tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .50 - .75 NYC metro.. 1.00 - 1.25 eastern LI... .25 - .5 most of NJ and eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .50 - .75 NYC metro.. 1.00 - 1.25 eastern LI... .25 - .5 most of NJ and eastern PA Hoping and praying for a shift west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Big pressure drop between hr 78 and 84 just east of delmarva. 850 zero line sneeks briefly up into Cape May and Atlantic counties in SNJ; then collapses back east with the beginning of the bomb. Big difference this run. Hiccup was quicker than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hoping and praying for a shift west! Lets hope the NAM is on to something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI is turning into the snow capital this year! This one should get some of the hole spots from interior PA northward as well with measurable snow. This actually looks like an avg winter storm on this run.///probably the most realistic of all guidance attm. I would say the GFS not only trended, but could be very close to the actual solution. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .50 - .75 NYC metro.. 1.00 - 1.25 eastern LI... .25 - .5 most of NJ and eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's also warmer this run. Surface temps hit freezing from the city eastward at 06z Wed before dropping, but precip is mostly over by 12z Big pressure drop between hr 78 and 84 just east of delmarva. 850 zero line sneeks briefly up into Cape May and Atlantic counties in SNJ; then collapses back east with the beginning of the bomb. Big difference this run. Hiccup was quicker than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI is turning into the snow capital this year! This one should get some of the hole spots from interior PA northward as well with measurable snow. Yea, it's clear the focus will be on the coast where the gradient will be set up. However, the phasing has to be perfect for ANYONE to get snow and it's hard for models to get that. Besides that, the storm will probably not track inland because of their gradient meaning that MBY won't be the best snows, but if I can get a 6-10"snowfall, I'd be pretty happy about that. full data ingest will occur at 0z tonight so tonight's runs will be just as critical if not more so then the 12z .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI hasn't done all that well relatively speaking.... yesterday and today we got screwed... and the blizzard gave us a general 12" - any totals north of 15" for LI from the boxing day blizzard are suspect to me.. Ya, we've done alright, but many other places have won out lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is close to the GGEM, a shade east. Consensus building for at least a moderate snowfall for the area and potentially significant especially from i95 and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Big difference on the QPF between 12Z and 18Z. Becoming a much better hit for NY...SNE. Definitely not ideal yet, but moving dramatically back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Why should this storm be any different. You want snow head East young man, head east. Coastal huggers with rain/snow lines near 95 are thing of the long past. Hoping and praying for a shift west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea, it's clear the focus will be on the coast where the gradient will be set up. However, the phasing has to be perfect for ANYONE to get snow and it's hard for models to get that. Besides that, the storm will probably not track inland because of their gradient meaning that MBY won't be the best snows, but if I can get a 6-10"snowfall, I'd be pretty happy about that. full data ingest will occur at 0z tonight so tonight's runs will be just as critical if not more so then the 12z .. Yep, the GFS is actually reasonable and very close to seasonal climatology imo. Greenland-ish block. Miller A. Dry slotting will probably be a concern for South Jersey into DCA and PHL this run verbatim. 4-6" warning criteria storm....I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is close to the GGEM, a shade east. Consensus building for at least a moderate snowfall for the area and potentially significant especially i05 and east Yeah, it does develop the system late tho so only a possible moderate snowfall south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI hasn't done all that well relatively speaking.... yesterday and today we got screwed... and the blizzard gave us a general 12" - any totals north of 15" for LI from the boxing day blizzard are suspect to me.. Ya, we've done alright, but many other places have won out lately.. Western Nassau County did very well with the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI hasn't done all that well relatively speaking.... yesterday and today we got screwed... and the blizzard gave us a general 12" - any totals north of 15" for LI from the boxing day blizzard are suspect to me.. Ya, we've done alright, but many other places have won out lately.. The best spot to be the last two seasons has been Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea, it's clear the focus will be on the coast where the gradient will be set up. However, the phasing has to be perfect for ANYONE to get snow and it's hard for models to get that. Besides that, the storm will probably not track inland because of their gradient meaning that MBY won't be the best snows, but if I can get a 6-10"snowfall, I'd be pretty happy about that. full data ingest will occur at 0z tonight so tonight's runs will be just as critical if not more so then the 12z .. It might not actually be until tomorrow or even tomorrow night until the data is fully ingested (as per the Upton discussion) so this could potentially trend further west-- though probably not inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The