-15 inches from that storm. But it was my biggest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z GFS coming in line with the westernmost guidance, but still a little de-amplified before closing off a little to the east, not too far off from the Euro's QPF and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Let's lock up this topic and continue discussion here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are the GFS ensembles out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z gfs ensembles mean at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We're going to also have to look at the magnetic field option-- although, how likely is that, since its been ongoing for a number of years now. Maybe it had some kind of stratospheric effect since we know it can also influence the ozone. I haven't seen any research correlating NAO variation with the magnetic field; however, I have seen plenty of strong correlations drawn between low geomagnetic activity and low NAO values (hence the basis for my winter forecast). Thinking back to the 1800s, we must have had some phenomenal winters in that century. Strong blocking induced by the very weak solar environment and plenty of cold air running around. I'm definitely concerned I'm going to bust low, maybe quite a bit low, on my NYC snowfall forecast of 25-32". I'll basically need the rest of the winter to be snowless after next week's event, which I strongly believe will be a SECS (6-12") deal from DCA-BOS. But that's fine with me. Would rather bust low than high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I haven't seen any research correlating NAO variation with the magnetic field; however, I have seen plenty of strong correlations drawn between low geomagnetic activity and low NAO values (hence the basis for my winter forecast). Thinking back to the 1800s, we must have had some phenomenal winters in that century. Strong blocking induced by the very weak solar environment and plenty of cold air running around. I'm definitely concerned I'm going to bust low, maybe quite a bit low, on my NYC snowfall forecast of 25-32". I'll basically need the rest of the winter to be snowless after next week's event, which I strongly believe will be a SECS (6-12") deal from DCA-BOS. But that's fine with me. Would rather bust low than high. I totally busted this winter, going with 19" seasonal total for NYC. I'm very surprised by how the strong -AO/-NAO has forced the storm track exceedingly far south, to the point where Atlanta and Huntsville can cash in, in the face of a strong La Niña. There's already been a plethora of coastal storms, and we look to be getting another one this week. The dearth of SW flow events has hurt the interior but been beneficial to NYC metro...I am really shocked we haven't seen more SW flow with the ENSO state being so strong. I don't see any break in the cold/stormy pattern either. After the coastal Tuesday/Wednesday, the arctic front with a potential wave forming along the front should be the next threat to track, and we'll see how cold we get after it. I could easily see -20C 850s making their way down to NYC/PHL if the front develops a strong wave. We have a potent PV over the Canadian Prairies with <-30C 850s due to the huge block over Alaska extending back into Siberia, forcing all the cold air onto the North American side of the hemisphere. Definitely going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I haven't seen any research correlating NAO variation with the magnetic field; however, I have seen plenty of strong correlations drawn between low geomagnetic activity and low NAO values (hence the basis for my winter forecast). Thinking back to the 1800s, we must have had some phenomenal winters in that century. Strong blocking induced by the very weak solar environment and plenty of cold air running around. I'm definitely concerned I'm going to bust low, maybe quite a bit low, on my NYC snowfall forecast of 25-32". I'll basically need the rest of the winter to be snowless after next week's event, which I strongly believe will be a SECS (6-12") deal from DCA-BOS. But that's fine with me. Would rather bust low than high. I wonder if the correlation could be geomag>>>AO>>>NAO. Youre right about the 1800s winters, there were some phenomenal ones in the 1830s. You need to read up on March 1843 which was amazingly 26 degrees below the norm nationwide with 3 intense snowstorms. Chris sent me the pdf and I'll link you. There is an excellent analysis in the paper which tries to determine what made that month so anomalous. It also has the tracks and analysis of MANY 1800s snowstorms! I wonder how these would have ranked on NESIS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/cyclone/lib/exe/fetch.php?id=start&cache=cache&media=tues2030.pdf from Chris: . It was COLDER than 97% of all JAN, FEB and 99% of DEC (FOR THE ENTIRE record keeping for MSP!) We had ONLY 10 DAYS ABOVE 32 DEGREES that month!!!!!!! HUGE -NAO just EPIC. Absolutely INSANE LOW HEIGHTS for the EAST. Wait until you see SLIDE 55, H850 TEMPS!!!!M March 15-16th had a MECS-HECS DC-NYC. IT WAS 26 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL for the overall month alone for USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would really be surprised if this does not trend closer to the coast with time...i really believe this will be a significant storm for those inland a ways - 6" + (and they are due! Tamaqua and State College included) I do think there will be mixing issues in coastal spots and LI which could hold down accumulations their a tad...but all in all I expect this to be a great hit for almost everyone within the Philly/NYC area. Enjoy! Paul www.chescowx.com I have to agree. I too, think it will trend closer to the coast. Tomorrows runs should show some kind of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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