best spot to be the last two seasons has been Monmouth and Ocean Counties. you got that right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Between the fetch and the big pressure drop east of delmarva, one could definitely make the case that the the QPF is way underdone for Ern PA and NJ this GFS run. I'm confident that will be the correction we see tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The best spot to be the last two seasons has been Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Couldn't argue with you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It might not actually be until tomorrow or even tomorrow night until the data is fully ingested (as per the Upton discussion) so this could potentially trend further west-- though probably not inland. Agree, don't do the celebration dance just yet. The storm is on the map. Still some zigs and zags in the next couple of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, we've been doing great here in Monmouth County for the past 2 years. Got screwed two years before that. This storm looks like it's for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Couldn't argue with you there. Haha thanks-- not that I mind, because if youre the jackpot theres very little chance it changes over or even mixes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, we've been doing great here in Monmouth County for the past 2 years. Funny enough the previous year or so we were getting screwed. Snow was to our north and to our south. I will never forget going to the Paul Kocin book signing in Feb 2009 and he said to me "You're from Monmouth county? That area has been getting absolutely screwed past two years". 1986-87 was probably the king of Monmouth County winters in terms of variance with NYC.... 60 inches there and like 25 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LI hasn't done all that well relatively speaking.... yesterday and today we got screwed... and the blizzard gave us a general 12" - any totals north of 15" for LI from the boxing day blizzard are suspect to me.. Ya, we've done alright, but many other places have won out lately.. It's statements like this that truly indicate how spoiled we've been over the past few years. Before that, getting 12" from a storm would have been amazing, no one would have complained. Now, 12" just isn't good enough, it's got to be 20". I could only imagine if things reverse back to the 1980s where a 12" snow event was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. People would probably lose their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1986-87 was probably the king of Monmouth County winters in terms of variance with NYC.... 60 inches there and like 25 in NYC Yeah...same thing further south. I lived in Folsom/Hammonton area (interior Srn NJ) at that time, and we totally cashed in that winter too. I believe we were up over 50" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's statements like this that truly indicate how spoiled we've been over the past few years. Before that, getting 12" from a storm would have been amazing, no one would have complained. Now, 12" just isn't good enough, it's got to be 20". I could only imagine if things reverse back to the 1980s where a 12" snow event was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. People would probably lose their minds. Everything is always relative. When you're starving, even a morsel looks great. When you're stuffed, you're looking for that big chocolate-topped dessert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The best spot to be the last two seasons has been Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Definitely, they've really had an incredible stretch between this season so far, last season, and even the March 2009 storm (which dumped 10+ inches on them I believe). I feel like I've kind of been in the "worst" spot in NJ over the last two seasons, but I'm not really complaining much considering that I've still had almost 60 inches since December 19, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's statements like this that truly indicate how spoiled we've been over the past few years. Before that, getting 12" from a storm would have been amazing, no one would have complained. Now, 12" just isn't good enough, it's got to be 20". I could only imagine if things reverse back to the 1980s where a 12" snow event was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. People would probably lose their minds. My complaint is only relative in nature... I lived through the 80's - i know it was bad.. I fully realize a 12" snowstorm for LI is phenomenal.. But when other locations get DOUBLE what you got, it can get a little frustrating.. And the past two days have stunk- the NWS went ape **** initially w/ a WSW... we barely got advisory level snow here.. we couldn't even muster several inches.. in fact most of yesterday was a waste until we had that heavy band put down 1-2 inches in an hour late in the day.. I know that i'm being ridiculous for the most part. Anyway- we'll see how the next few days work out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's statements like this that truly indicate how spoiled we've been over the past few years. Before that, getting 12" from a storm would have been amazing, no one would have complained. Now, 12" just isn't good enough, it's got to be 20". I could only imagine if things reverse back to the 1980s where a 12" snow event was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. People would probably lose their minds. Exactly. NYC did not record a 12" snowfall between February 1983 and March 1993. That's 10 years for an event we now seem to expect every year. We have been massively lucky since 08-09, and really since 00-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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